The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

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Exediron
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Exediron »

IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
How could that have worked prior to this season when Verstappen had only had non entities as team mates where you'd have no idea how to place them?

Genuine question. As I don't understand. I had (apparently wrongly) assumed that Riciardos rating was so high due to beating Vettel and Verstappens rating was in kind due to beating Riciardo who'd beat Vettel. Because other than Riciardo, Verstappen had only beaten debuting team mates.
You're right that Verstappen doesn't contribute much statistically to Ricciardo's rating. I was speaking (imprecisely) more of how he's rated by fans; I think at this point in time coming close to Verstappen is viewed as a higher achievement than beating Vettel.

Ricciardo's rating in terms of A>B>C comparisons consists of:

Ricciardo > Vettel (2014): 0.233%
[Ricciardo vs Kvyat, which I've never processed]
Ricciardo < Verstappen (2017-2018): 0.181%
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg (2019): 0.171%
Ricciardo > Ocon (2020): 0.231%

Vettel isn't the only driver on that list who can be linked to others, including to other top drivers. Hulk and Ocon both link to Perez, who can be linked to Button and therefore both Hamilton and Alonso.

It should be noted that with Verstappen > Perez currently hovering around ~0.500, that does fit with the data via Ocon -- suggesting RIC > PER by 0.263, which would suggest Verstappen has improved slightly since 2018 when he would have been expected to be 0.474 up on Perez by that same route.

The other outlier is the Hulkenberg comparison, with Ricciardo looking slower against Hulk than he did against Ocon contrary to other comparisons which suggest Ocon is faster than Hulk.
IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
How long in to the season before you start thinking the gaps are representative? If Ric continues like this against Norris for the rest of this season and then next would you assume he's fallen off a cliff or would you start to think Norris is the real deal? Is there another case of a driver falling off this badly since you've been doing the comparisons? I know Hamilton didn't seem himself for the first half of 2013. But it was never this bad.
I think we're at the point where the gaps have to be considered broadly accurate for this season, particularly with ones that are fairly stable like Norris/Ricciardo has been. However, drivers often take a significant step forward in their second season with a team, and until we don't see that with Ricciardo I would consider this season a likely outlier.
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IDFD
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by IDFD »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:31 am

You're right that Verstappen doesn't contribute much statistically to Ricciardo's rating. I was speaking (imprecisely) more of how he's rated by fans; I think at this point in time coming close to Verstappen is viewed as a higher achievement than beating Vettel.
Cheers. Sorry for the misinterpretation. I'd certainly agree with the above at the moment. Especially after Leclerc comfortably beating Vettel too in a team that was Vettels and he's walked in to as an outsider.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:31 pm
Whilst I don't believe this is Ric's representative speed. His position in these comparisons was probably also artificially high because of his 2014 against an under performing Vettel though.
I would say clearly artificially high because of 2014 but not by a huge amount, this year as to be seen as an anomaly thus far, ultimately single seasons need some kind of validation to be taken at face value, the validation will be in what happens next season.
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pokerman
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:31 am
IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
How could that have worked prior to this season when Verstappen had only had non entities as team mates where you'd have no idea how to place them?

Genuine question. As I don't understand. I had (apparently wrongly) assumed that Riciardos rating was so high due to beating Vettel and Verstappens rating was in kind due to beating Riciardo who'd beat Vettel. Because other than Riciardo, Verstappen had only beaten debuting team mates.
You're right that Verstappen doesn't contribute much statistically to Ricciardo's rating. I was speaking (imprecisely) more of how he's rated by fans; I think at this point in time coming close to Verstappen is viewed as a higher achievement than beating Vettel.

Ricciardo's rating in terms of A>B>C comparisons consists of:

Ricciardo > Vettel (2014): 0.233%
[Ricciardo vs Kvyat, which I've never processed]
Ricciardo < Verstappen (2017-2018): 0.181%
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg (2019): 0.171%
Ricciardo > Ocon (2020): 0.231%

Vettel isn't the only driver on that list who can be linked to others, including to other top drivers. Hulk and Ocon both link to Perez, who can be linked to Button and therefore both Hamilton and Alonso.

It should be noted that with Verstappen > Perez currently hovering around ~0.500, that does fit with the data via Ocon -- suggesting RIC > PER by 0.263, which would suggest Verstappen has improved slightly since 2018 when he would have been expected to be 0.474 up on Perez by that same route.

The other outlier is the Hulkenberg comparison, with Ricciardo looking slower against Hulk than he did against Ocon contrary to other comparisons which suggest Ocon is faster than Hulk.
IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
How long in to the season before you start thinking the gaps are representative? If Ric continues like this against Norris for the rest of this season and then next would you assume he's fallen off a cliff or would you start to think Norris is the real deal? Is there another case of a driver falling off this badly since you've been doing the comparisons? I know Hamilton didn't seem himself for the first half of 2013. But it was never this bad.
I think we're at the point where the gaps have to be considered broadly accurate for this season, particularly with ones that are fairly stable like Norris/Ricciardo has been. However, drivers often take a significant step forward in their second season with a team, and until we don't see that with Ricciardo I would consider this season a likely outlier.
Ocon being slower than expected can be easily explained by him having a year out of F1 that's why I always think you need to have some context to the numbers as well, the Perez cross check would suggest that Ocon and the Hulk are close to equal.

the 2014 data I would question because it suggests Ricciardo to be the equal of Hamilton but more recent data against the Hulk and Ocon would suggest otherwise.
Lewis Hamilton #44

World Drivers Titles: 7 (1st)
Grand Prix Wins: 99 (1st)
Pole Positions: 101 (1st)
Podiums: 175 (1st)


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Exediron
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Exediron »

I'll post an update after the last three races some time soon. I've been away from my main computer quite a lot lately, but I expect I'll get a chance some time this week...
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