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Vettel must be favourite, if Lewis goes on a run he could overtake Alonso by the end of the year.

Well Hamilton's the only one winning anything at the moment. Have the other two got any race wins left in them? Will Hamilton have a drive in a competitive car after 2015?

Definitely Vettel...I don't see Alonso going past 40-45 wins..I definitely see Vettel going past 50 and Lewis will finish somewhere in between

Schumi, 91 wins.

I have wondered this in the past. Had to say Vettel - so many already but still so much time left to add to his tally.

DOLOMITE wrote:I have wondered this in the past. Had to say Vettel - so many already but still so much time left to add to his tally.

Before this season I would entirely agree, but it seems maybe it was just the car and a slow team mate alongside him all along.
Damon Hill racked up 21 wins in 4 seasons at Williams. He is a great driver, but how great is unfolding..

lamo wrote:

DOLOMITE wrote:I have wondered this in the past. Had to say Vettel - so many already but still so much time left to add to his tally.

Before this season I would entirely agree, but it seems maybe it was just the car and a slow team mate alongside him all along.
Damon Hill racked up 21 wins in 4 seasons at Williams. He is a great driver, but how great is unfolding..

Incoming Fiki!

OK a quick and pointless extrapolation exercise

Assumes
all 3 continue winning at the same rate they have done to date in their careers (i.e % of wins from starts)
all 3 retire age 36
all seasons have 19 races

They'd end up with

Vettel = 90
Hamilton = 53
Alonso = 40

Vettel most likely. Red Bull are already getting nearer the front again and he's already on more than the other two. I don't know how long Hamilton will stay at Merc after this year, nor how long they can sustain the level they have shown this season.

Vettel is also the youngest of the three. Everything points towards him.

It depends on their situations. I remember that everyone thought Jacques Villeneuve would break every F1 record after his first 2 years but he went on to never win another race.

Winning a ton of races has to do with being in dominant machinery. Vettel has had a long spell in a dominant car at an earlier point in his career than anyone in the sport's history. One more spell like that and he can break the records. Hamilton seems to be coming into such a spell right now so we may see his totals soar over the next few seasons. Alonso has had competitive machinery in several seasons but never dominant machinery. That combined with his age makes it unlikely that he will win the most out of these three.

Ultimately, time will tell. In all likelihood, Vettel will never again have a 4 year stretch in the best car in the field. Hamilton too had better make the most of these next few years because they are likely to be the most fruitful of his career. I remember when Alonso was a young kid who became the youngest ever race winner. Now he's a 33 year old veteran with most of his career behind him. It goes by fast...

DOLOMITE wrote:OK a quick and pointless extrapolation exercise

Assumes
all 3 continue winning at the same rate they have done to date in their careers (i.e % of wins from starts)
all 3 retire age 36
all seasons have 19 races

They'd end up with

Vettel = 90
Hamilton = 53
Alonso = 40

soo..

91 Schumacher
90 Vettel
53 Hamilton
51 Prost
41 Senna
40 Alonso
31 Mansell
27 Stewart
25 Clark
25 Lauda

You read it here first

Vettel. Youngest and has most wins.

What's the pole stats by the way? Alonso is sometimes unfairly beaten with the stick he isn't a great qualifier. But he's just not often been in the car with superior one lap pace. Which the Red Bull and last years and this years Merc have. (last years merc was great over one lap first half of the season)

DOLOMITE wrote:OK a quick and pointless extrapolation exercise

Assumes
all 3 continue winning at the same rate they have done to date in their careers (i.e % of wins from starts)
all 3 retire age 36
all seasons have 19 races

They'd end up with

Vettel = 90
Hamilton = 53
Alonso = 40

Your post should not have continued past the red text

DOLOMITE wrote:

DOLOMITE wrote:OK a quick and pointless extrapolation exercise

Assumes
all 3 continue winning at the same rate they have done to date in their careers (i.e % of wins from starts)
all 3 retire age 36
all seasons have 19 races

They'd end up with

Vettel = 90
Hamilton = 53
Alonso = 40

soo..

91 Schumacher
90 Vettel
53 Hamilton
51 Prost
41 Senna
40 Alonso
31 Mansell
27 Stewart
25 Clark
25 Lauda

You read it here first

I can quite easily see Nico Rosberg retiring with more than 25 wins.

