Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

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HS Thompson
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by HS Thompson »

Zoue wrote:

Once again the "problem" highlighted here has nothing to do with the EV itself and everything to do with infrastructure. If the energy source is hydrocarbon, then that's something that needs to be addressed in the infrastructure, not the vehicle. But many countries have embarked on renewable energy programs. Norway, for example, has invested heavily in windfarms and is already a world leader in hydropower. It also, not so coincidentally, has one of the highest numbers of electric cars per capita in the world. Clearly, there they are not "overjoyed at powering cars with coal, natural gas...or nuclear power." Other countries are also making inroads in this area. Yes, some may not be there yet but that doesn't mean the whole concept of EVs is flawed. This kind of stuff doesn't happen overnight


While I agree that the use of green fuels like hydro and wind is on the increase, listening to the rabid crowd here one would think that the rate of increase is so high that fossil fuels and nuclear are going away in the near future. Seriously, the delusions here are enormous.

First off, not every country can adapt to wind and hydro power the way Norway can. For all of it's good, demographically, Norway is utterly insignificant to the world's energy consumption.

Coal power plants are STILL being built at a prodigious rate today. China and India alone will add over 300 power plants to the world in just a single year. Hundreds of millions of tons of coal burned every year.

Nuclear plants are under construction. While they dont produce CO2 or any other air worthy pollutants (when intact), they produce tremendous amounts of highly lethal waste that needs to be stored for *thousands of years*.

If you listen to the global warming hysterics, we are, TODAY, at the breaking point of climate catastrophe. We dont have hundreds of years to change. We need to change TODAY. Not going to happen.

Most western countries cannot afford the massive change to green power, even if it were possible. Most western countries are fundamentally bankrupt. The US has 17 trillion dollars in debt. Imagine the cost of retiring the United States' *ONE HUNDRED* nuclear power plants. It is an astonishing figure. They arent going anywhere until they must be retired.

The US has slightly less than 500 coal power plants. The trend is declining but coal plants are being replaced by natural gas, NOT hydro or wind. Natural gas plant construction has seen a very substantial increase as coal declines.

The US makes about 13% of its power from renewable sources. That was the easy part, the low hanging fruit. Going further, driving up that percentages is going to be much much slower because of the massive, absolutely massive inertia (cost) of dismantling the current power system. The US simply doesnt have the money. It has all be squandered on the world's largest military and propping up zombie banks.

The same is true of most major industrial nations.

The idea that electric power is going to convert to green sources substantially in our lifetime is virtually nil.

Zoue
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by Zoue »

HS Thompson wrote:
Zoue wrote:

Once again the "problem" highlighted here has nothing to do with the EV itself and everything to do with infrastructure. If the energy source is hydrocarbon, then that's something that needs to be addressed in the infrastructure, not the vehicle. But many countries have embarked on renewable energy programs. Norway, for example, has invested heavily in windfarms and is already a world leader in hydropower. It also, not so coincidentally, has one of the highest numbers of electric cars per capita in the world. Clearly, there they are not "overjoyed at powering cars with coal, natural gas...or nuclear power." Other countries are also making inroads in this area. Yes, some may not be there yet but that doesn't mean the whole concept of EVs is flawed. This kind of stuff doesn't happen overnight


While I agree that the use of green fuels like hydro and wind is on the increase, listening to the rabid crowd here one would think that the rate of increase is so high that fossil fuels and nuclear are going away in the near future. Seriously, the delusions here are enormous.

First off, not every country can adapt to wind and hydro power the way Norway can. For all of it's good, demographically, Norway is utterly insignificant to the world's energy consumption.

Coal power plants are STILL being built at a prodigious rate today. China and India alone will add over 300 power plants to the world in just a single year. Hundreds of millions of tons of coal burned every year.

Nuclear plants are under construction. While they dont produce CO2 or any other air worthy pollutants (when intact), they produce tremendous amounts of highly lethal waste that needs to be stored for *thousands of years*.

If you listen to the global warming hysterics, we are, TODAY, at the breaking point of climate catastrophe. We dont have hundreds of years to change. We need to change TODAY. Not going to happen.

Most western countries cannot afford the massive change to green power, even if it were possible. Most western countries are fundamentally bankrupt. The US has 17 trillion dollars in debt. Imagine the cost of retiring the United States' *ONE HUNDRED* nuclear power plants. It is an astonishing figure. They arent going anywhere until they must be retired.

The US has slightly less than 500 coal power plants. The trend is declining but coal plants are being replaced by natural gas, NOT hydro or wind. Natural gas plant construction has seen a very substantial increase as coal declines.

