Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

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JN23
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Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by JN23 »

Inspired by listening to the WTF1 podcast. This is the situation in the final race at Abu Dhabi with five laps to go:

1. Verstappen
2. Hamilton (currently has fastest lap)
3. Perez
4. Bottas

As it stands, Hamilton’s fastest lap point gives him the WDC, but Perez’s third place over Bottas gives Red Bull the WCC.

This gives Red Bull a decision. If they pit Perez, he can set fastest lap on fresh tyres quite easily and take the point away from Hamilton to give Verstappen the WDC. However, this elevates Bottas to third and gives Mercedes the WCC.

(You could swap the drivers around in this situation so it’s Mercedes with the initial decision to make over whether they go for WDC or WCC)

1. What do you think Red Bull would do?
2. What would you do if you were Red Bull?
3. If Red Bull opted to pit Perez and prioritise the WDC, what would Mercedes do? They could do nothing and take the WCC or pit Bottas as well and have a showdown for fastest lap and the WDC.

Editing: ignore point 3 as Bottas pitting for fastest lap doesn’t help Hamilton win the WDC as Hamilton needs the point. Hamilton would need to pit with two laps to go to stop Verstappen reacting but in reality, Perez wouldn’t pit for fastest lap until that point as well and just do the opposite of Hamilton.
Last edited by JN23 on Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

IDFD
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by IDFD »

I think Red Bull would prefer the WDC. Merc would prefer the WCC. So they'd both be happy for Red Bull to pit Perez.

I don't think Red Bull would actually pit him though. The FIA would be fuming at how it devalued the WCC wouldn't they which is the main prize on offer and what determines prize money. I don't think the argument would ever end over that situation either.

I'd imagine Red Bull would actually see if Gasly could pit and take the fastest lap.

mikeyg123
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by mikeyg123 »

I think Red Bull would 100% pit Perez and if given time Mercedes would 100% pit Bottas. The fall out with Hamilton if they chose not to would be to severe.

If Red Bull did it right though they would do it on the penultimate lap denying Merc that option.

Anyone who doesn't think both Red Bull and Mercedes massively prioritise the WDC is living in dreamland.

JN23
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by JN23 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:18 pm
I think Red Bull would 100% pit Perez and if given time Mercedes would 100% pit Bottas. The fall out with Hamilton if they chose not to would be to severe.

If Red Bull did it right though they would do it on the penultimate lap denying Merc that option.

Anyone who doesn't think both Red Bull and Mercedes massively prioritise the WDC is living in dreamland.
Yeah I agree with your last point.

To be fair Merc pre-empt the RB stop and pit Bottas anyway, although might be beyond the Mercedes strategy team :uhoh:

JN23
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by JN23 »

IDFD wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:09 pm
I think Red Bull would prefer the WDC. Merc would prefer the WCC. So they'd both be happy for Red Bull to pit Perez.

I don't think Red Bull would actually pit him though. The FIA would be fuming at how it devalued the WCC wouldn't they which is the main prize on offer and what determines prize money. I don't think the argument would ever end over that situation either.

I'd imagine Red Bull would actually see if Gasly could pit and take the fastest lap.
Do you really think the FIA being annoyed would stop Red Bull (or Merc) doing it? I don’t think it would. They’d take their drivers championship and wouldn’t really care beyond that.

Editing to add: I raised the prospect of a sister team/engine supplier possibly interfering in a close championship race by taking the fastest lap point at the time the rule was introduced as that doesn’t sit right with me. I hope it doesn’t happen either way.

F1_Ernie
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by F1_Ernie »

Redbull would pit Perez and Mercedes with Bottas, with equal cars you would favour Bottas to get the job done.
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IDFD
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by IDFD »

JN23 wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:23 pm

Do you really think the FIA being annoyed would stop Red Bull (or Merc) doing it? I don’t think it would. They’d take their drivers championship and wouldn’t really care beyond that.

