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PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:33 pm 
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Invade wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Apparently Verstappen has a performance clause in his contract and could leave Red Bull at the end of this year, Hamilton and Verstappen at Mercedes against Vettel and Leclerc at Ferrari, wow. 8O


Now that's the dream. Let's get all the best drivers in the best cars.

Bottas had better bounce back bigtime should RBR flounder badly this season. ;)

That would make 2020 the best F1 season perhaps ever


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:55 pm 
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I don't really understand all the bounce back stuff, bounce back to what?

Ignoring the Russian GP which is an anomaly for him where he is very strong. He basically 2-3 of three strong weekends in 2017 but was poor in over half the races. 2018 was the same, a strong 2-3 races (which was more likely Hamilton actually under performing - China, Baku etc) and poor in about half the races. Both seasons have played out very similarly, that is his level which is miles off Hamilton about 50% of the time, close but behind Hamilton 30% of the time, close but ahead of Hamilton - 10% and signifcantly quicker than Hamilton - 10%.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:17 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
I don't really understand all the bounce back stuff, bounce back to what?

Ignoring the Russian GP which is an anomaly for him where he is very strong. He basically 2-3 of three strong weekends in 2017 but was poor in over half the races. 2018 was the same, a strong 2-3 races (which was more likely Hamilton actually under performing - China, Baku etc) and poor in about half the races. Both seasons have played out very similarly, that is his level which is miles off Hamilton about 50% of the time, close but behind Hamilton 30% of the time, close but ahead of Hamilton - 10% and signifcantly quicker than Hamilton - 10%.


This.

At the moment his recent results have not really strayed outside the percentages that you suggested, so there is no observable improvement in Bottas yet. :-)


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:11 pm 
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F1 Racer wrote:
Johnson wrote:
I don't really understand all the bounce back stuff, bounce back to what?

Ignoring the Russian GP which is an anomaly for him where he is very strong. He basically 2-3 of three strong weekends in 2017 but was poor in over half the races. 2018 was the same, a strong 2-3 races (which was more likely Hamilton actually under performing - China, Baku etc) and poor in about half the races. Both seasons have played out very similarly, that is his level which is miles off Hamilton about 50% of the time, close but behind Hamilton 30% of the time, close but ahead of Hamilton - 10% and signifcantly quicker than Hamilton - 10%.


This.

At the moment his recent results have not really strayed outside the percentages that you suggested, so there is no observable improvement in Bottas yet. :-)


True.

You could almost change the name to Sebastian Vettel and let it run!!!!


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:20 pm 
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After Quali in Shanghai I would say that Valtteri is starting to put on more of a show than he has in his previous seasons at Mercedes. If he cruises to victory tomorrow, we are going to have to wonder, what has changed since last year between Valtteri and Lewis.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 12:00 am 
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Mort Canard wrote:
After Quali in Shanghai I would say that Valtteri is starting to put on more of a show than he has in his previous seasons at Mercedes. If he cruises to victory tomorrow, we are going to have to wonder, what has changed since last year between Valtteri and Lewis.


Qualifying score between Hamilton and Bottas in 2019 through China: 2-1 Hamilton
Qualifying score between Hamilton and Bottas in 2018 through China: 2-1 Bottas

Bottas also had the chance for GP wins in the early part of 2018 but Vettel put in a feisty drive in Bahrain, RBR punished strategic complacency in China and Bottas got royally pooped in Baku.

So what's really the difference.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 12:15 am 
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Invade wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
After Quali in Shanghai I would say that Valtteri is starting to put on more of a show than he has in his previous seasons at Mercedes. If he cruises to victory tomorrow, we are going to have to wonder, what has changed since last year between Valtteri and Lewis.


Qualifying score between Hamilton and Bottas in 2019 through China: 2-1 Hamilton
Qualifying score between Hamilton and Bottas in 2018 through China: 2-1 Bottas

Bottas also had the chance for GP wins in the early part of 2018 but Vettel put in a feisty drive in Bahrain, RBR punished strategic complacency in China and Bottas got royally pooped in Baku.

So what's really the difference.


