Who will win the Championships?

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Who will win the WDC/WCC?

Hamilton and Mercedes
8
57%
Hamilton and Red Bull
0
No votes
Verstappen and Mercedes
6
43%
Verstappen and Red Bull
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 14

KingVoid
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by KingVoid »

FP1 was an overreaction yes, just like your take that Red Bull have been “clearly faster” this season 8)

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Exediron
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Exediron »

KingVoid wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:54 pm
FP1 was an overreaction yes, just like your take that Red Bull have been “clearly faster” this season 8)
I think a good indication that the cars have been fairly equal over the course of the season is how many people are willing to vehemently argue for one or the other being the quicker.
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kleefton
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by kleefton »

IDFD wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:51 pm
I mean you know the second reason you gave had nothing to do with it and it was all the first. But it shows your bias.

As I said though you run on emotions not facts. Hence your post after FP1. When everyone knows FP1 doesn't matter.
I don’t understand thrse desperate attempts to paint the redbull as the lesser car when it clearly isn’t. I mean there were people saying the Alfa Turiri is faster in Turkey. Some of this stuff is just next level stupid.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1_Ernie »

If Max wins today I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the title with a race to spare. Mexico is a given, I reckon Brazil is too and it looks like Hamilton could be taking an ICE penalty there aswell.
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KingVoid
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by KingVoid »

I will attempt to be as unbiased as possible here and take off my Max goggles.

Red Bull was faster:

Bahrain
Monaco
Baku
Austria
Styria
Zandvoort

Mercedes was faster:

Spain
Portugal
Hungary
Monza
Russia
Turkey

Too close to call:

Emilia-Romagna
France

Not enough data:

Silverstone
Spa

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Exediron
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Exediron »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:50 am
I will attempt to be as unbiased as possible here and take off my Max goggles.

Red Bull was faster:

Bahrain
Monaco
Baku
Austria
Styria
Zandvoort

Mercedes was faster:

Spain
Portugal
Hungary
Monza
Russia
Turkey

Too close to call:

Emilia-Romagna
France

Not enough data:

Silverstone
Spa
I think that's a pretty good attempt at an impartial sorting, which fits with my overall impression that the season has been quite equal.

I'm not completely certain about Bahrain; Red Bull was much faster in qualifying, but that pace disappeared in the race. I seem to recall there was some car issue (differential?) that might have explained the loss, but otherwise the cars seemed quite well matched on race day.

On the two where you don't have enough data, I would be inclined to call Silverstone for Red Bull on the basis of the sprint, but it's true that the competitive order wasn't quite the same on Sunday as it had been on Saturday. For Spa there is simply no way to tell.
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Yeboah24
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Yeboah24 »

I expect USA will be chalked up to RB

mikeyg123
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by mikeyg123 »

IDFD wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:46 pm
I expect Max and Lewis to DNF tomorrow at the first corner by Max being clumsy.

The idea that Max has 9 pole positions and Lewis 3 completely destroys the idea Red Bull is the inferior car. Max fans like Max have a silly arrogance. I actually think Red Bull has clearly been the better car but people want to create a narrative like they did in 07/08/17/18

And it's not a surprise one of the main people pushing that narrative was the one in 2017/18 banging on about how much better Vettel was than Hamilton but now denies it even though their posting history is there for all to read.
Ah the old, "I'm right and everyone that disagrees with me is arrogant" schtick.

In reality you show every bit as much hyperbole as those you criticize. Over the season thus far neither team has been clearly faster. It's swung from race to race with Red Bull very marginally the better IMO after yesterday's qualifying session. I think the only way you could claim that the Red Bull has been clearly faster is if you think Hamilton is a fair bit faster than Verstappen.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:50 am
I will attempt to be as unbiased as possible here and take off my Max goggles.

Red Bull was faster:

Bahrain
Monaco
Baku
Austria
Styria
Zandvoort

Mercedes was faster:

Spain
Portugal
Hungary
Monza
Russia
Turkey

Too close to call:

Emilia-Romagna
France

Not enough data:

Silverstone
Spa
That’s spot on I would say :thumbup:

The difference is Verstappen has been unluckier and should be 30-40 points ahead.