As for the OP's question, you can eliminate Alonso because Ferrari almost certainly won't get their act together any time soon, and he may well regress or even retire (though the latter is unlikely) when his current contract ends in 2016. Nando will struggle to get to 40 wins, but nontheless I will almost certainly remember him as the best driver of his generation.

That leaves Vettel and Hamilton to fight it out, and it all depends on whichever one ends up in the right team at the right time. I expect both of them end up with 55-75 wins but Schumacher's total won't be significantly threatened.
What I will say is that Vettel will be extremely lucky to end up in a Red Bull style situation where he has a dominant car and an inferior team-mate. Given he is probably not a top 3 driver of the sport, he will need that scenario to occur again if he wants to get to 91 wins.

I'd guess Vettel, as not only is he the youngest but drives in a strong team, as has already been pointed out. Hamilton is only two years older and drives in a stronger team than Vettel right now, but I wouldn't be certain of that being the case for many years to come (of course, whatever paths Vettel's career will go are an equal unknown). The current difference of twelve wins isn't exactly peanuts either - Hamilton is currently in a favourable position to catch up, but faces competition from Rosberg. In the other side of the ring, Vettel will face stiff competition from Ricciardo or whoever his teammate will be if he once again gets a car that can consistently challenge for wins.

Alonso is very improbable. I'd think both Vettel and Hamilton will be in F1 for quite a while after he has retired, and with Vettel already ahead of him and Hamilton likely to pass him in a not-all-too-distant future he'd need a monster car in the next few years to be able to beat the other two.

I also think Schumacher's record will remain unbroken. We saw two years of Vettel dominating (2011 and 2013), and something similar could happen to him or another driver at some point, but it would need to happen for a longer period than that. Even a dominant car such as Mercedes but with two drivers both winning their share of races may not be enough, even if it happens for several years.

I'd guess Vettel, as not only is he the youngest but drives in a strong team, as has already been pointed out. Hamilton is only two years older and drives in a stronger team than Vettel right now, but I wouldn't be certain of that being the case for many years to come (of course, whatever paths Vettel's career will go are an equal unknown). The current difference of twelve wins isn't exactly peanuts either - Hamilton is currently in a favourable position to catch up, but faces competition from Rosberg. In the other side of the ring, Vettel will face stiff competition from Ricciardo or whoever his teammate will be if he once again gets a car that can consistently challenge for wins.

Alonso is very improbable. I'd think both Vettel and Hamilton will be in F1 for quite a while after he has retired, and with Vettel already ahead of him and Hamilton likely to pass him in a not-all-too-distant future he'd need a monster car in the next few years to be able to beat the other two.

I also think Schumacher's record will remain unbroken. We saw two years of Vettel dominating (2011 and 2013), and something similar could happen to him or another driver at some point, but it would need to happen for a longer period than that. Even a dominant car such as Mercedes but with two drivers both winning their share of races may not be enough, even if it happens for several years.

I wouldn't rule out a new face coming up and grabbing a big percentage of wins in the few years to come either. Rosberg isn't exactly a new face, but he's already in a dominant car taking wins Hamilton could potentially take in order to improve his count of wins when he has the car to do so. Who knows, someone who may not be considered a top driver quite yet could be an eight-time WDC from 2015 onward and all three drivers discussed would end up with few more wins than they already had!

Vettel, the youngest and has the most already.

I'd be amazed if Alonso breaks 40 tbh. He had his best chance to win one in Hungary and didn't and I don't see them getting as good as chance as that again this year. Next year Ferrari have said they'll be better, but I've lost all faith in them so at best he's fighting for scraps again next year.

Hamilton should finish somewhere in the 40-55 range. Assuming Merc remain competitive and he stays there.

I'd put Vettel at about 60% to finish with the highest win total of the three, Hamilton at about 35%, and Alonso at about 5%.

I just don't see Alonso winning in bunches any time soon. Hamilton can and has won in any kind of equipment he has had (yes he always has above average stuff, not always the best though -Hamilton will always be on a competitive team). Vettel has yet to win this year in a Red Bull that is capable of winning. I don't see Vettel having the dominance he had over the last four years ever again and I don't think he is quite capable of winning 2-3-4x per year in the 2nd best or lower car with DR as his teammate.

Rosberg is much more competitive than Webber was - and I don't see Lewis ever dominating him like Seb did Mark for long stretches.