The US makes about 13% of its power from renewable sources. That was the easy part, the low hanging fruit. Going further, driving up that percentages is going to be much much slower because of the massive, absolutely massive inertia (cost) of dismantling the current power system. The US simply doesnt have the money. It has all be squandered on the world's largest military and propping up zombie banks.

The same is true of most major industrial nations.

The idea that electric power is going to convert to green sources substantially in our lifetime is virtually nil.

It's true that there's still a long way to go as far as infrastructure goes, but that doesn't mean that that will be the same for EV usage, which after all was the crux of this thread. It just highlights how some countries have their planning at a much more advanced stage than others. But infrastructure covers a lot more than just cars, so I don't think it's fair to say EVs aren't practical unless the fuel source is renewable.

The Netherlands have apparently tabled a motion to ban the sale of hydrocarbon-based cars after 2025. On it's own this won't change the world, but you can bet other countries will be following this closely. Norway is also apparently considering something similar, as is Germany, while this article claims that several states in the U.S.A. are looking to follow suit. And it'll only snowball from there. As more and more get on the bandwagon petrol cars will face a tougher time of it, which inevitably means that most manufacturers will try to beat the curve with more and more EVs and correspondingly fewer ICE models. Eventually it's ICE cars that will become a rarity and at the current rate of progress it's looking like happening sooner rather than later. And when that happens, it will become less and less viable for manufacturers to continue producing ICE cars, as apart from legislation the infrastructure will stop supporting them. And this will include Ferrari. If Monaco becomes a zero emission zone, then you can bet Ferrari won't want all those elite customers defecting to the EV opposition. They'll be making EV cars too if it makes business sense, I'll bet.

As for time scales. 2025 is less than 9 years away. 2050 less than 34. It's not that long in the grand scheme of things and, while it's quite possible I won't be around by then, it's just as possible that I might outlast petrol car production. Just.

ALESI
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by ALESI »

In that case, F1 will have to become fully electric in the next ten years. Wonder if they'll have fake noises to make it sound exciting?
Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

RaggedMan
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by RaggedMan »

HS Thompson wrote:While I agree that the use of green fuels like hydro and wind is on the increase, listening to the rabid crowd here one would think that the rate of increase is so high that fossil fuels and nuclear are going away in the near future. Seriously, the delusions here are enormous.

First off, not every country can adapt to wind and hydro power the way Norway can. For all of it's good, demographically, Norway is utterly insignificant to the world's energy consumption.

Coal power plants are STILL being built at a prodigious rate today. China and India alone will add over 300 power plants to the world in just a single year. Hundreds of millions of tons of coal burned every year.

Nuclear plants are under construction. While they dont produce CO2 or any other air worthy pollutants (when intact), they produce tremendous amounts of highly lethal waste that needs to be stored for *thousands of years*.

If you listen to the global warming hysterics, we are, TODAY, at the breaking point of climate catastrophe. We dont have hundreds of years to change. We need to change TODAY. Not going to happen.

Most western countries cannot afford the massive change to green power, even if it were possible. Most western countries are fundamentally bankrupt. The US has 17 trillion dollars in debt. Imagine the cost of retiring the United States' *ONE HUNDRED* nuclear power plants. It is an astonishing figure. They arent going anywhere until they must be retired.

The US has slightly less than 500 coal power plants. The trend is declining but coal plants are being replaced by natural gas, NOT hydro or wind. Natural gas plant construction has seen a very substantial increase as coal declines.

The US makes about 13% of its power from renewable sources. That was the easy part, the low hanging fruit. Going further, driving up that percentages is going to be much much slower because of the massive, absolutely massive inertia (cost) of dismantling the current power system. The US simply doesnt have the money. It has all be squandered on the world's largest military and propping up zombie banks.

The same is true of most major industrial nations.

The idea that electric power is going to convert to green sources substantially in our lifetime is virtually nil.

Rabid crowd? Really? Most of the more hyperbolic statements I've read in this thread are from those denying the eventual move away from petroleum based fuels.

As to your carrying on about the costs of changing over the infrastructure to cleaner/renewable energy your doing apples to oranges. Yes the US government has a large debt and is running deficit budgets, but that has nothing to do with building out and improving the electric grid because building those plants and running the power transmission lines are private affairs and not funded by the state or federal governments.

They do take advantage of tax breaks and land easements but the cost of building the plants and running the lines come from the companies. And as the demand increases it will be in their interest to make the investment as more of the money that the oil industry now takes in moves over to those who supply the electricity.

