Who will win the Championships?

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Who will win the WDC/WCC?

Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes
8
21%
Lewis Hamilton and Red Bull
1
3%
Max Verstappen and Mercedes
13
34%
Max Verstappen and Red Bull
16
42%
Other (now mathematically impossible)
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 38

Delphic
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Delphic »

Agreed. With the car set up and the performance of the team behind him Max deserves to lead this WDC by a lot more. In that sense Hamilton is really lucky to still have a chance.

It should be quite obvious by now that both Max and Lewis are not passing each other on track. Track position has been the key more often than not. It is coming down to timing of pit stops and how the cars are set up for the tracks. On that front Red Bull have been better than the Mercs.

Its really a circular argument as to who is suffering more. Max due to his earlier bad luck or Lewis due to reliability or weather issues on tracks that favored him. Depends on what bias you have to choose a side. One thing is sure - both Lewis and Max are showing why they are in a class of their own. Its almost impossible to separate the two.

SR1
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by SR1 »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:31 pm
I didn't want to go too off topic in the latest race thread, so I thought I would reply to Pokemon's post here regarding a comparison of verstappen's and Hamilton's luck.
pokerman wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:13 pm
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:08 pm
Think what the difference in points would be had verstappen not had a puncture in baku and wasn't punted out in Britain. I believe that verstappen would be over a race win ahead of hamilton with that included. And with their luck even, probably a lot more.
I guess poor Mercedes strategy over the season doesn't count as bad luck for Hamilton?

Mercedes have also really helped hamilton at times by going against what he himself wanted. Though admittedly more so in the other direction.

However it is certainly the case hat Hamilton has had more good luck than Verstappen, and Verstappen has had more bad luck. For the ability of the cars and the fact Verstappen has the advantage here, I would still certainly say Verstappen deserves to be at least the advantage of points over Hamilton that he currently has.

If you look back over the season and compare good and bad luck, then you can see just how fortunate Hamilton has been really to be able to be this close.

He was given at least a 12 point advantage in Emilia Romagna as just after he went off track, he was saved seconds later by an unrelated safety car. Without that he will have been well over a lap down. Tail end of the points will have been the best he could hope for.

Baku is a slightly harder situation to judge. Hamilton will have finished 3rd had Verstappen not had his issue, he would have won. So that would be 25 points lost for Verstappen and 15 for Hamilton. But Hamilton threw his chance of 2nd or a win away when he had the opportunity given.

In Britain, I do think Hamilton will have won had there been no contact, but it was his fault that He knocked Verstappen out, and cost verstappen 18 points.

Hungary is very hard to judge, but I'm pretty certain that Verstappen will have had a podium without Bottas causing him damage. So lets say he lost 15 points. Hamilton was a bit unlucky to have stayed out, but then he still finished 2nd after Vettel got disqualified. If I'm being generous, lets say he lost the win and lost 7 points.

In Italy, Verstappen did have some bad luck that is forgotten by many because of what happened later. He before this had a solid qualifying and sprint, and an ok start. At least relative to Hamilton. He then had an 11 second pit stop that put him into the path of Hamilton and undid his better performance from earlier. What he did then was his own fault, but I find it a bit harder to be against him for it in the same was as I was against hamilton in Britain. To be fair on Verstappen, he would have beaten Hamilton had it not been for his stop, but factoring in this and his penalty, he made them both lose points. He did however at least get a grid drop for the next race.

I would say that Russia was one race where Verstappen got lucky, but Hamilton's team also helped Hamilton a lot here. 1 and 2 seemed unrealistic for both, but I would say Verstappen was more lucky than Hamilton. Lets say Hamilton deserved that win and Verstappen was fortunate to gain 10 points.

Regarding Hamilton's strategy in Turkey, I believe that doing exactly what the team wanted, at the time the team wanted him to do it will have got him the best result he could realistically get. He was the one who wanted to stay out. He's trusted the team before and benifitted from it. I don't blame the team for him losing 1 or two places here.