So in short, I see Lewis continuing to close the gap to Seb possibly over the remainder of his career, but I see Seb winning just often enough to stay ahead and possibly driving longer to get ahead if he fell just behind.

Alonso is just too old to catch Seb and keep Lewis behind if they all keep racing. He would need a dominant car with a lapdog teammate to rack up enough wins to do that.

But if Alonso joined Hamilton at a dominant Mercedes I think it would guarantee Seb finished ahead since they would each take a lot of wins off each other.

Kvyat > Vergne = Ricciardo > Vettel.

That's how this forum is rolling! What DOLOMITE might be missing is the fact that all drivers have their youth spells in in competitive machinery and therefore Vettel's win frequency is hindered more than that of Alonso and certainly of Lewis, who had competitive machinery for his entire career.

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:Kvyat > Vergne = Ricciardo > Vettel.

That's how this forum is rolling! What DOLOMITE might be missing is the fact that all drivers have their youth spells in in competitive machinery and therefore Vettel's win frequency is hindered more than that of Alonso and certainly of Lewis, who had competitive machinery for his entire career.

I get your point but Alonso did driver a year for a Minardi and had less wins after his first 60 races than Vettel. Much less.

I think it will be Vettel.

Alonso is the great of the generation but is running out of time. He will probably be retired before 22.

If Lewis won another couple of tittles I don't see him continuing as an F1 driver to the age that Alonso and Vettel will. I think Lewis could reitre by the time he is 35. Its weird to me to think Lewis could well be closer to the end of his career than the beginning!

Vettel I think really seems to love F1 and could be around until he is 40. I think he will end up the most experienced F1 driver ever. Maybe with Rosberg for competition.

DOLOMITE wrote:

lamo wrote:

DOLOMITE wrote:I have wondered this in the past. Had to say Vettel - so many already but still so much time left to add to his tally.

Before this season I would entirely agree, but it seems maybe it was just the car and a slow team mate alongside him all along.
Damon Hill racked up 21 wins in 4 seasons at Williams. He is a great driver, but how great is unfolding..

Incoming Fiki!

You rang, m'Lord?

It is always the car. That's what elevated Vettel above Webber, and it's what elevates Ricciardo above Vettel. I doubt Sebastian will keep struggling to adapt as he did earlier this season. He went furthest down the BD-route, he has further to retreat.

I must say that a few years ago, I would have voted Alonso. Isn't it remarkable (I would almost say weird) that he bought himself a seat that would bring him little more than blood, toil sweat and tears?
Hamilton is a mystery to me; I couldn't see him leaving McLaren. He did, and now I can't see him staying at Mercedes for any long stretch. Which is probably what he will end up doing... So... Hamilton! No! Vettel!

As for Damon Hill; I think it took him too long to land a seat in F1. But hey, he won two titles, so how bad can he have been?

mikeyg123 wrote:

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:Kvyat > Vergne = Ricciardo > Vettel.

That's how this forum is rolling! What DOLOMITE might be missing is the fact that all drivers have their youth spells in in competitive machinery and therefore Vettel's win frequency is hindered more than that of Alonso and certainly of Lewis, who had competitive machinery for his entire career.

I get your point but Alonso did driver a year for a Minardi and had less wins after his first 60 races than Vettel. Much less.

I think it will be Vettel.

Alonso is the great of the generation but is running out of time. He will probably be retired before 22.

If Lewis won another couple of tittles I don't see him continuing as an F1 driver to the age that Alonso and Vettel will. I think Lewis could reitre by the time he is 35. Its weird to me to think Lewis could well be closer to the end of his career than the beginning!

Vettel I think really seems to love F1 and could be around until he is 40. I think he will end up the most experienced F1 driver ever. Maybe with Rosberg for competition.

I'm not convinced he does love F1 I think he loves racing. He has been complaining a lot to the press about the regulation changes and hybrid power etc.

As for who will finish most, whoever gets the longest run in competitive machinery. Stats will show vettel has dominated the past 4-5 years on the whole, however I won't remember him as one of the greatest.. Just my opinion, I don't take massive stock in stats alone.

The thing is, Ferrari could go on a Schumi-era style dominant run for 5 years. With Alonso winning 10+ races then retiring as a 7 time champion.