Edited to fix quoting
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ALESI
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by ALESI »

I wonder if the NHRA will start an electric series?
Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

HS Thompson
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by HS Thompson »

ALESI wrote:In that case, F1 will have to become fully electric in the next ten years. Wonder if they'll have fake noises to make it sound exciting?


:lol: :lol: :lol:

HS Thompson
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by HS Thompson »

Zoue wrote: It just highlights how some countries have their planning at a much more advanced stage than others. But infrastructure covers a lot more than just cars, so I don't think it's fair to say EVs aren't practical unless the fuel source is renewable.




I was not arguing that EV's arent practical unless they are powered by renewable fuels. Rather, the point is, that there is very little gain if electric cars are powered by fossil fuels. Electric power plants are probably THE dirtiest polluters in industry (aside from accidental releases). Coal produces all kinds of pollution, natural gas emits enormous amount of CO2 as well as various oxides, and nuclear produces lethal waste as well as poses an enormous environmental risk from accidents.

Hooking up 50 million cars to the electric grid is going to produce enormous pollution.

I guess out of sight, out of mind prevails here.

ALESI
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by ALESI »

Thinking about this more, I can actually believe that Ferrari will stick with the ICE. Who's to say they haven't already asked their customers if they want / would buy an electric Ferrari. Most Ferrari's are bought by existing customers, I think. And a lot of those customers are in the Middle East. No shortage of petrol there, and probably not much love for electric cars either I would think!

So this then potentially puts Ferrari at odds with F1. If petrol cars are seriously to be legislated against by 2025 then F1 will become E1 by say, 2022. Why would Ferrari wish to take part in F1 if it has nothing to do with their product. This gives F1 a headache and a half, since we all know how IMPORTANT Ferrari is to F1....
Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

Zoue
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by Zoue »

HS Thompson wrote:
Zoue wrote: It just highlights how some countries have their planning at a much more advanced stage than others. But infrastructure covers a lot more than just cars, so I don't think it's fair to say EVs aren't practical unless the fuel source is renewable.




I was not arguing that EV's arent practical unless they are powered by renewable fuels. Rather, the point is, that there is very little gain if electric cars are powered by fossil fuels. Electric power plants are probably THE dirtiest polluters in industry (aside from accidental releases). Coal produces all kinds of pollution, natural gas emits enormous amount of CO2 as well as various oxides, and nuclear produces lethal waste as well as poses an enormous environmental risk from accidents.

Hooking up 50 million cars to the electric grid is going to produce enormous pollution.

I guess out of sight, out of mind prevails here.

Not really. I don't agree that's the case at all.

There are two separate issues here. It's wrong to dismiss EVs on the basis that the electric power plants are polluters. The plants would be there whether or not electric cars exist: they're just an additional user at the plug. And there are plenty of other things that draw energy. Yes, it's a good idea to challenge the electric sources, but it doesn't invalidate the advantages of electric cars themselves. They still offer tremendous benefits in cities, for example.

And many countries are working towards renewable targets:

With respect to the objectives set by the EU 20-20-20 strategy, nine Member states have already reached the level required to meet their national renewable energy targets for 2020: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Italy, Lithuania, Romania, Finland and Sweden. Moreover, Denmark and Austria are less than 1 percentage point from their 2020 targets, Eurostat stated. The furthest away from their renewable energy goals are: France (8.7 percentage points from reaching its national 2020 objective), the Netherlands (8.5 pp), the United Kingdom (8.0 pp) and Ireland (7.4 pp).

European GHG emissions were already 19.8 percent below 1990 levels in 2013 and are expected to reach a reduction of 24 percent by 2020 with the current measures in place. Additional measures currently planned by Member States could further reduce emissions to 25 percent below 1990 levels.

http://climateobserver.org/nine-eu-countries-achieved-2020-renewable-energy-target/

And that's just the European Union. Clearly, steps are being taken to reduce emissions and these will only improve as time goes on. But as mentioned this won't happen overnight. EVs themselves are just part of the broader picture and shouldn't be seen as some kind of all-in package with the power plants. They offer tangible benefits in their own right and should be judged on their own merits.

Zoue
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by Zoue »

ALESI wrote:Thinking about this more, I can actually believe that Ferrari will stick with the ICE. Who's to say they haven't already asked their customers if they want / would buy an electric Ferrari. Most Ferrari's are bought by existing customers, I think. And a lot of those customers are in the Middle East. No shortage of petrol there, and probably not much love for electric cars either I would think!