After adding this up, Verstappen would have 335.5 and Hamilton would have 309.5. I think this is reasonably fairly judged (possibly even more generous towards Hamilton), but yes, it is guessing. But I think Verstappen should in reality be this far ahead, which is just over a race win in terms of points.

For me, Verstappen had luck on his side in France too. He lost the lead through an error, regained the lead mainly due to poor Mercedes pitstop strategy . Ferrari strategy was singled out 2017-2018 - i think Mercedes' strategic failings also need to be fully analysed. Dunno if it can be classed as luck but also having two races in Austria, a track where Hamilton and Merc tend to struggle was fortunate for Red Bull and Verstappen.

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Mercedes-Benz
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Mercedes-Benz »

In Baku, Max was going to get win and take points from Hamilton. But after his DNF, Hamilton had great opportunity and he forgot to turn off power brakes or brake bias ? was a huge mistake.

In Silverstone too I think Max was unlucky with the DNF and his engine damaged. But According to Mercedes Hamilton would have retired if there was no red flag: https://www.planetf1.com/news/mercedes- ... -hamilton/
That was a big moment too so far in WC.

Hungary is Hamilton, Mercedes track but somehow he failed to win there. Terrible race for RBR. Perez engine got damaged in turn1 and Max car was broken as well. I think Alonso was also take out. Vettel DQ from P2. IMO they should have retired Max and saved engine mileage on the car instead of crawling to few pints. He lost 16points there to Hamilton who himself did not have perfect race.

The only moment of luck for Max I can think was the rain at the end in Russia. I think he moved from P6 to P2. SPA was wet all weekend. So same for everyone and he was good enough to get pole. Monza he got good slipstream in qualifying I think but these things, traffic even out over the year. Monza is a Hamilton's track but he missed out on pole and poor start, result in Sprint race. Where he should have ideally got 3points. Max took 2 there instead. In the race both guys had poor pitstop and both retired. So overall Max gained 2points on a Hamilton track. It was not luck that Hamilton could not get pole, 3pts in sprint and ideally won that race. He missed to take points from Max.

Imola, while going pass Russell he went off tack and damaged his front wing. There was a red flag so he got away with it after restart he was able to recover to P2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMv5PaQ1fwo

IMO Hamilton has not had a great year and is not even the second best driver this year. I would probably give to Norris.
Last edited by Mercedes-Benz on Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:24 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Delphic
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Delphic »

Not sure what Merc could have done in France. It was similar to what happened yesterday. Similar to what happened to RB in Spain. Sure, in hindsight we can say that they could have stopped early, but that's not reasonable. Once the guy in the second stops you are basically a sitting duck. Sometimes you just tip your hat to the opposition instead of blaming the business.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by SR1 »

Delphic wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:20 pm
Not sure what Merc could have done in France. It was similar to what happened yesterday. Similar to what happened to RB in Spain. Sure, in hindsight we can say that they could have stopped early, but that's not reasonable. Once the guy in the second stops you are basically a sitting duck. Sometimes you just tip your hat to the opposition instead of blaming the business.
All Merc had to do was pit Hamilton straight after Bottas at the first round of pitstops- he would've come out ahead of Verstappen. See their de-brief. They admit they screwed up. Luck for Verstappen imo.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by DOLOMITE »

Until COTA I was still thinking Hamilton, but a convincing, if tight, victory there by Max/Red Bull makes me now think Max might do it. Virtually nothing in it still but if they can beat Merc there the way they did I think they will have them covered for the remainder of the season. I think it's now the stronger package, but with it so close, a DNF could swing it. Max could finish 2nd to Lewis next race and still be head and that's significant.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Yeboah24 »

Someone could write a detailed report on this luck malarky. A definition, different types of luck and a logical to equalise for this luck. Anybody retired and have the time?

