The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

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Exediron
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Exediron »

IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
How could that have worked prior to this season when Verstappen had only had non entities as team mates where you'd have no idea how to place them?

Genuine question. As I don't understand. I had (apparently wrongly) assumed that Riciardos rating was so high due to beating Vettel and Verstappens rating was in kind due to beating Riciardo who'd beat Vettel. Because other than Riciardo, Verstappen had only beaten debuting team mates.
You're right that Verstappen doesn't contribute much statistically to Ricciardo's rating. I was speaking (imprecisely) more of how he's rated by fans; I think at this point in time coming close to Verstappen is viewed as a higher achievement than beating Vettel.

Ricciardo's rating in terms of A>B>C comparisons consists of:

Ricciardo > Vettel (2014): 0.233%
[Ricciardo vs Kvyat, which I've never processed]
Ricciardo < Verstappen (2017-2018): 0.181%
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg (2019): 0.171%
Ricciardo > Ocon (2020): 0.231%

Vettel isn't the only driver on that list who can be linked to others, including to other top drivers. Hulk and Ocon both link to Perez, who can be linked to Button and therefore both Hamilton and Alonso.

It should be noted that with Verstappen > Perez currently hovering around ~0.500, that does fit with the data via Ocon -- suggesting RIC > PER by 0.263, which would suggest Verstappen has improved slightly since 2018 when he would have been expected to be 0.474 up on Perez by that same route.

The other outlier is the Hulkenberg comparison, with Ricciardo looking slower against Hulk than he did against Ocon contrary to other comparisons which suggest Ocon is faster than Hulk.
IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
How long in to the season before you start thinking the gaps are representative? If Ric continues like this against Norris for the rest of this season and then next would you assume he's fallen off a cliff or would you start to think Norris is the real deal? Is there another case of a driver falling off this badly since you've been doing the comparisons? I know Hamilton didn't seem himself for the first half of 2013. But it was never this bad.
I think we're at the point where the gaps have to be considered broadly accurate for this season, particularly with ones that are fairly stable like Norris/Ricciardo has been. However, drivers often take a significant step forward in their second season with a team, and until we don't see that with Ricciardo I would consider this season a likely outlier.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by IDFD »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:31 am

You're right that Verstappen doesn't contribute much statistically to Ricciardo's rating. I was speaking (imprecisely) more of how he's rated by fans; I think at this point in time coming close to Verstappen is viewed as a higher achievement than beating Vettel.
Cheers. Sorry for the misinterpretation. I'd certainly agree with the above at the moment. Especially after Leclerc comfortably beating Vettel too in a team that was Vettels and he's walked in to as an outsider.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:31 pm
Whilst I don't believe this is Ric's representative speed. His position in these comparisons was probably also artificially high because of his 2014 against an under performing Vettel though.
I would say clearly artificially high because of 2014 but not by a huge amount, this year as to be seen as an anomaly thus far, ultimately single seasons need some kind of validation to be taken at face value, the validation will be in what happens next season.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:31 am
IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
How could that have worked prior to this season when Verstappen had only had non entities as team mates where you'd have no idea how to place them?

Genuine question. As I don't understand. I had (apparently wrongly) assumed that Riciardos rating was so high due to beating Vettel and Verstappens rating was in kind due to beating Riciardo who'd beat Vettel. Because other than Riciardo, Verstappen had only beaten debuting team mates.
You're right that Verstappen doesn't contribute much statistically to Ricciardo's rating. I was speaking (imprecisely) more of how he's rated by fans; I think at this point in time coming close to Verstappen is viewed as a higher achievement than beating Vettel.

Ricciardo's rating in terms of A>B>C comparisons consists of:

Ricciardo > Vettel (2014): 0.233%
[Ricciardo vs Kvyat, which I've never processed]
Ricciardo < Verstappen (2017-2018): 0.181%
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg (2019): 0.171%
Ricciardo > Ocon (2020): 0.231%

Vettel isn't the only driver on that list who can be linked to others, including to other top drivers. Hulk and Ocon both link to Perez, who can be linked to Button and therefore both Hamilton and Alonso.

It should be noted that with Verstappen > Perez currently hovering around ~0.500, that does fit with the data via Ocon -- suggesting RIC > PER by 0.263, which would suggest Verstappen has improved slightly since 2018 when he would have been expected to be 0.474 up on Perez by that same route.

The other outlier is the Hulkenberg comparison, with Ricciardo looking slower against Hulk than he did against Ocon contrary to other comparisons which suggest Ocon is faster than Hulk.
IDFD wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
How long in to the season before you start thinking the gaps are representative? If Ric continues like this against Norris for the rest of this season and then next would you assume he's fallen off a cliff or would you start to think Norris is the real deal? Is there another case of a driver falling off this badly since you've been doing the comparisons? I know Hamilton didn't seem himself for the first half of 2013. But it was never this bad.
I think we're at the point where the gaps have to be considered broadly accurate for this season, particularly with ones that are fairly stable like Norris/Ricciardo has been. However, drivers often take a significant step forward in their second season with a team, and until we don't see that with Ricciardo I would consider this season a likely outlier.
Ocon being slower than expected can be easily explained by him having a year out of F1 that's why I always think you need to have some context to the numbers as well, the Perez cross check would suggest that Ocon and the Hulk are close to equal.

the 2014 data I would question because it suggests Ricciardo to be the equal of Hamilton but more recent data against the Hulk and Ocon would suggest otherwise.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Exediron »

I'll post an update after the last three races some time soon. I've been away from my main computer quite a lot lately, but I expect I'll get a chance some time this week...
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Exediron »

A rather belated update, due to life stuff that's been happening...