Editing to add: I raised the prospect of a sister team/engine supplier possibly interfering in a close championship race by taking the fastest lap point at the time the rule was introduced as that doesn’t sit right with me. I hope it doesn’t happen either way.
I think it would make Red Bull think twice before doing it. But that they'd get Gasly to do it.

I also think that Merc will want to continue this record breaking WCC run they're on. It's currently the longest streak and it's active and they need one more to have the longest streak by an engine manufacturer. Which is currently tied with Ford.

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Black_Flag_11
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

Horner was asked in an interview on sky whether he would pick WDC or WCC, he said the WCC has the money but the WDC has the prestige and ultimately he would choose the WDC.

I get that Dietrich would make the call and he may view it differently, but I think there's our answer.

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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by j man »

Red Bull have already shown in Silverstone that they're quite prepared to lose constructors' points from Perez just to deprive Hamilton of a fastest lap point. I don't think there's any question of a doubt that they would do the same if this hypothesised situation arose.

Delphic
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by Delphic »

No question either RB or Merc would prefer the WDC. But if I was Horner I would get Gasly to get the fastest lap. What's the use of the junior team if you can't help big brother.

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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by wolfticket »

I think they'd both go for the WDC. Even if on the quiet the team valued the WCC more the PR fallout from consciously giving away the WDC to win it would poison that to the point of not making it worth it.
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JN23
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by JN23 »

Delphic wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 5:09 pm
No question either RB or Merc would prefer the WDC. But if I was Horner I would get Gasly to get the fastest lap. What's the use of the junior team if you can't help big brother.
Would there be any repercussions of using AT to get the fastest lap point away from Hamilton? I guess maybe a bit of bad press but nothing that would make the team not do it?

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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by Exediron »

Both teams value the WDC more...

.. because they understand that it's every bit as much of a team achievement as the WCC, but for whatever reason it gets all the public attention.

8)

That said, I'm not sure anyone would take the option of giving up the WCC to pit the #2 driver. The problem is that getting fastest lap is not actually a guarantee, and it would be a colossal blunder if they pitted the #2 and somehow failed to get fastest lap, thus throwing away a shot at either championship. In that circumstance, I feel that it would be pretty hard for the team principal to justify not just settling for the championship you already have.
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JN23
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by JN23 »

Exediron wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 7:46 pm
Both teams value the WDC more...

.. because they understand that it's every bit as much of a team achievement as the WCC, but for whatever reason it gets all the public attention.

8)

That said, I'm not sure anyone would take the option of giving up the WCC to pit the #2 driver. The problem is that getting fastest lap is not actually a guarantee, and it would be a colossal blunder if they pitted the #2 and somehow failed to get fastest lap, thus throwing away a shot at either championship. In that circumstance, I feel that it would be pretty hard for the team principal to justify not just settling for the championship you already have.
Good point, imagine putting your number 2 and then a yellow flag coming out mucking up their lap.

WHoff78
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by WHoff78 »

JN23 wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:39 pm
Exediron wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 7:46 pm
Both teams value the WDC more...

.. because they understand that it's every bit as much of a team achievement as the WCC, but for whatever reason it gets all the public attention.

8)

That said, I'm not sure anyone would take the option of giving up the WCC to pit the #2 driver. The problem is that getting fastest lap is not actually a guarantee, and it would be a colossal blunder if they pitted the #2 and somehow failed to get fastest lap, thus throwing away a shot at either championship. In that circumstance, I feel that it would be pretty hard for the team principal to justify not just settling for the championship you already have.
Good point, imagine putting your number 2 and then a yellow flag coming out mucking up their lap.
So basically Bottas would just have to push a bit harder than normal, just hard enough for a little run across the grass, to bring out the yellow flags in front of Sergio and still come home in third.

JN23
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by JN23 »

WHoff78 wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:43 pm
JN23 wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:39 pm
Exediron wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 7:46 pm
Both teams value the WDC more...

.. because they understand that it's every bit as much of a team achievement as the WCC, but for whatever reason it gets all the public attention.

