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Canada, according to the pundits, is one of the tracks where Ferrari and Red Bull are supposed to have their best chance at endingthe Merc dominance. Of course they could be just jerking our chain.

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Mission WinLater

We are at what was the turning point for Hamilton in 2018,he finished ahead of Bottas 13-0 in the races after Canada 2018. Although that would be 12-1 without Russia’s team order.

But before Canada 2018, it 4-3 to Hamilton which would have been 3-4 without his Baku puncture.

2019,Bottas is now 5-2 down in ahead when both finished. Has he been better this year still? Will he fall away as badly as 2018?

He is slightly closer in the WDC standings this year, 34 points vs 29 points. I’m still not convinced Hamilton has clicked with the car yet so maybe Bottas can gain some ground I’m the coming races. If Hamilton finishes ahead in the next 2 races, Bottas is going to need a miracle.

i'm not sure Bottas is done yet, even with a poor showing in Canada he still seems to be on it.

If anything else the more pressure on him the more dangerous he will become to LH. He will start taking serious risks on track for overtakes etc.

It will be interesting to see.

I think it's going the same way as the last 2 seasons, at this stage of the season Bottas is still strong, I guess that we soon forget that in 2017 it was 6-5 in qualifying to Hamilton with Hamilton only 19 points ahead after 11 races, last year was weighted towards Hamilton early on with Bottas' bad luck.

It will be interesting to see if yet again Hamilton can stretch his legs in the second half of the season?

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

Big weekend for Valtteri, I feel. Needs to capture that bit of form he started the season with as Lewis is already 4 points clear of the DNF window. If Hamilton win this weekend with Bottas finishing anything worse than a further 7 points behind it will take a special purple patch for him to overcome the gap.

It must be quite annoying throwing everything you have at someone who just seems to be an inevitable juggernaut at the moment. No matter what you do, it keeps marching forwards. At some point it must be demoralising.

Bottas needed three things to win the 2019 title.

- Ferrari and Red Bull being a out of the running. So far that one is a big tick.

-To be well and truly 'on it' himself. That one is largely a tick too with a horrible Montreal as an outlier.

-Reliability issues for Hamilton. So far a big red cross there.

To be fair, Bottas finished in a realistic position in Canada. Ferrari wee not out of the running there, they looked better. But if you ignore the result, yes his race was not strong. Btu I don't think his pace was the issue. It was him being over cautious. As when he got past the Renault, he maintained the gap to the leaders and even set fastest lap until Leclerc got it just before he pitted.

Which is a big part of the reason why he would need a dominant Merc if he is to challenge Hamilton.

I think Valteri might be in for an unpleasant surprise if he thinks finishing miles behind Hamilton will be enough to secure him the seat next year. Don't get me wrong; all things considered, I don't think Mercedes will want to rock the boat and replace him. I just think that Ocon makes things a little complicated. In Esteban they have a young talent with quite a bit of potential. He brings something to the table that Bottas doesn't and that's youth. Valteri is far from old but if Mercedes are thinking of a succession plan for Hamilton; Bottas isn't it. Valteri is a #2 driver when compared to the sport's best IMO and he will never be that guy that Mercedes want to hang their hat on to carry the torch. He'll be 30 this year and he really isn't the long-term solution to Hamilton retiring or leaving for Ferrari (one of which will likely happen in the near future).

Personally, Ocon doesn't have me convinced. My guess is that he is of about the same caliber as Bottas overall; complete with greater strength in qualifying than in the race. That said; his youth and rapid pace give him the glow of "potential" that Bottas no longer has. Bottas is becoming a known commodity now and the verdict is that he's a second tier performer. Solid and quick but not the guy you want leading the charge in a close title battle between an evenly matched or superior adversary. Mercedes may decide that a bit of uncertainty is worth finding out what Ocon is made of. Worst case scenario; they have a younger version of Valteri and can replace Hamilton when the time comes with either Max or Charles. Best case scenario; they have a driver of a similar caliber to Leclerc.

I think Valteri has to win more races and become a bit more competitive with Lewis (especially on Sunday) if he wants to secure that seat. What he's doing now may be enough but it may also not be. These last 2 races do little to separate Valteri from anyone else in the field and there are multiple chargers waiting in the wings. Don't forget about Russell either. He might be an even more promising youngster than Esteban.

Bottas is always strong in the first half of seasons and this is the period when he's had his contract renewed, however this season I believe Mercedes might wait until September before making a decision on Bottas normally a time in the season were he loses form, people soon forget how you might have performed earlier in the season.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

I think they'll get it done soon. Gives the non chosen driver a chance to find a different seat.

I'm surprised no one has floated the conspiracy theory that Hamilton's slow starts are designed to get Bottas renewed and then, once the ink is dry, Lewis starts being serious lol.