I think if you include mercedes strategy, which would include things like spa qualy, france pit stop etc. Then you.might just the "luck" to have equalised somewhat. Definately feels like since the break, baring turkey, lewis hasnt put a foot wrong, yet has.missed out due to a series of unfortunate events.

If their respective individual performances stay the same in the remaining races, i would say Max was the better driver but only seperated by the fact Lewis made one more big error - the imola off track. In terms of pace id say equal. Id give max qualy, id give lewis wheel to wheel (subjective lets not debate it please), consistency max (less personal errors and IMO does a great job on setup altho we will never know how much that is him)

Funny tho, Lewis imola error didnt actually cost him points which makes me think strategy has been a boon for max this season, rather than any lewis mistakes.

Im sure if i rewatched every race id change my view!

If all stays the same and max wins, id say he had the marginally better car, but on balance was also the marginally better performer, simply down to not doing a lewis imola.

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Johnson
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:31 pm
I didn't want to go too off topic in the latest race thread, so I thought I would reply to Pokemon's post here regarding a comparison of verstappen's and Hamilton's luck.
pokerman wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:13 pm
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:08 pm
Think what the difference in points would be had verstappen not had a puncture in baku and wasn't punted out in Britain. I believe that verstappen would be over a race win ahead of hamilton with that included. And with their luck even, probably a lot more.
I guess poor Mercedes strategy over the season doesn't count as bad luck for Hamilton?

Mercedes have also really helped hamilton at times by going against what he himself wanted. Though admittedly more so in the other direction.

However it is certainly the case hat Hamilton has had more good luck than Verstappen, and Verstappen has had more bad luck. For the ability of the cars and the fact Verstappen has the advantage here, I would still certainly say Verstappen deserves to be at least the advantage of points over Hamilton that he currently has.

If you look back over the season and compare good and bad luck, then you can see just how fortunate Hamilton has been really to be able to be this close.

He was given at least a 12 point advantage in Emilia Romagna as just after he went off track, he was saved seconds later by an unrelated safety car. Without that he will have been well over a lap down. Tail end of the points will have been the best he could hope for.

Baku is a slightly harder situation to judge. Hamilton will have finished 3rd had Verstappen not had his issue, he would have won. So that would be 25 points lost for Verstappen and 15 for Hamilton. But Hamilton threw his chance of 2nd or a win away when he had the opportunity given.

In Britain, I do think Hamilton will have won had there been no contact, but it was his fault that He knocked Verstappen out, and cost verstappen 18 points.

Hungary is very hard to judge, but I'm pretty certain that Verstappen will have had a podium without Bottas causing him damage. So lets say he lost 15 points. Hamilton was a bit unlucky to have stayed out, but then he still finished 2nd after Vettel got disqualified. If I'm being generous, lets say he lost the win and lost 7 points.

In Italy, Verstappen did have some bad luck that is forgotten by many because of what happened later. He before this had a solid qualifying and sprint, and an ok start. At least relative to Hamilton. He then had an 11 second pit stop that put him into the path of Hamilton and undid his better performance from earlier. What he did then was his own fault, but I find it a bit harder to be against him for it in the same was as I was against hamilton in Britain. To be fair on Verstappen, he would have beaten Hamilton had it not been for his stop, but factoring in this and his penalty, he made them both lose points. He did however at least get a grid drop for the next race.

I would say that Russia was one race where Verstappen got lucky, but Hamilton's team also helped Hamilton a lot here. 1 and 2 seemed unrealistic for both, but I would say Verstappen was more lucky than Hamilton. Lets say Hamilton deserved that win and Verstappen was fortunate to gain 10 points.

Regarding Hamilton's strategy in Turkey, I believe that doing exactly what the team wanted, at the time the team wanted him to do it will have got him the best result he could realistically get. He was the one who wanted to stay out. He's trusted the team before and benifitted from it. I don't blame the team for him losing 1 or two places here.