Vettel could end up in a terrible Red bull for 2015 and 2016 then decide to move in 2017 but end up in a car that is terrible that year.

So much of F1 is down to the car, it can partially be dumb luck. You can review all the facts and figures available, but part of it is a leap of faith.


However, I think it will be Vettel.

I think, in both wins and WDCs, the leader board will read:
1) Vettel
2) Schumi

I don't particularly want to see that happen. I'd like to see both Hamilton and Alonso also win at least 1 more WDC each. But I think once Seb gets fully used to a car he's a demon. Ricciardo impressive this year and beating Seb Vettel, but I do not predict that it will last.

In the end, if Vettel does end up ahead on the leaderboards, no shame to either of the other guys. Both have very impressive win totals and at least a World Title. No one can take that away.

applying the same ratio to all current winners gives you

90 Vettel
53 Hamilton
40 Alonso
24 Raikkonen
17 Button
14 Massa
13 Rosberg
9 Ricciardo

but if Rosberg and Hamilton were to win the remaining races say 5-3 to Hamilton, you'd get

90 Vettel
61 Hamilton
40 Alonso
25 Rosberg
24 Raikkonen
17 Button
14 Massa
9 Ricciardo

mikeyg123 wrote:

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:Kvyat > Vergne = Ricciardo > Vettel.

That's how this forum is rolling! What DOLOMITE might be missing is the fact that all drivers have their youth spells in in competitive machinery and therefore Vettel's win frequency is hindered more than that of Alonso and certainly of Lewis, who had competitive machinery for his entire career.

I get your point but Alonso did driver a year for a Minardi and had less wins after his first 60 races than Vettel. Much less.

I think it will be Vettel.

Alonso is the great of the generation but is running out of time. He will probably be retired before 22.

If Lewis won another couple of tittles I don't see him continuing as an F1 driver to the age that Alonso and Vettel will. I think Lewis could reitre by the time he is 35. Its weird to me to think Lewis could well be closer to the end of his career than the beginning!

Vettel I think really seems to love F1 and could be around until he is 40. I think he will end up the most experienced F1 driver ever. Maybe with Rosberg for competition.

Before 22!? Btw, why do you think Lewis won't continue after he's 35 years old? Is it that he might get bored of it? The thing about Vettel is that he has only raced like 7 seasons in F1 with like 2 in uncompetitive cars. Alonso has around 12 with idk how many in an uncompetitve car, probably around 2. So that's 2/7 of Vettels car in a poor car while 2/12 for Alonso. That's what I was kind of talking about. But, yeah, Vettel must have the most race wins in the end.

Somebody should buy a team, rename it The Most Wins and ask a driver whether he would like to see his career out in that team.

Of the three I think it's down to Seb and Lewis. I don't forsee things ending well for Fernando. Just not in the right place at the right time like Seb was.

In the end it's hard not to think that Red Bull won't fight back and even things up.

As dominant as Mercedes is right now, I have to think it's going to be Seb.

Schumacher forever#1 wrote: Before 22!? Btw, why do you think Lewis won't continue after he's 35 years old? Is it that he might get bored of it? The thing about Vettel is that he has only raced like 7 seasons in F1 with like 2 in uncompetitive cars. Alonso has around 12 with idk how many in an uncompetitve car, probably around 2. So that's 2/7 of Vettels car in a poor car while 2/12 for Alonso. That's what I was kind of talking about. But, yeah, Vettel must have the most race wins in the end.

People are actually writing "like" now.. that's funny. Sorry... that's like, funny.
Do you actually say "lol" instead of laughing? Mind you, if you did it would really be lol..ol wouldn't it?

DOLOMITE wrote:

Schumacher forever#1 wrote: Before 22!? Btw, why do you think Lewis won't continue after he's 35 years old? Is it that he might get bored of it? The thing about Vettel is that he has only raced like 7 seasons in F1 with like 2 in uncompetitive cars. Alonso has around 12 with idk how many in an uncompetitve car, probably around 2. So that's 2/7 of Vettels car in a poor car while 2/12 for Alonso. That's what I was kind of talking about. But, yeah, Vettel must have the most race wins in the end.

People are actually writing "like" now.. that's funny. Sorry... that's like, funny.
Do you actually say "lol" instead of laughing? Mind you, if you did it would really be lol..ol wouldn't it?