One thing I will say, that does not go mentioned is that yes Red Bull have been unluckier overall but they have not had rain or a dodgy safety car at any of there strong tracks. In 5 of the 6 they lead every lap from pole with the exception being Bahrain where Mercedes got them strategically but still lead the first half from pole.

Mercedes have had the freak rain in Hungary and a circumstance never seen in F1 history, sprint qualifying in Monza and Silverstone (which means you need to ace 2 starts, not 1) late rain in qualifying and race in Russia and then rain again in Turkey (grid penalty and No DRS for Hamilton to cruise through with). Mercedes have had a lot of variables to deal with in there strong tracks. Even Spa looked like a Mercedes track if dry and it rained. Monza, Hamilton has made 2 bad starts all year and does it at the race his car is most dominant. They’ve also taken all there grid penalties in all there strong race.

In all 6 strong Mercedes tracks, the only 1 they lead from pole in was Turkey. They somehow lost the lead in all the other 5, whether it be rain, grid penalties or something else like a long run to turn 1 and getting slipstreamed or a rare bad start.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:53 am
IDFD wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:46 pm
I expect Max and Lewis to DNF tomorrow at the first corner by Max being clumsy.

The idea that Max has 9 pole positions and Lewis 3 completely destroys the idea Red Bull is the inferior car. Max fans like Max have a silly arrogance. I actually think Red Bull has clearly been the better car but people want to create a narrative like they did in 07/08/17/18

And it's not a surprise one of the main people pushing that narrative was the one in 2017/18 banging on about how much better Vettel was than Hamilton but now denies it even though their posting history is there for all to read.
Ah the old, "I'm right and everyone that disagrees with me is arrogant" schtick.

In reality you show every bit as much hyperbole as those you criticize. Over the season thus far neither team has been clearly faster. It's swung from race to race with Red Bull very marginally the better IMO after yesterday's qualifying session. I think the only way you could claim that the Red Bull has been clearly faster is if you think Hamilton is a fair bit faster than Verstappen.
Over 1 lap, Red Bull lead Mercedes 11-6.

If we assume Verstappen = Hamilton over 1 lap then Red Bull is definitely better over 1 lap. Hamilton does not need to be quicker than Vertsappen for Red Bull to be quicker.

The only way the cars are equal over 1 lap is if Verstappen is quicker than Hamilton, which there is evidence for.

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F1Tyrant
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1Tyrant »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:50 am
I will attempt to be as unbiased as possible here and take off my Max goggles.
I must compliment you on your list, although, I still have confidence in calling France for Mercedes and Silverstone a draw.

As I have maintained rather consistently, the cars are close enough that the better driver should prevail. Lady Luck has been slightly harsher to the better driver this season but I hope it isn't decisive.
Johnson wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:55 am
The only way the cars are equal over 1 lap is if Verstappen is quicker than Hamilton, which there is evidence for.
Agreed on this count. I might also advance this as the explanation for the number of poles Hamilton achieved in 2017 against Vettel and that the red and silver cars were possibly more closely matched than people give Ferrari credit for. Add in the sheer drivability of the SF70H versus the W08's rather unstable rear and one may even stretch to say Ferrari had the slimmest of edges in 2017.
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Yeboah24
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Yeboah24 »

Johnson wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:38 am
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:50 am
I will attempt to be as unbiased as possible here and take off my Max goggles.

Red Bull was faster:

Bahrain
Monaco
Baku
Austria
Styria
Zandvoort

Mercedes was faster:

Spain
Portugal
Hungary
Monza
Russia
Turkey

Too close to call:

Emilia-Romagna
France

Not enough data:

Silverstone
Spa
That’s spot on I would say :thumbup:

The difference is Verstappen has been unluckier and should be 30-40 points ahead.