After adding this up, Verstappen would have 335.5 and Hamilton would have 309.5. I think this is reasonably fairly judged (possibly even more generous towards Hamilton), but yes, it is guessing. But I think Verstappen should in reality be this far ahead, which is just over a race win in terms of points.
A good analysis, the only thing that I would add that is usually never mentioned is that Max was P2 in Monaco but Leclerc could not take his pole due to bringing out the red flags and if Leclerc did not bring those red flags out it looked like Sainz was on for pole with Max p2 or p3. How it worked out, Max started from pole and won easily.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by j man »

It's been a bit of a strange championship this. It promised so much in Bahrain but I feel instead of a championship featuring a contest between the best two drivers we've had too many races that have been decided by unavoidable accidents, random failures, grid penalties, inclement weather and the preference of the two protagonists to bump into each other rather than lose.

At moment it is Verstappen's to lose. I think he has driven better than Hamilton overall, in making fewer mistakes and not having that handful of race weekends that Hamilton always has each year where he doesn't get comfortable with the car and is well off the pace. I would also say that the Red Bull generally has had a slight edge over the Mercedes in the majority of races. The season as a whole though needs a lot more analysis and unraveling than I have done thus far.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

Given the inferiority of the Mercedes strategy team and the unreliability of the Mercedes engines the only chance I give Hamilton now is Mercedes consistently being able to give Hamilton the faster car, that seems unlikely.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Fiki »

j man wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:51 pm
we've had too many races that have been decided by unavoidable accidents
I'm surprised by this comment. Were there really that many unavoidable accidents, apart from the tyre failure on Verstappen's car in Baku? My memory being what it is, would you mind pointing out a few others?
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by j man »

Fiki wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 1:02 pm
j man wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:51 pm
we've had too many races that have been decided by unavoidable accidents
I'm surprised by this comment. Were there really that many unavoidable accidents, apart from the tyre failure on Verstappen's car in Baku? My memory being what it is, would you mind pointing out a few others?
I wrote that with Hungary in mind, where Verstappen was wiped out by the pile-up at turn 1. There aren't really any others, I meant that there were multiple races decided by one of those things, not that each item has multiple instances. Baku was filed under the "random failures" comment.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1_Ernie »

Was just reading Bottas taking a new engine in Texas was tactical to give him the best opportunity to take points of Max at Mexico and Brazil, that's going to take some mighty effort from Bottas but you never know. I guess he was never going to beat Max in Texas and a new engine is apparently worth 2 tenths. Mercedes are looking to leave Brazil with the gap less than 20 points between Verstappen and Hamilton then all to play for.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Siao7 »

F1_Ernie wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:31 pm
Was just reading Bottas taking a new engine in Texas was tactical to give him the best opportunity to take points of Max at Mexico and Brazil, that's going to take some mighty effort from Bottas but you never know. I guess he was never going to beat Max in Texas and a new engine is apparently worth 2 tenths. Mercedes are looking to leave Brazil with the gap less than 20 points between Verstappen and Hamilton then all to play for.
Quite a risky strategy. Bottas wasn't able to get past the Alpha Tauris with a new engine in Austin. He finished 6th for god sake in that car. With a new engine.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

Bottas did finish 6th in Austin, but he may have only been 4th anyway. Perez out qualified him by 0.3, Perez out qualifying him does not happen often but by 0.3 is a big gap.

The difference between 4th and 6th is only 4 points. Definitely worth it, even it he just finishes ahead of Verstappen ONCE in the remaining 5 races. That would likely take 3 points off Verstappen and a net gain of 6 for Mercedes in the WCC. So they "got there money back" with one result.