No I believe they stated before the year that they would wait much later in the season this time, they have a bigger problem of finding Ocon a seat and they may be mindful of the way Bottas seems to lose form during the season?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

Indeed but seriously it's incredible how consistently the seasons have panned out between Hamilton and Bottas, my qualifying data after 8 races:-

2017
Hamilton 0.08s (5-3)

2018
Hamilton 0.04s (5-3)

2019
Hamilton 0.07s (5-3)

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

I think it's more a case of Hamilton taking time to get to his 100%. Hamilton starts OKayish, but gets insanely better as the season progresses.

Well the pattern of Lewis coming on strong in the second half of the season goes well before Valtteri came on board. In 2016 Lewis almost erased a large point lead that Nico Rosberg had built up in the early part of the year. As of the Japan Grand Prix Nico had a 33 point lead. In the next four races Lewis reduced that to a five point lead at the end of the year.

In 2014 Lewis won six out of the last seven races after having a fairly mediocre summer. 2015 is the exception where Nico won the last three races of the year.

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Mission WinLater

well, 6 - 4 to Hamilton in qualifying and effectively 5 - 5 in terms of who started ahead between them is not bad at all for Bottas. When Hamilton isn't on top form, Bottas does seem to be doing what he needs to. He will need to work on his races though as he's only looked better 3 times, one of which Hamilton clearly wasn't strong at all.

I also think it is quite something for Bottas to have taken 4 poles compared to 3 for Hamilton this year when we are pretty much half way through the season. Now when we get just past half way, Hamilton still won't have had more than Bottas. Is Bottas more comfortable with the car over one lap when it looks to be the best out there or has hamilton just messed up a few times? I know Bottas's race pace usually isn't great, but I still think he's better than last year in both the races and qualifying overall.

It's virtually identical to the last 2 years, back I guess to having a personal opinion rather than looking at the maths?

2017
Hamilton 6-4 Bottas (0.13s)

2018
Hamilton 6-4 Bottas (0.06s)

2019
Hamilton 6-4 Bottas (0.08s)

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

Fun fact: In 2014, Massa outraced Bottas 6-1 in the final seven races of the season. Bottas only finished ahead in Russia, where Massa had to start from the back because of engine problems.

It seems like Bottas struggling in the second half of the season is a problem that stretches beyond 2017. Maybe he just sucks around all the circuits in the final half of the season apart from Russia.

So it's Bottas being inconsistent rather than Hamilton?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

I make it 5-2 in favour of Massa for 2014.

2015: Bottas finished ahead 4 times to Massa's 2 with a double retirement in USA. One of Massa's two was Russia where Kimi took him out towards the end.

2016: 4-3 to Massa but a few retirements in there so not sure if that affected anything.

It might be a bit of both Bottas struggling a bit at those circuits and something to do with Hamilton raising his game, but not sure he 'sucks'.

Bottas strength is 1 lap, he out qualified Massa 5-2 in those same 7 races.

It seems that Valtteri is having a difficult time coming to terms with the fact that he will only win races when Lewis is not in top form or when he is leading and passing is so difficult as to make it nearly impossible.

Still since the start of 2017, Valtteri has 5 wins to Kimi Raikkonen's 1. Yet, if he stays at Merc, it seems that his role will be to support the number 1 driver like Kimi did for Seb.

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Mission WinLater

The biggest problem for him will be they seem to be allowing there drivers to run different strategies. Which means Hamilton is going to win a lot more races without getting pole.

The pace of Bottas kinda vanished on Sunday. His rpbust defence saved him from embarassment because I think Hamilton would have left him behind by quite a margin in that first stint.

Guess we got the definitive answer.

It's gone the same way as the past two years: a promising start but he then steadily falls off as the season goes on. There never was a Bottas 2.0.

Marty bringing up whether or not Bottas will be at Merc next season in his interview with Wolff was really poor form. Who does that? Bottas will see it. The team will see it. It is embarrassing and absolutely unnecessary.

Everytime Bottas has an off race, he's 'gone'. That is pointless. Anyone can have a bad race. Nico had many and was also 'gone' according to fans until he beat Hamilton and became champion. Then quit - who wouldn't? Jenson beat Hamilton too after being relegated to Mr. Second by some. Bottas deserves a fair chance. The team messed him up and the car this season, and if you give him those points back, he isn't looking too bad.

I say give Bottas time - he'll bounce back.

Bottas has had a splendid chance already at Mercedes so it will be hardly controversial on that front if he gets replaced.

Bottas is the perfect number 2, why would Mercedes change anything? Hamilton is around for quite abit longer and is the best on on the grid. Not the best start but was unlucky today. It actually benefited the race otherwise Hamilton would have been stuck in the train. Great qualifier but lacks behind Hamilton quite abit in race pace.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018

What did Mercedes mess up for Bottas this season and what points does he need back, this confuses me?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)