One thing I will say, that does not go mentioned is that yes Red Bull have been unluckier overall but they have not had rain or a dodgy safety car at any of there strong tracks. In 5 of the 6 they lead every lap from pole with the exception being Bahrain where Mercedes got them strategically but still lead the first half from pole.

Mercedes have had the freak rain in Hungary and a circumstance never seen in F1 history, sprint qualifying in Monza and Silverstone (which means you need to ace 2 starts, not 1) late rain in qualifying and race in Russia and then rain again in Turkey (grid penalty and No DRS for Hamilton to cruise through with). Mercedes have had a lot of variables to deal with in there strong tracks. Even Spa looked like a Mercedes track if dry and it rained. Monza, Hamilton has made 2 bad starts all year and does it at the race his car is most dominant. They’ve also taken all there grid penalties in all there strong race.

In all 6 strong Mercedes tracks, the only 1 they lead from pole in was Turkey. They somehow lost the lead in all the other 5, whether it be rain, grid penalties or something else like a long run to turn 1 and getting slipstreamed or a rare bad start.
This !!

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Johnson
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:41 am
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:50 am
I will attempt to be as unbiased as possible here and take off my Max goggles.
I must compliment you on your list, although, I still have confidence in calling France for Mercedes and Silverstone a draw.

As I have maintained rather consistently, the cars are close enough that the better driver should prevail. Lady Luck has been slightly harsher to the better driver this season but I hope it isn't decisive.
Johnson wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:55 am
The only way the cars are equal over 1 lap is if Verstappen is quicker than Hamilton, which there is evidence for.
Agreed on this count. I might also advance this as the explanation for the number of poles Hamilton achieved in 2017 against Vettel and that the red and silver cars were possibly more closely matched than people give Ferrari credit for. Add in the sheer drivability of the SF70H versus the W08's rather unstable rear and one may even stretch to say Ferrari had the slimmest of edges in 2017.
At the time we assumed Vettel = Hamilton over 1 lap. Which was fair at the time and is still my opinion give or take 0.1. Unless Raikkonen absolutely sucked that year, Vettel appeared to be at the very top of his game.The overwhelming consensus was that Mercedes was better over 1 lap, at the time and that still remains today due to the engine modes they had for qualifying. I don’t think anybody thinks the Ferrari was quicker over 1 lap?

Ferrari got 5 poles and in 11/20 races was either on pole or within 0.1. It wasn’t a complete landslide but at some tracks it was for Mercedes. However if Vettel was 0.1 quicker he would have got half the poles that year but 6 of them would have been by a tiny margin.

I would also add that the best driver and pit wall will prevail, both drivers have lost and won races from pit wall calls this season.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Yeboah24 »

Johnson wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:14 am
F1Tyrant wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:41 am
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:50 am
I will attempt to be as unbiased as possible here and take off my Max goggles.
I must compliment you on your list, although, I still have confidence in calling France for Mercedes and Silverstone a draw.

As I have maintained rather consistently, the cars are close enough that the better driver should prevail. Lady Luck has been slightly harsher to the better driver this season but I hope it isn't decisive.
Johnson wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:55 am
The only way the cars are equal over 1 lap is if Verstappen is quicker than Hamilton, which there is evidence for.
Agreed on this count. I might also advance this as the explanation for the number of poles Hamilton achieved in 2017 against Vettel and that the red and silver cars were possibly more closely matched than people give Ferrari credit for. Add in the sheer drivability of the SF70H versus the W08's rather unstable rear and one may even stretch to say Ferrari had the slimmest of edges in 2017.
At the time we assumed Vettel = Hamilton over 1 lap. Which was fair at the time and is still my opinion give or take 0.1. Unless Raikkonen absolutely sucked that year, Vettel appeared to be at the very top of his game.The overwhelming consensus was that Mercedes was better over 1 lap, at the time and that still remains today due to the engine modes they had for qualifying. I don’t think anybody thinks the Ferrari was quicker over 1 lap?

Ferrari got 5 poles and in 11/20 races was either on pole or within 0.1. It wasn’t a complete landslide but at some tracks it was for Mercedes. However if Vettel was 0.1 quicker he would have got half the poles that year but 6 of them would have been by a tiny margin.