Exactly. I think some people are way overreacting here to VB massively turning around his pace. If he's leading the championship after 6 rounds then a case can possibly be made for improvement, but for now it's way too soon.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 12:57 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
Invade wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
After Quali in Shanghai I would say that Valtteri is starting to put on more of a show than he has in his previous seasons at Mercedes. If he cruises to victory tomorrow, we are going to have to wonder, what has changed since last year between Valtteri and Lewis.


Qualifying score between Hamilton and Bottas in 2019 through China: 2-1 Hamilton
Qualifying score between Hamilton and Bottas in 2018 through China: 2-1 Bottas

Bottas also had the chance for GP wins in the early part of 2018 but Vettel put in a feisty drive in Bahrain, RBR punished strategic complacency in China and Bottas got royally pooped in Baku.

So what's really the difference.


Exactly. I think some people are way overreacting here to VB massively turning around his pace. If he's leading the championship after 6 rounds then a case can possibly be made for improvement, but for now it's way too soon.


Well, If he wins tomorrow that means he has gotten it done twice whereas he didn't do it once in 2018. From where Valtteri sits a very small improvement over 2018 could mean a lot more success. As you pointed out he was not that far off in 2018.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:51 am 
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Bottas has started well aside from a possibly plastic bag hampered Bahrain, but he cannot let his level drop one bit. If Hamilton stretches out the gap over the next few races and then Ferrari start getting it right then he could be dumped back into a number 2 role.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:14 am 
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Invade wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
After Quali in Shanghai I would say that Valtteri is starting to put on more of a show than he has in his previous seasons at Mercedes. If he cruises to victory tomorrow, we are going to have to wonder, what has changed since last year between Valtteri and Lewis.


Qualifying score between Hamilton and Bottas in 2019 through China: 2-1 Hamilton
Qualifying score between Hamilton and Bottas in 2018 through China: 2-1 Bottas

Bottas also had the chance for GP wins in the early part of 2018 but Vettel put in a feisty drive in Bahrain, RBR punished strategic complacency in China and Bottas got royally pooped in Baku.

So what's really the difference.


On track, Bottas was actaully 2-0 up in 2018. Hamilton 1 was when Bottas crashed out in Australia. But, Bahrain 2018, Hamilton had a grid penalty, sub optimum strategy and was 12 seconds adrift by the time he cleared the cars his penalty put him behind. So comparisons are a bit clouded to last year. His pace seems about the same as the start of last year to me. The key difference being the error in Australian Gp qualifying in 2018.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:22 pm 
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Well, Valtteri didn't show any performance advantage over Lewis today, but he didn't give up much either. Will have to see how the rest of the season progresses. Right now he seems to be the only one who can stand between LH and #6.

I have to say that Valtteri does seem to be a little less happy to come second to Lewis this year. I am guessing he has realized that this is his make or break year. in the Merc.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:46 pm 
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Mort Canard wrote:
Well, Valtteri didn't show any performance advantage over Lewis today, but he didn't give up much either. Will have to see how the rest of the season progresses. Right now he seems to be the only one who can stand between LH and #6.

I have to say that Valtteri does seem to be a little less happy to come second to Lewis this year. I am guessing he has realized that this is his make or break year. in the Merc.


Lewis could have been managing his pace though because the Ferrari's were so slow. Lewis was mentioning about if Valteri was being pressured towards the end because Lewis wanted to drive at an even slower pace to save engine life, so he was likely driving within himself for large parts of the race.

In Bahrain, had the Ferrari's not been quick and forced Lewis to go as fast as he could, then maybe he would have managed the gap to Valteri there too instead of thrashing him, for example.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:45 pm 
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Mort Canard wrote:
Well, Valtteri didn't show any performance advantage over Lewis today, but he didn't give up much either. Will have to see how the rest of the season progresses. Right now he seems to be the only one who can stand between LH and #6.

I have to say that Valtteri does seem to be a little less happy to come second to Lewis this year. I am guessing he has realized that this is his make or break year. in the Merc.


I am not suggesting Bottas was slow today, but if Hamilton is leading and Bottas is 2nd, Hamilton will never pull a huge gap. Hamilton wins the race as slowly as possible these days, if his team mate is behind him and he knows he can't run a different strategy to him - he gets a 5-6 second gap and manages it. This is especially so after Malaysia 2016, Hamilton is constantly preserving his engine these days whenever he can.