Hahah, I actually noticed the way I did that in my post! That's why I changed it to 'around' for the second part. Like I couldn't find like a different word for 'like' when writing that, it just came like naturally to me. Funny enough, my little brother started saying L-O-L before, and I was like, what!?

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:Kvyat > Vergne = Ricciardo > Vettel.

That's how this forum is rolling! What DOLOMITE might be missing is the fact that all drivers have their youth spells in in competitive machinery and therefore Vettel's win frequency is hindered more than that of Alonso and certainly of Lewis, who had competitive machinery for his entire career.

I get your point but Alonso did driver a year for a Minardi and had less wins after his first 60 races than Vettel. Much less.

I think it will be Vettel.

Alonso is the great of the generation but is running out of time. He will probably be retired before 22.

If Lewis won another couple of tittles I don't see him continuing as an F1 driver to the age that Alonso and Vettel will. I think Lewis could reitre by the time he is 35. Its weird to me to think Lewis could well be closer to the end of his career than the beginning!

Vettel I think really seems to love F1 and could be around until he is 40. I think he will end up the most experienced F1 driver ever. Maybe with Rosberg for competition.

Before 22!? Btw, why do you think Lewis won't continue after he's 35 years old? Is it that he might get bored of it? The thing about Vettel is that he has only raced like 7 seasons in F1 with like 2 in uncompetitive cars. Alonso has around 12 with idk how many in an uncompetitve car, probably around 2. So that's 2/7 of Vettels car in a poor car while 2/12 for Alonso. That's what I was kind of talking about. But, yeah, Vettel must have the most race wins in the end.

Sorry I meant Alonso probably will have retired by 2020.

Its just a hunch. I do think that the F1 world takes a toll on Lewis. I can see him wanting to try and do something else before he gets to old.

I don't have a precise number but I think they will end up their career with more or less the same amount of wins.
I don't think that Vettel has a lot of wins left in him. The master engineer of his wins, Newey, is leaving the team next year and I doubt he will ever have the type of car he had in 09-13'...Also he happens to be teamed up with a driver who is arguably better than him so that will make it even harder.
Lewis is at the right place at the moment and he can catch up with Vettel while at Merc if he's lucky enough. Rosberg will steal many wins from him though.
Alonso has a chance to catch Vettel. I believe that when Newey leaves the sport the rest of the field will have caught up with Mercedes and you shall see a more level playing field until the next change of regulations. This is when Alonso should get his 3rd WDC and possibly a 4th. I believe he has a chance to surpass Vettel's win tally.

Surprised to see Vettel, a product of a system, get the most votes when the largest factor towards his success is gone.

Vettel. He already has the most, he's the youngest and he's in a team that could very easily be at the top again next year.

At the moment with the dominant mercedes which will most likely be dominant again next year, Lewis looks good to overtake Vettel and Alonso,

Lewis will almost certainly surpass 30 wins this year and you have to say Merc look prime to continue this in coming seasons.

Ricciardo

I have to say, with Merc looking strong Id put money on Lewis surpassing Alonso this year. Ferrari dont look like getting their act together anytime this decade. If a RBR is going to win another race this year I have a strong suspicion it will be Ricciardo, not Vettel on the top step.

As there is no major shake up in the rules next year, you have to fancy Mercs dominance continuing into 2015 although in all likelihood RBR will probably be a lot closer to them (as Renault will be able to improve their engine over the winter). Im still going to go out on a limb and say that Ricciardo will end up leading the team, on the whole beating Vettel but not by much.

So for that reasoning, come the end of their careers I would expect Hamilton to nudge Vettel with Alonso not far behind.

As it stands it has to be Lewis because he is actually in a title winning car. He could match or surpass Alonso in the remainder of the season. It is hard not to see Merc at least very competitive, if not dominant in the next couple of seasons as well.

Alonso and Vettel are not in title winning cars. But will their teams come up with a great car next year? Who knows? But if Renault come up with a better engine for RB then Vettel becomes favourite. Will Alonso cut his losses and switch even to say Williams? These are all ifs and buts so as I said Hamilton is in the driving seat, excuse the pun.

Vettel, he'll win a few more I think

Hard to say. I don't think it'll be Alonso, simply because he's the eldest of the three.

Vettel? Well, probably. Although there's going to be a lot of stiff competition for race wins from a lot of the new guys in the sport.