I would also add that the best driver and pit wall will prevail, both drivers have lost and won races from pit wall calls this season.
Remind me, i didnt think there had been that many. Obvious one is mercedes in france and RB in monza, the latter didnt result in a race loss tho

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Johnson
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

Bahrain was won on strategy

Spain was won on strategy (Mercedes might have won anyway)

France was lost on strategy by Mercedes

Turkey had lots of influence of strategy

Monza pit stop cost Max massively

Imola was massively influenced by strategy too on who lead after the first stops

Pretty much every race they have both been running at the front bar the few where one of them dominated

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1_Ernie »

Johnson wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:38 am
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:50 am
I will attempt to be as unbiased as possible here and take off my Max goggles.

Red Bull was faster:

Bahrain
Monaco
Baku
Austria
Styria
Zandvoort

Mercedes was faster:

Spain
Portugal
Hungary
Monza
Russia
Turkey

Too close to call:

Emilia-Romagna
France

Not enough data:

Silverstone
Spa
That’s spot on I would say :thumbup:

The difference is Verstappen has been unluckier and should be 30-40 points ahead.

One thing I will say, that does not go mentioned is that yes Red Bull have been unluckier overall but they have not had rain or a dodgy safety car at any of there strong tracks. In 5 of the 6 they lead every lap from pole with the exception being Bahrain where Mercedes got them strategically but still lead the first half from pole.

Mercedes have had the freak rain in Hungary and a circumstance never seen in F1 history, sprint qualifying in Monza and Silverstone (which means you need to ace 2 starts, not 1) late rain in qualifying and race in Russia and then rain again in Turkey (grid penalty and No DRS for Hamilton to cruise through with). Mercedes have had a lot of variables to deal with in there strong tracks. Even Spa looked like a Mercedes track if dry and it rained. Monza, Hamilton has made 2 bad starts all year and does it at the race his car is most dominant. They’ve also taken all there grid penalties in all there strong race.

In all 6 strong Mercedes tracks, the only 1 they lead from pole in was Turkey. They somehow lost the lead in all the other 5, whether it be rain, grid penalties or something else like a long run to turn 1 and getting slipstreamed or a rare bad start.
Like you say Mercedes/Hamilton just havent maximised results when they have the car advantage. Not like RB with Austria x2, Monaco, Zandvoort and it would have been the same with Baku.
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2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Tufty »

Johnson wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:49 pm
Bahrain was won on strategy

Spain was won on strategy (Mercedes might have won anyway)

France was lost on strategy by Mercedes

Turkey had lots of influence of strategy

Monza pit stop cost Max massively

Imola was massively influenced by strategy too on who lead after the first stops

Pretty much every race they have both been running at the front bar the few where one of them dominated
It's a bit unfair to say Mercedes lost the French GP on strategy, surely that goes as a strategic win to Red Bull the same way as Spain does for Mercedes?
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1Tyrant »

Tufty wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:01 pm
It's a bit unfair to say Mercedes lost the French GP on strategy, surely that goes as a strategic win to Red Bull the same way as Spain does for Mercedes?
Yeah, it was pretty genius to maximise their running on the medium tyres where their pace was on par with Mercedes rather than try to compete with Mercedes on the hard tyre who had a significant edge.
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Yeboah24
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Yeboah24 »

Imo we will see a max title unless we see lewis return to his 18 or 19 form..mistakes wise. Just deliver every session

Saying that, i thought that was one of lewis best Q3 performances this year, so theres hope in that regard

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Johnson
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

Tufty wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:01 pm
Johnson wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:49 pm
Bahrain was won on strategy

Spain was won on strategy (Mercedes might have won anyway)