The only times you see Hamilton have a huge gap over Bottas in a race is when Hamilton has to push hard to fight another car, usually Vettel and both of them leave Bottas.


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PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 10:06 pm 
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I started writing this in the driver ratings thread, but then realised that I'd started to go off topic a bit. So given i posted it here, I added some more to it.



Overall, as a bottas fan myself, I wouldn't say he's been better than Hamilton. But I certainly could say they've been equal if anything so far this season.

Looking at the qualifying, the gap between them in race weekend order was:

0.112, 0.66, 0.023 and 0.059. The first 2 where Hamilton beat Bottas and the other two the other way round. They have both been incredibly close each time. I don't think Hamilton has been underperforming here. Bottas has been really impressive in qualifying.

Hamilton did have an issue in Australia, but I don't know what proof there is of how much time it cost him really. Given that some places said Bottas had a plastic bag effecting his pace in the following race (throughout most of it and not just near the end), that potentially could be some of the reasoning behind his inconsistent pace. Although I personally think both struggled a bit anyway in the races where they had a problem. Although I think Bottas did struggle more and the problem likely won't have had as much of an effect as Hamilton's did in Australia. In China, Hamilton looked to be very strong in the race. He didn't dominate Bottas but won quite comfortably. But I can't say there was anything negative about Bottas's weekend.

The latest race in Baku, it was clear Hamilton was always close to Bottas, but at a track like this, if he had the speed, I struggle to understand how he couldn't get past. Basically, i think that if he was faster, there will have been almost nothing in it. Bottas did very well to keep him behind at the start and also to make sure he made no mistakes at the final corner near the end when he was under pressure.


As I thought at the start of this season, i see some changes in how Bottas is approaching things now. His personality has changed, and determination to have more fighting spirit. The way he was just so desperate for that fastest lap in Australia showed something had changed in my view. Then the way he kept Hamilton behind this latest race in the first corner. He used to quite often leave it too late and loose places at the start. And when he underperformed, him being hard on himself seemed to result in a stream of rather unimpressive races.

I was more confident than others though that even at the end of last year, i thought that he would likely still get to keep his seat for the 2020 season. Given the start of this season, i am even more doubtful that they will go for any other line up now. And given just how good it has been with four 1 - 2 finishes, that just shows that at the moment, this line up is as strong as it could be. And what looks good for Bottas is that he's managed to get 2 poles, 2 wins and obviously the bonus point due to getting fastest lap on one occasion, which has resulted in him leading the championship.
If confidence is what Bottas needs to perform, I'm reasonably confident he will at least be able to remain reasonably close to Hamilton from now on and beat him more often than he has the previous 2 years. If things go this way which I certainly think is a possibility, I don't see why Mercedes wouldn't sign him with another deal for more than 1 year. They have signed him for a 1 year contract 3 times now, so have obviously twice had enough confidence to sign him on again. So if they do decide keep hold of him, i think it is more likely than not that he will get more than just a 1 year deal.


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PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 10:24 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
I started writing this in the driver ratings thread, but then realised that I'd started to go off topic a bit. So given i posted it here, I added some more to it.



Overall, as a bottas fan myself, I wouldn't say he's been better than Hamilton. But I certainly could say they've been equal if anything so far this season.

Looking at the qualifying, the gap between them in race weekend order was:

0.112, 0.66, 0.023 and 0.059. The first 2 where Hamilton beat Bottas and the other two the other way round. They have both been incredibly close each time. I don't think Hamilton has been underperforming here. Bottas has been really impressive in qualifying.

Hamilton did have an issue in Australia, but I don't know what proof there is of how much time it cost him really. Given that some places said Bottas had a plastic bag effecting his pace in the following race (throughout most of it and not just near the end), that potentially could be some of the reasoning behind his inconsistent pace. Although I personally think both struggled a bit anyway in the races where they had a problem. Although I think Bottas did struggle more and the problem likely won't have had as much of an effect as Hamilton's did in Australia. In China, Hamilton looked to be very strong in the race. He didn't dominate Bottas but won quite comfortably. But I can't say there was anything negative about Bottas's weekend.