Bottas has only finished ahead of Verstappen once all season - Turkey - so he needs all the help he can get. But it seems like he is going to have engines to play with, maybe each engine will only have to do 2 race weekends as opposed to the 5-6 they are designed to do.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Delphic »

F1_Ernie wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:31 pm
Was just reading Bottas taking a new engine in Texas was tactical to give him the best opportunity to take points of Max at Mexico and Brazil, that's going to take some mighty effort from Bottas but you never know. I guess he was never going to beat Max in Texas and a new engine is apparently worth 2 tenths. Mercedes are looking to leave Brazil with the gap less than 20 points between Verstappen and Hamilton then all to play for.
Have zero trust in Bottas taking points off Max. I mean, is Merc really serious about Bottas beating Max in either Mexico or Brazil? It should not even be a discussion point.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by kleefton »

F1_Ernie wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:31 pm
Was just reading Bottas taking a new engine in Texas was tactical to give him the best opportunity to take points of Max at Mexico and Brazil, that's going to take some mighty effort from Bottas but you never know. I guess he was never going to beat Max in Texas and a new engine is apparently worth 2 tenths. Mercedes are looking to leave Brazil with the gap less than 20 points between Verstappen and Hamilton then all to play for.
Yeah Bottas would only beat Max if he knows he has a chance for the win, like he demonstrated in Turkey. If a Hamilton win is on the card I don't think they should rely on Bottas. He has basically checked out for the season, unless like I said, the top step of the podium is on the cards.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Yeboah24 »

Max will win this at a canter those suggesting the form book should be ignored are in denial. Rb will have mexico and brasil in hand. At this point the drivers are neck and neck performance wise, the teams however are a different story. Merc have at least one more blunder left in the super computer

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

Everybody that says it is over, have you forgotten 2016 or Vettels tragic 3 races in 2017 to end his title hopes or 2007.

Going into Spa 2016, Hamilton had won 6/7 races and only lost the 7th as his crashed in qualifying at Baku when massively quicker than Rosberg. He was 19 points ahead in the WDC and you could get Rosberg at 5/1 to win the title - then he had a disaster in the next 4 races.

- Spa, 20th grid place start due to engine penalty. Rosberg win
- Monza, pole to 7th place at the start. Rosberg win
- Singapore, engine trouble and misses all of FP2 and FP3 (all night time running) Rosberg win.
- Malaysia, dominating and about to win, blows up and Rosberg finishes 3rd.

Suddenly Rosberg lead by 33 points, 52 point turnaround and one hand on the title. Max just needs 1 bad race, not 4 consecutive disasters.
Last edited by Johnson on Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Johnson wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 1:36 pm
Everybody that says it is over, have you forgotten 2016 or Vettels tragic 3 races in 2017 to end his title hopes or 2007.

Going into Spa 2016, Hamilton had won 6/7 races and only lost the 7th as his crashed in qualifying at Baku when massively quicker than Rosberg. He was 19 points ahead in the WDC and then he had a disaster in the next 4 races.

- Spa, 20th grid place start due to engine penalty. Rosberg win
- Monza, pole to 7th place at the start. Rosberg win
- Singapore, engine trouble and misses all of FP2 and FP3 (all night time running) Rosberg win.
- Malaysia, dominating and about to win, blows up and Rosberg finishes 3rd.

Suddenly Rosberg lead by 33 points, 52 point turnaround and one hand on the title. Max just needs 1 bad race, not 4 consecutive disasters.
Yep. Another puncture in Mexico or Brazil and Hamilton is back as the favourite.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1_Ernie »

That's the point though, Hamilton can only win the championship through reliability or unfortunate events for Verstappen. Mexico is a given, as is Brazil plus Hamilton will take a penalty for a new ICE, if both races run as expected then we are talking well over 30 points. Tbh as there hasnt been a reliability issue yet, it makes me think one driver will get an issue.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

Yes the reliability has been incredible, if Verstappen had had this level or reliability in 2020 and been as error free the title would have gone to the final 2 races. Assuming Verstappen won Turkey, it may have even gone to the final race with Hamiltons covid.

The other thing is, all of the historic Red Bull tracks - Monaco, Mexico, Brazil, Singapore - were cancelled. Verstappen might have actually had a genuine title challenge in 2021 if it was not for covid.
Last edited by Johnson on Fri Oct 29, 2021 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by SR1 »

Not sure where to put these as the relevant thread is locked.