Because it's been three races instead of two, these will include the mean average between two results at the center of the range. It's not ideal, but I didn't want to just throw Italy out despite the fact that it's already happened.

Leclerc / SAINZ
Projected: 0.386% to 0.542% (Leclerc)
Current Result: 0.173% (Leclerc)
Data (click to show)

VERSTAPPEN / PEREZ
Projected: 0.385% - 0.544% (Verstappen)
Current Result: 0.604% (Verstappen)
Data (click to show)

NORRIS / RICCIARDO
Projected: 0.262% - 0.403% (Ricciardo)
Current Result: 0.305% (Norris)
Data (click to show)

STROLL / VETTEL
Projected: 0.262% - 0.316% (Vettel)
Current Result: 0.083% (Vettel)
Data (click to show)

OCON / ALONSO
Projected: 0.158% - 0.426% (Alonso)
Current Result: 0.004% (Alonso)
Data (click to show)

With Verstappen having now gone over the top of the predicted range against Perez, we now have a whopping 0% of these that actually fall inside the predicted range! Yayy...

Norris and Ricciardo remains the only one to be going in the opposite direction to the prediction, although Ocon gained back some ground on Alonso and they are poised on a razor's edge.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

More positively it has predicted the right overall result 4 times out of 5.

pokerman
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

Yeah I'm a bit behind myself having come back from holiday today, just comparing our two different systems again, mine in brackets, so:-

Leclerc > Sainz 0.173% (0.156%)
Verstappen > Perez 0.604% (0.548%)
Norris > Ricciardo 0.305% (0.307%)
Vettel > Stroll 0.083% (0.097%)
Alonso > Ocon 0.004s (-0.028s)
Last edited by pokerman on Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

4 races down this time but just 3 data points with Monza qualifying being wet.

Right here goes, looking at Leclerc there's not many data points for him, this year he was either excellent or Vettel was sub par, nevertheless at this moment in time I can only go with what happened so:-

Prediction: Leclerc > Sainz 0.47s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.22s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.2s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.15s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.12s

The gap continues to close although Leclerc always seems to have the edge, like I said previously Leclerc's prediction was based purely on how he beat Vettel who we can see now seems to be in decline.


Onto the Max v Perez matchup plenty of data points here to make a more valid judgement with a bit of variance for Perez settling into his new team, so:-

Prediction: Max > Perez 0.31s - 0.36s
Max > Perez 0.34s
Max > Perez 0.35s
Max > Perez 0.37s
Max > Perez 0.43s

This is now starting to move slightly above the prediction however it should be noted that Max gets the car updates first.


Next the Ricciardo/Norris matchup, we have very recent data for this again to make a solid predication, again a bit of variance for Ricciardo settling into his new team, so:-

Prediction: Ricciardo > Norris 0.21s - 0.26s.
Norris > Ricciardo 0.26s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.33s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.33s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.24s

It seems that Ricciardo may be getting more use to the McLaren, the original prediction based on the belief that Norris was barely a top 10 driver, this can no longer be the case, he's clearly stepped his game up.


Moving onto Vettel and Stroll, if he wants to recover his reputation then really needs to improve on this prediction:-

Prediction: Vettel > Stroll 0.2s
Stroll > Vettel 0.02s
Vettel > Stroll 0.05s
Vettel > Stroll 0.07s
Vettel > Stroll 0.07s

The gap seems to be stablising at this level now, I can't even consider Vettel to be a top 10 driver given his performance level these past 2 years.


Alonso against Ocon, can Alonso be back at his best, he needs to because even at his best I would be predicting this:-

Prediction: Alonso > Ocon 0.15s
Ocon > Alonso 0.31
Ocon > Alonso 0.23s
Ocon > Alonso 0.04s
Ocon > Alonso 0.02s

I'm beginning to think this could be Alonso's level now which shows a slight deterioration in one lap speed but come race day Alonso still looks formidable.


Next is something we can't really know, Gasly against Tsunoda, I see Gasly as being a little better than average while Tsunoda is talented and a fast learner, I think he can contain Gasly to no more than this prediction:-

Prediction: Gasly > Tsunoda 0.1s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.3s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.32s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.31s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.46s

Tsunoda seems to be getting worse, I think he has to be thankful for one last year of Honda influence.


Finally two rookies Schumacher and Mazepin, both slow learners so who has impressed me more as juniors and that would be Schumacher, however I don't see Schumacher as being super fast so I predict:-

Prediction: Schumacher > Mazepin 0.1s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.54s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.45s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.4s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.42s

This is now beginning to look like Mazepin's level but Daddy's money will keep him in F1.
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