The latest race in Baku, it was clear Hamilton was always close to Bottas, but at a track like this, if he had the speed, I struggle to understand how he couldn't get past. Basically, i think that if he was faster, there will have been almost nothing in it. Bottas did very well to keep him behind at the start and also to make sure he made no mistakes at the final corner near the end when he was under pressure.


As I thought at the start of this season, i see some changes in how Bottas is approaching things now. His personality has changed, and determination to have more fighting spirit. The way he was just so desperate for that fastest lap in Australia showed something had changed in my view. Then the way he kept Hamilton behind this latest race in the first corner. He used to quite often leave it too late and loose places at the start. And when he underperformed, him being hard on himself seemed to result in a stream of rather unimpressive races.

I was more confident than others though that even at the end of last year, i thought that he would likely still get to keep his seat for the 2020 season. Given the start of this season, i am even more doubtful that they will go for any other line up now. And given just how good it has been with four 1 - 2 finishes, that just shows that at the moment, this line up is as strong as it could be. And what looks good for Bottas is that he's managed to get 2 poles, 2 wins and obviously the bonus point due to getting fastest lap on one occasion, which has resulted in him leading the championship.
If confidence is what Bottas needs to perform, I'm reasonably confident he will at least be able to remain reasonably close to Hamilton from now on and beat him more often than he has the previous 2 years. If things go this way which I certainly think is a possibility, I don't see why Mercedes wouldn't sign him with another deal for more than 1 year. They have signed him for a 1 year contract 3 times now, so have obviously twice had enough confidence to sign him on again. So if they do decide keep hold of him, i think it is more likely than not that he will get more than just a 1 year deal.


The bit in bold is very easy, 2 identical Mercedes on the same strategy will very rarely overtake each other on track, it was always won at the first corner and we saw this between 14-16, you normally need to be around 1.5 seconds quicker at most tracks plus the middle sector is like a Monaco sector and hard to keep close.

Also on the first corner in Baku if that was Vettel or Rosberg we would have seen Hamilton be abit more aggressive which would mean backing out and losing places.

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PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 11:43 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Also on the first corner in Baku if that was Vettel or Rosberg we would have seen Hamilton be abit more aggressive which would mean backing out and losing places.

Or hitting each other and losing every place. Being aggressive carries a risk - it's not just something you do to magically make overtakes happen.

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PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2019 12:55 am 
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Exediron wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Also on the first corner in Baku if that was Vettel or Rosberg we would have seen Hamilton be abit more aggressive which would mean backing out and losing places.

Or hitting each other and losing every place. Being aggressive carries a risk - it's not just something you do to magically make overtakes happen.


I know that but Hamilton had the inside and could have easily pushed Bottas out abit further, there wasnt really much risk factor for Hamilton apart from if Bottas decided to go full speed back into his car which he would have never done. We have seen Hamilton and Rosberg do it for years on the first corner, Bottas would have backed out and lost places though.

Like Hamilton said after the race Bottas would have lost places and so would have the team, it's only 4 races in and Hamilton knows it's best to keep the peace specially if Ferrari get stronger and he needs Bottas to help out in the future, no need to cause frictions this early. If that was Rosberg though I would guarantee we would have seen something different.

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PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2019 1:01 pm 
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Qualifying;

Bottas relative to Hamilton

2018
AUS; N/A
BAH; -0.100
CHI; -0.050
BAK; +0.150

Average = 0.0

2019
AUS; +0.100
CHI; -0.040
BAH; +0.050
BAK; -0.060

Average = +0.0125

It depends how you treat Australia, but in all Q3's Bottas is actually slightly slower on average than last year. If you remove Australia from both years. He is 0.0167 quicker. Either way, very little between 2018 and 2019 on qualifying pace. Basically identical.

However, in 2018 Bottas would only out qualifying Hamilton 3 more times in the last 17 races, 4 more if you include Germany when Hamilton had a mechanical issue. It will be interesting to see if Bottas can keep it up this year and if he can also have both 1 lap pace and race pace something that he has struggled with in the past.