Anyway, it was 9-5 in RB's favour after Russia

Turkey went to Merc
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... rkei-2021/

USA went to RB
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... cht-trend/

Overall, 10-6 in RB's favour

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

SR1 wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:12 am
Not sure where to put these as the relevant thread is locked.


Anyway, it was 9-5 in RB's favour after Russia

Turkey went to Merc
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... rkei-2021/

USA went to RB
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... cht-trend/

Overall, 10-6 in RB's favour
It probably will get reopened, I have Red Bull just very slightly ahead.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by tootsie323 »

Assuming that both Mexico and Brazil favour Red Bull and that the Middle East final three races favour Mercedes (and that reliability is not an issue!), Verstappen may be more than a race win ahead of Hamilton going into those final three.
That effectively takes the title out of Hamilton's hands (i.e. he would need three wins plus someone else to take points from Verstappen - or other likewise senario). Never mind any talk of engine changes and associated penalties.
If RB has succeeded in countering any apparent Merc pace improvement (and RB was at least on a per with Merc at Austin, traditionally a strong Merc circuit) I find it difficult to see Hamilton clawing back the points deficit to Verstappen, all other things being equal.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by KingVoid »

Quite amusing how both Gary Anderson and Mark Hughes work for TheRace and yet their opinions are polar opposites.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-and ... tle-fight/

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:35 pm
Quite amusing how both Gary Anderson and Mark Hughes work for TheRace and yet their opinions are polar opposites.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-and ... tle-fight/
The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:28 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:35 pm
Quite amusing how both Gary Anderson and Mark Hughes work for TheRace and yet their opinions are polar opposites.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-and ... tle-fight/
The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Fiki »

KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:28 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:35 pm
Quite amusing how both Gary Anderson and Mark Hughes work for TheRace and yet their opinions are polar opposites.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-and ... tle-fight/
The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Surely what he says about top speed isn't all that diffcult to understand? So why ignore it? Perhaps Pokerman might consider ignoring what you conclude, rather than what Anderson said about the usefulness of top speed in the race. ;-)
Gary Anderson wrote:For the race, it can be a completely different matter. If you can qualify on pole position and have the confidence and speed to open up a big enough gap to get out of the DRS zone then fine. If not, that’s when straightline speed becomes more important than cornering speed.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:28 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:35 pm
Quite amusing how both Gary Anderson and Mark Hughes work for TheRace and yet their opinions are polar opposites.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-and ... tle-fight/
The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:28 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:35 pm
Quite amusing how both Gary Anderson and Mark Hughes work for TheRace and yet their opinions are polar opposites.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-and ... tle-fight/
The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
Not saying it is, but why not? Ferrari in 2019 was a better car in qualifying because of its top speed.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:28 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:35 pm
Quite amusing how both Gary Anderson and Mark Hughes work for TheRace and yet their opinions are polar opposites.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-and ... tle-fight/
The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
The first chart (average speed of fastest qualifying lap) has nothing to do with top speed.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:23 am
pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:28 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:35 pm
Quite amusing how both Gary Anderson and Mark Hughes work for TheRace and yet their opinions are polar opposites.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-and ... tle-fight/
The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
Not saying it is, but why not? Ferrari in 2019 was a better car in qualifying because of its top speed.
What about the Red Bull years when they had one of the slowest cars on the straight, how does that work?
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:24 am
pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:28 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:35 pm
Quite amusing how both Gary Anderson and Mark Hughes work for TheRace and yet their opinions are polar opposites.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-and ... tle-fight/
The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
The first chart (average speed of fastest qualifying lap) has nothing to do with top speed.
Which I guess is measured on the straights but not in the corners, Anderson is often berated as a pundit, did he have some kind of quota to meet with the editor?
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:52 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:24 am
pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:28 pm