So this then potentially puts Ferrari at odds with F1. If petrol cars are seriously to be legislated against by 2025 then F1 will become E1 by say, 2022. Why would Ferrari wish to take part in F1 if it has nothing to do with their product. This gives F1 a headache and a half, since we all know how IMPORTANT Ferrari is to F1....

Only one country (to my knowledge) has proposed definite legislation against new petrol/diesel cars by 2025. I don't know how serious the other countries are nor how advanced their own proposals are. I doubt very much everything will shut down by 2025. I have as much chance of spotting a UFO as a charging point in much of the UK, for example. In order for electrical takeup to increase they at least have to do something about that and until they do it's not going to happen. And knowing how the UK tackles infrastructure projects I don't see a major surge anytime soon. Likewise for the majority of Mediterranean countries. It will happen eventually, but in the next 9 years? To say I'd be surprised would be an understatement.

But it will happen eventually, unless some as-yet undiscovered technology comes to light. And when it does Ferrari will undoubtedly join the club. By then who knows how far battery technology will have come? The Tesla would have been laughed at as science fiction just a decade ago: now I see several every time I take a road trip. In ten or twenty years time how much further progress will have been made? Despite their protestations Ferrari won't hold out indefinitely.

ALESI
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by ALESI »

Also, people are very fond of saying you just park your car on your drive at night and charge it. What about all the countless houses in the UK that don't have drives, indeed there are many, many places in the UK where you are lucky if you can park outside your own house. My ex girlfriend used to live in a house in Corby which had no vehicle access at all, and there was a whole estate of houses like that. There was a communal carpark, but I can't imagine the scroty kids who smashed every window in her car one night - just for fun - being good citizens and leaving everyone's trailing cables alone.
I'm not saying it's impossible, but charging time is going to have to come down to the point where you can realistically charge your car in five minutes or these people aren't going to want to know.
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ALESI
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by ALESI »

A law which mandated the death of the ICE would surely also cause a lot of problems leading up to the date. If the taxes are going to be prohibitive then the resale values will plunge and people will hold off buying petrol cars, but not buy electric cars if they feel that they are not good enough yet. This could actually cause a recession.

And going back to Ferrari, what happens in 2020 when the new Concorde agreement needs signing. Will Ferrari require guarantees that F1 will not go electric? How can F1 promise that if it must go fully electric to be considered cutting edge. What about the other sponsors, will they demand that F1 gets rid of the nasty evil petrol?

I see troubles ahead.
Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

HS Thompson
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by HS Thompson »

ALESI wrote:Also, people are very fond of saying you just park your car on your drive at night and charge it. What about all the countless houses in the UK that don't have drives, indeed there are many, many places in the UK where you are lucky if you can park outside your own house. My ex girlfriend used to live in a house in Corby which had no vehicle access at all, and there was a whole estate of houses like that. There was a communal carpark, but I can't imagine the scroty kids who smashed every window in her car one night - just for fun - being good citizens and leaving everyone's trailing cables alone.
I'm not saying it's impossible, but charging time is going to have to come down to the point where you can realistically charge your car in five minutes or these people aren't going to want to know.


Good point. 80% of the people in my old neighborhood cannot park there cars anywhere near their houses. It's street parking only, and I'd say 2 or 3 days out of the month you are lucky if you can park on the same street as your house, never mind being close to it.

How in the world would these people charge their cars on a daily basis?

Edit: thinking more about my old neighborhood, I recall (sadly) more than a few times when I would park my car on Friday and then on Monday morning not remember where I left it, sometimes leaving me with no option but to walk up and down a few streets trying to remember which parking space I found 3 days ago.

Great neighborhood, but not fun for owning a car.

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ShaneM
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by ShaneM »

Give me 6 Billion in tax payer money, and I'll create one hell of a Electric car also. Elon Musk is no great engineer or business man, he has gotten filthy rich of the back's of the American tax payer. And I have no problem with getting rich, just not by forcing people to pay for it through public money.

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mcdo
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Re: Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne on E Cars

Post by mcdo »

ShaneM wrote:Give me 6 Billion in tax payer money, and I'll create one hell of a Electric car also. Elon Musk is no great engineer or business man, he has gotten filthy rich of the back's of the American tax payer. And I have no problem with getting rich, just not by forcing people to pay for it through public money.

I don't know how to respond, you could be sarcastic here or straight up honest. I can't tell through this particular Internet thread...

Either way, the fossil fuel resources will run out. The sportscar producers should adapt (and they have feckin' started!). Ferrari can soldier on throughout our lifetime, but the day their ICE starts losing out to their EV (and that WILL happen), Sergio Marchionne will get the blame for being so short-sighted... even if he's 100 years or more dead. It's happening no matter what
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