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PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2019 1:16 pm 
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Bottas would also have been ahead of Hamilton in the WDC after 4 races in 2018 without the puncture in Baku.


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PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2019 2:25 pm 
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Yeah there's nothing really much different than the last 2 years, in particular last year, and let's not forget that's how Bottas got 2 contract renewals.

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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:17 am 
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From what I read of their use of the tyres at the start of each year, Bottas seems to figure out how to adapt his driving better to make better use of the tyres. Once the team learn from that, then with the team using the info to develop the car and Hamilton knowing what works, Bottas's advantage is gone.

It would help Bottas if it was team policy for both drivers to allow the other to stay on the track. I doubt very much if Hamilton would accept that. It did seem when Hamilton was at McLaren, that there was more of a team policy that their drivers would be nicer to each other than they were to drivers in other teams.


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:40 am 
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babararacucudada wrote:
From what I read of their use of the tyres at the start of each year, Bottas seems to figure out how to adapt his driving better to make better use of the tyres. Once the team learn from that, then with the team using the info to develop the car and Hamilton knowing what works, Bottas's advantage is gone.

It would help Bottas if it was team policy for both drivers to allow the other to stay on the track. I doubt very much if Hamilton would accept that. It did seem when Hamilton was at McLaren, that there was more of a team policy that their drivers would be nicer to each other than they were to drivers in other teams.


I agree with this, but Bottas doesn't have an advantage in the early season - they are equal.


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 11:52 am 
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Johnson wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
From what I read of their use of the tyres at the start of each year, Bottas seems to figure out how to adapt his driving better to make better use of the tyres. Once the team learn from that, then with the team using the info to develop the car and Hamilton knowing what works, Bottas's advantage is gone.

It would help Bottas if it was team policy for both drivers to allow the other to stay on the track. I doubt very much if Hamilton would accept that. It did seem when Hamilton was at McLaren, that there was more of a team policy that their drivers would be nicer to each other than they were to drivers in other teams.


I agree with this, but Bottas doesn't have an advantage in the early season - they are equal.

Indeed it's perhaps the psychology of Bottas doing better than normal, certainly Bottas seems to hit the ground running but then can't increase his pace as it starts to turn into a sprint finish.

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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 12:14 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
From what I read of their use of the tyres at the start of each year, Bottas seems to figure out how to adapt his driving better to make better use of the tyres. Once the team learn from that, then with the team using the info to develop the car and Hamilton knowing what works, Bottas's advantage is gone.

It would help Bottas if it was team policy for both drivers to allow the other to stay on the track. I doubt very much if Hamilton would accept that. It did seem when Hamilton was at McLaren, that there was more of a team policy that their drivers would be nicer to each other than they were to drivers in other teams.


I agree with this, but Bottas doesn't have an advantage in the early season - they are equal.


True - if you ignore that Bottas is leading the World Championship.


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 12:53 pm 
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babararacucudada wrote:
Johnson wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
From what I read of their use of the tyres at the start of each year, Bottas seems to figure out how to adapt his driving better to make better use of the tyres. Once the team learn from that, then with the team using the info to develop the car and Hamilton knowing what works, Bottas's advantage is gone.

It would help Bottas if it was team policy for both drivers to allow the other to stay on the track. I doubt very much if Hamilton would accept that. It did seem when Hamilton was at McLaren, that there was more of a team policy that their drivers would be nicer to each other than they were to drivers in other teams.


I agree with this, but Bottas doesn't have an advantage in the early season - they are equal.


True - if you ignore that Bottas is leading the World Championship.

yeah, but only by the narrowest of margins.

Even if we just take Baku, either Mercedes driver got a great final qualifying run. Bottas was a bit fortunate that Hamilton got a worse run than he did but even with that and without the two Hamilton was only fractionally behind. I don't see that as Bottas having any kind of advantage and I'd suggest that the results are not especially reflective of their performances. Overall I would say that Hamilton looked quicker than Bottas in Baku and it was (qualifying and VSC) circumstance that helped keep Bottas ahead. Basically the statistical difference between the drivers so far this season has been one fastest lap by Bottas.