The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
The first chart (average speed of fastest qualifying lap) has nothing to do with top speed.
Which I guess is measured on the straights but not in the corners, Anderson is often berated as a pundit, did he have some kind of quota to meet with the editor?
Average speed of best qualifying lap is quite literally the time of the best qualy lap divided by the distance of the circuit, or at least that’s how I think he calculated it.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:47 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:52 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:24 am
pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm

Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
The first chart (average speed of fastest qualifying lap) has nothing to do with top speed.
Which I guess is measured on the straights but not in the corners, Anderson is often berated as a pundit, did he have some kind of quota to meet with the editor?
Average speed of best qualifying lap is quite literally the time of the best qualy lap divided by the distance of the circuit, or at least that’s how I think he calculated it.
Then it relates directly to the lap time but Anderson's numbers clearly do not do that, he seems to be merely using straight line speed traps, there is a reason why Anderson is given little traction by quite a few people.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:50 pm
Exediron wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:23 am
pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:28 pm

The expert that is Gary Anderson, I've no idea what I just read, top speed is more important?
Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
Not saying it is, but why not? Ferrari in 2019 was a better car in qualifying because of its top speed.
What about the Red Bull years when they had one of the slowest cars on the straight, how does that work?
Different philosophy?

I'm not trying to say the fastest car is a straight line is always the one to have in qualifying. I'm merely saying it could be, if the advantage is significant.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by EPROM »

Exediron wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:42 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:50 pm
Exediron wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:23 am
pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm

Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
Not saying it is, but why not? Ferrari in 2019 was a better car in qualifying because of its top speed.
What about the Red Bull years when they had one of the slowest cars on the straight, how does that work?
Different philosophy?

I'm not trying to say the fastest car is a straight line is always the one to have in qualifying. I'm merely saying it could be, if the advantage is significant.
Yes, this seems clear (to me, at least). Top speed is a serious contribution to likely success at top qually results, but certainly not necessarily the major determinant - as it's a combination of factors.

The speed / corner traction balance governed by downforce is an engineering choice, and you're chasing an optimum setup (given your driver's characteristics). Pretty clearly the highest top speed would likely be accomplished with essential no wings, but that setup would of course really suck in the corners. The other factor of course is engine power delivered to the wheels - which is relatively independent of the aero factors.

It's really an engineering optimization choice - constrained by the basic architecture of the car and the driver's capabilities.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:42 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:50 pm
Exediron wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:23 am
pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:14 pm

Top speed can be important, but I would ignore that bit of the article. Instead, I would focus on the data which concludes that Mercedes is a better qualifying car than Red Bull. That is without taking into consideration that Verstappen is almost certainly a faster driver than Hamilton.
Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
Not saying it is, but why not? Ferrari in 2019 was a better car in qualifying because of its top speed.
What about the Red Bull years when they had one of the slowest cars on the straight, how does that work?
Different philosophy?

I'm not trying to say the fastest car is a straight line is always the one to have in qualifying. I'm merely saying it could be, if the advantage is significant.
Well I would have thought that actual lap time would tell you what was the fastest car rather than what I can only see as something that has been made up.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:38 pm
Exediron wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:42 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:50 pm
Exediron wrote:
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:23 am
pokerman wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:40 pm

Mercedes is a better qualifying car based on top speed?
Not saying it is, but why not? Ferrari in 2019 was a better car in qualifying because of its top speed.
What about the Red Bull years when they had one of the slowest cars on the straight, how does that work?
Different philosophy?

I'm not trying to say the fastest car is a straight line is always the one to have in qualifying. I'm merely saying it could be, if the advantage is significant.
Well I would have thought that actual lap time would tell you what was the fastest car rather than what I can only see as something that has been made up.
Lap time would tell you which package performed best, and if you have enough data or accurate enough data it will tell you which package is faster.

Top speed is something the driver has very little (if any) effect on, so it is certainly a more accurate way of comparing the cars directly (on that one narrow facet of performance). If Verstappen carries 3kph more than Hamilton through a corner, that might be down to driver skill. If he's 3kph faster on all the straights, it's the car.
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