8)

That said, I'm not sure anyone would take the option of giving up the WCC to pit the #2 driver. The problem is that getting fastest lap is not actually a guarantee, and it would be a colossal blunder if they pitted the #2 and somehow failed to get fastest lap, thus throwing away a shot at either championship. In that circumstance, I feel that it would be pretty hard for the team principal to justify not just settling for the championship you already have.
Good point, imagine putting your number 2 and then a yellow flag coming out mucking up their lap.
So basically Bottas would just have to push a bit harder than normal, just hard enough for a little run across the grass, to bring out the yellow flags in front of Sergio and still come home in third.
That wouldn’t be worth the negative publicity I imagine. I can also imagine a penalty such as Hungary 2007 where the team scores no constructor points that weekend.

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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by tootsie323 »

WHoff78 wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:43 pm
JN23 wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:39 pm
Exediron wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 7:46 pm
Both teams value the WDC more...

.. because they understand that it's every bit as much of a team achievement as the WCC, but for whatever reason it gets all the public attention.

8)

That said, I'm not sure anyone would take the option of giving up the WCC to pit the #2 driver. The problem is that getting fastest lap is not actually a guarantee, and it would be a colossal blunder if they pitted the #2 and somehow failed to get fastest lap, thus throwing away a shot at either championship. In that circumstance, I feel that it would be pretty hard for the team principal to justify not just settling for the championship you already have.
Good point, imagine putting your number 2 and then a yellow flag coming out mucking up their lap.
So basically Bottas would just have to push a bit harder than normal, just hard enough for a little run across the grass, to bring out the yellow flags in front of Sergio and still come home in third.
Slight drawback. Abu Dhabi... grass?
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DOLOMITE
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by DOLOMITE »

so in short - would a Team willingly give up the Constructors Title in order to win the Drivers Title or vice versa Is that what we are asking? Tricky one and would be a great question to put to the Team Principals. Not that you would get a straight answer from any of them. What would the commercial implications be? Teams get prize money based on their WCC standings but not WDC I think?

Ferrari traditionally said Constructors is more important for them but I wonder if it came to such a decision would they stand by that?
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by mikeyg123 »

DOLOMITE wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:37 am
so in short - would a Team willingly give up the Constructors Title in order to win the Drivers Title or vice versa Is that what we are asking? Tricky one and would be a great question to put to the Team Principals. Not that you would get a straight answer from any of them. What would the commercial implications be? Teams get prize money based on their WCC standings but not WDC I think?

Ferrari traditionally said Constructors is more important for them but I wonder if it came to such a decision would they stand by that?
This is obviously a long time ago but compare the very muted response to Ferrari winning the first WCC in 16 years in 1999 to the jubilation of winning the drivers title in 2000.

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DOLOMITE
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by DOLOMITE »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:24 pm
DOLOMITE wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:37 am
so in short - would a Team willingly give up the Constructors Title in order to win the Drivers Title or vice versa Is that what we are asking? Tricky one and would be a great question to put to the Team Principals. Not that you would get a straight answer from any of them. What would the commercial implications be? Teams get prize money based on their WCC standings but not WDC I think?

Ferrari traditionally said Constructors is more important for them but I wonder if it came to such a decision would they stand by that?
This is obviously a long time ago but compare the very muted response to Ferrari winning the first WCC in 16 years in 1999 to the jubilation of winning the drivers title in 2000.
Absolutely. I think there's also the fact that 1) the fans/public generally don't care about the WCC and 2) Winning the WCC as Constructor really only had any significance or prestige if the team was actually a constructor of road cars. Win on Sunday, Sell on Monday etc.
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by UnlikeUday »

If we talk of any year regarding an F1 season, we seldom talk about who was the WDC champion that year & not who won the constructor's that year.......
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Re: Hypothetical situation: Abu Dhabi 2021

Post by FormulaFun »

If they did that I think that Merc could probably just get Bottas to slow massively so that Perez comes out just behind him or at least encounters him in the Lap and block his fastest lap, thus claiming WDC and WCC (if they were smart enough which currently I am doubting)

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