France was lost on strategy by Mercedes

Turkey had lots of influence of strategy

Monza pit stop cost Max massively

Imola was massively influenced by strategy too on who lead after the first stops

Pretty much every race they have both been running at the front bar the few where one of them dominated
It's a bit unfair to say Mercedes lost the French GP on strategy, surely that goes as a strategic win to Red Bull the same way as Spain does for Mercedes?
Mercedes lost it, it was an own goal. They left Hamilton out for 2 laps after Verstappen. Allowing him undercut, biggest strategic own goal of the season. If they pitted Hamilton the lap after, it’s a simple Hamilton win as he gets clear air on the hards (which favoured the Mercedes)

In Spain, Red Bull made no error

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Advantage Verstappen now.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Paolo_Lasardi »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:19 pm
Advantage Verstappen now.
:thumbup:

Yes, his wdc to lose - but not over yet.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by JN23 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:19 pm
Advantage Verstappen now.
Yep. Quite a good day in the constructors for Red Bull too as they gained 13 points on Merc and the gap is down to 27.

If Red Bull are faster in Mexico and Brazil as most expect then I think Lewis needs some luck to intervene as he’ll probably be at least 26 behind. But who knows.

If Red Bull are faster in those two then the constructors should be super close going into the final three.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1Tyrant »

Verstappen has put one hand on the trophy. Only poor reliability or a terrible pressure weekend for Verstappen will bring Hamilton back into play. If Verstappen has a 15 point lead before Qatar and Abu Dhabi he probably has enough but Red Bull have never, ever had bulletproof reliability.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1_Ernie »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:25 pm
Verstappen has put one hand on the trophy. Only poor reliability or a terrible pressure weekend for Verstappen will bring Hamilton back into play. If Verstappen has a 15 point lead before Qatar and Abu Dhabi he probably has enough but Red Bull have never, ever had bulletproof reliability.
Before Qatar it will be at least 30 points. Theres every chance in Mexico Hamilton wont make the podium and Max wins. Then Max wins the sprint race in Brazil and race and rumours are Hamilton takes an ICE penalty, that might change depending on circumstances I guess. With normal races and reliability I'm still going with Max wins it with a race to spare.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by BlackMan »

A genuine reminder that Lewis hasn't managed to actually beat Max to a win when both finished since Spain. Sometimes you make your own luck , sometimes Mercedes makes sure they either shoot themselves in the foot with dumb pitwall calls or they simply take 'calculated' engine penalties at tracks where they should be maximising their chances instead. Mercedes are doing their best impression of Ferrari 2017-2019 this year .

This championship only got close mid Summer due to Verstappen's DNF in Silverstone. The new rules for 2021 were designed to hamper down the Mercs and they've clearly succeeded in doing so.

Redbull and Max have been the better overall package this season and I expect them to seal the title with a race to spare. Knowing Mercedes , they will probably take no penalties in Mexico or Brazil and make sure they change more parts on Bottas's car on tracks like Abu Dhabi or Saudia Arabia where they should have realistic chances for a 1-2.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Tufty »

F1_Ernie wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:36 pm
F1Tyrant wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:25 pm
Verstappen has put one hand on the trophy. Only poor reliability or a terrible pressure weekend for Verstappen will bring Hamilton back into play. If Verstappen has a 15 point lead before Qatar and Abu Dhabi he probably has enough but Red Bull have never, ever had bulletproof reliability.
Before Qatar it will be at least 30 points. Theres every chance in Mexico Hamilton wont make the podium and Max wins. Then Max wins the sprint race in Brazil and race and rumours are Hamilton takes an ICE penalty, that might change depending on circumstances I guess. With normal races and reliability I'm still going with Max wins it with a race to spare.
I admire that confidence!
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by BlackMan »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:25 pm
Verstappen has put one hand on the trophy. Only poor reliability or a terrible pressure weekend for Verstappen will bring Hamilton back into play. If Verstappen has a 15 point lead before Qatar and Abu Dhabi he probably has enough but Red Bull have never, ever had bulletproof reliability.
What are you on about? Redbull had 0 reliability problems this year with their cars. All their DNF'S were either collisions or some freak tyre punctures out of their control. Honda had 1 power unit DNF all season long while Mercedes keeps changing parts on their units like lego bricks.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1_Ernie »

Tufty wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:04 pm
F1_Ernie wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:36 pm
F1Tyrant wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:25 pm
Verstappen has put one hand on the trophy. Only poor reliability or a terrible pressure weekend for Verstappen will bring Hamilton back into play. If Verstappen has a 15 point lead before Qatar and Abu Dhabi he probably has enough but Red Bull have never, ever had bulletproof reliability.
Before Qatar it will be at least 30 points. Theres every chance in Mexico Hamilton wont make the podium and Max wins. Then Max wins the sprint race in Brazil and race and rumours are Hamilton takes an ICE penalty, that might change depending on circumstances I guess. With normal races and reliability I'm still going with Max wins it with a race to spare.
I admire that confidence!
Let's wait and see, I feel confident Max will be over 25 points ahead of Hamilton under normal circumstances before the last race.
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2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

Mexico will be interesting, the form book says Red Bull should walk it, but who knows this year.

Previous form at the circuit and their recent resurgence also suggests that Ferrari may give Mercedes a hard time there which could have huge implications for the championship.

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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1Tyrant »

BlackMan wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:05 pm
What are you on about? Redbull had 0 reliability problems this year with their cars.
This is what I am saying. The RB16B is the most reliable car the team has ever built. Never before have they built a car this bulletproof but history implies they might have a mechanical DNF before the season is out.
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Delphic »

BlackMan wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:00 pm
A genuine reminder that Lewis hasn't managed to actually beat Max to a win when both finished since Spain. Sometimes you make your own luck , sometimes Mercedes makes sure they either shoot themselves in the foot with dumb pitwall calls or they simply take 'calculated' engine penalties at tracks where they should be maximising their chances instead. Mercedes are doing their best impression of Ferrari 2017-2019 this year .

This championship only got close mid Summer due to Verstappen's DNF in Silverstone. The new rules for 2021 were designed to hamper down the Mercs and they've clearly succeeded in doing so.

Redbull and Max have been the better overall package this season and I expect them to seal the title with a race to spare. Knowing Mercedes , they will probably take no penalties in Mexico or Brazil and make sure they change more parts on Bottas's car on tracks like Abu Dhabi or Saudia Arabia where they should have realistic chances for a 1-2.
But that is not due to Lewis being an inferior driver. In my opinion Lewis's driving has been championship caliber but the support has not been. I know the rest of your post kinda alludes to that, but that one line by itself does not take into account that its not just the driving that is going to win you WDCs.

IDFD
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by IDFD »

I say you've got to give it to Max. Winning this battle in a clearly inferior car as the underdog.

I don't know what I'm more impressed by KV carrying on that nonsense.

Of Mikey pretending he's not a Verstappen fan.

Both are very impressive though.

kleefton
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by kleefton »

What Max and Redbull have done so well this season is outscore Mercedes on their supposedly more suitable venues. Mercedes and Hamilton have not upset Redbull on their known strongholds yet. Mexico and Brazil present two more opportunities for Merc to score an upset, although it is very unlikely they will do it. But this season is full of unexpected twists so I would not be surprised if they do it. imo they really have to steal one out of those two if not both if they want to win this WDC. If Rebull wins in Brazil and Mexico, then it's a wrap.

KingVoid
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by KingVoid »

Imola, Paul Ricard and Austin are three of the most significant weekends of the season in my view.

Those were exactly the type of races which Hamilton would have won against his previous rivals (namely Vettel and Rosberg), but not against Verstappen.

All still to play for, but Red Bull should be very confident heading into Mexico and Brazil.

Historically they have been as fast or faster than Mercedes around those circuits even when Mercedes was clearly the better car over the entire season (2017-2019).

Yeboah24
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Yeboah24 »

Looking like max's but you never know, red bull might have a merc brain fade the next two races whilst merc are on it strategy wise - unlikely!

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Johnson
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

I think the form post Spain answers who will win the title…

Wins-
Verstappen 7
Hamilton 2

Poles-
Verstappen 8
Hamilton 2

mikeyg123
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Johnson wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:24 pm
I think the form post Spain answers who will win the title…

Wins-
Verstappen 7
Hamilton 2

Poles-
Verstappen 8
Hamilton 2
I think your point about Red Bull winning pretty much every time they should, where as Mercedes seem to have had a few spanners in the works will be what proves decisive.

That being said Verstappen is 12 points ahead with 5 races left. A retirement from him and it's back wide open.

I wouldn't say he's got a hand on the trophy yet, but perhaps a finger.

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Mercedes-Benz
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Mercedes-Benz »

Next 2 races are suppose to favor RBR. If Perez continues his current form I think he can play a role in WC as well.
Sir Stirling Moss "Quite frankly, Kimi Raikkonen is the fastest driver in the world"

TheGiantHogweed
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Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

I didn't want to go too off topic in the latest race thread, so I thought I would reply to Pokemon's post here regarding a comparison of verstappen's and Hamilton's luck.
pokerman wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:13 pm
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:08 pm
Think what the difference in points would be had verstappen not had a puncture in baku and wasn't punted out in Britain. I believe that verstappen would be over a race win ahead of hamilton with that included. And with their luck even, probably a lot more.
I guess poor Mercedes strategy over the season doesn't count as bad luck for Hamilton?

Mercedes have also really helped hamilton at times by going against what he himself wanted. Though admittedly more so in the other direction.

However it is certainly the case hat Hamilton has had more good luck than Verstappen, and Verstappen has had more bad luck. For the ability of the cars and the fact Verstappen has the advantage here, I would still certainly say Verstappen deserves to be at least the advantage of points over Hamilton that he currently has.

If you look back over the season and compare good and bad luck, then you can see just how fortunate Hamilton has been really to be able to be this close.

He was given at least a 12 point advantage in Emilia Romagna as just after he went off track, he was saved seconds later by an unrelated safety car. Without that he will have been well over a lap down. Tail end of the points will have been the best he could hope for.

Baku is a slightly harder situation to judge. Hamilton will have finished 3rd had Verstappen not had his issue, he would have won. So that would be 25 points lost for Verstappen and 15 for Hamilton. But Hamilton threw his chance of 2nd or a win away when he had the opportunity given.

In Britain, I do think Hamilton will have won had there been no contact, but it was his fault that He knocked Verstappen out, and cost verstappen 18 points.

Hungary is very hard to judge, but I'm pretty certain that Verstappen will have had a podium without Bottas causing him damage. So lets say he lost 15 points. Hamilton was a bit unlucky to have stayed out, but then he still finished 2nd after Vettel got disqualified. If I'm being generous, lets say he lost the win and lost 7 points.

In Italy, Verstappen did have some bad luck that is forgotten by many because of what happened later. He before this had a solid qualifying and sprint, and an ok start. At least relative to Hamilton. He then had an 11 second pit stop that put him into the path of Hamilton and undid his better performance from earlier. What he did then was his own fault, but I find it a bit harder to be against him for it in the same was as I was against hamilton in Britain. To be fair on Verstappen, he would have beaten Hamilton had it not been for his stop, but factoring in this and his penalty, he made them both lose points. He did however at least get a grid drop for the next race.

I would say that Russia was one race where Verstappen got lucky, but Hamilton's team also helped Hamilton a lot here. 1 and 2 seemed unrealistic for both, but I would say Verstappen was more lucky than Hamilton. Lets say Hamilton deserved that win and Verstappen was fortunate to gain 10 points.

Regarding Hamilton's strategy in Turkey, I believe that doing exactly what the team wanted, at the time the team wanted him to do it will have got him the best result he could realistically get. He was the one who wanted to stay out. He's trusted the team before and benifitted from it. I don't blame the team for him losing 1 or two places here.

After adding this up, Verstappen would have 335.5 and Hamilton would have 309.5. I think this is reasonably fairly judged (possibly even more generous towards Hamilton), but yes, it is guessing. But I think Verstappen should in reality be this far ahead, which is just over a race win in terms of points.

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