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 1:54 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
Johnson wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
From what I read of their use of the tyres at the start of each year, Bottas seems to figure out how to adapt his driving better to make better use of the tyres. Once the team learn from that, then with the team using the info to develop the car and Hamilton knowing what works, Bottas's advantage is gone.

It would help Bottas if it was team policy for both drivers to allow the other to stay on the track. I doubt very much if Hamilton would accept that. It did seem when Hamilton was at McLaren, that there was more of a team policy that their drivers would be nicer to each other than they were to drivers in other teams.


I agree with this, but Bottas doesn't have an advantage in the early season - they are equal.


True - if you ignore that Bottas is leading the World Championship.

yeah, but only by the narrowest of margins.

Even if we just take Baku, either Mercedes driver got a great final qualifying run. Bottas was a bit fortunate that Hamilton got a worse run than he did but even with that and without the two Hamilton was only fractionally behind. I don't see that as Bottas having any kind of advantage and I'd suggest that the results are not especially reflective of their performances. Overall I would say that Hamilton looked quicker than Bottas in Baku and it was (qualifying and VSC) circumstance that helped keep Bottas ahead. Basically the statistical difference between the drivers so far this season has been one fastest lap by Bottas.


Baku - Bottas only set faster times than Hamilton in P3, Q2, Q3 and the race at Baku, but otherwise Hamilton was faster.


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 2:31 pm 
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babararacucudada wrote:
Zoue wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
Johnson wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
From what I read of their use of the tyres at the start of each year, Bottas seems to figure out how to adapt his driving better to make better use of the tyres. Once the team learn from that, then with the team using the info to develop the car and Hamilton knowing what works, Bottas's advantage is gone.

It would help Bottas if it was team policy for both drivers to allow the other to stay on the track. I doubt very much if Hamilton would accept that. It did seem when Hamilton was at McLaren, that there was more of a team policy that their drivers would be nicer to each other than they were to drivers in other teams.


I agree with this, but Bottas doesn't have an advantage in the early season - they are equal.


True - if you ignore that Bottas is leading the World Championship.

yeah, but only by the narrowest of margins.

Even if we just take Baku, either Mercedes driver got a great final qualifying run. Bottas was a bit fortunate that Hamilton got a worse run than he did but even with that and without the two Hamilton was only fractionally behind. I don't see that as Bottas having any kind of advantage and I'd suggest that the results are not especially reflective of their performances. Overall I would say that Hamilton looked quicker than Bottas in Baku and it was (qualifying and VSC) circumstance that helped keep Bottas ahead. Basically the statistical difference between the drivers so far this season has been one fastest lap by Bottas.


Baku - Bottas only set faster times than Hamilton in P3, Q2, Q3 and the race at Baku, but otherwise Hamilton was faster.

Sure, but the only qualifying time that really matters is Q3. And there Hamilton admitted to messing up T1 and T2, due to traffic, yet still managed a tow-less time within a tenth of Bottas' time (who did get a tow, reportedly worth a good 3 tenths at least). So while Bottas ultimately posted a faster time, I think you'd have to say Hamilton looked the quicker driver.

In the race again, Bottas did post the fastest lap of the pair, but again if you look at circumstance Lewis was faster than him for the majority of the race and right at the end Bottas got a tow to pull away. No question Bottas did well, but if we're talking about who has the advantage pace-wise I think it's tenuous to say it's Bottas.


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 2:49 pm 
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babararacucudada wrote:
Johnson wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
From what I read of their use of the tyres at the start of each year, Bottas seems to figure out how to adapt his driving better to make better use of the tyres. Once the team learn from that, then with the team using the info to develop the car and Hamilton knowing what works, Bottas's advantage is gone.

It would help Bottas if it was team policy for both drivers to allow the other to stay on the track. I doubt very much if Hamilton would accept that. It did seem when Hamilton was at McLaren, that there was more of a team policy that their drivers would be nicer to each other than they were to drivers in other teams.


I agree with this, but Bottas doesn't have an advantage in the early season - they are equal.


True - if you ignore that Bottas is leading the World Championship.


So what you are saying is, for two drivers to be performing at an equal level, they must have an exact identical amount of points in the WDC at that exact moment?

Especially so when you’re original comment on advantage was with regards to on track and not points table.


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 5:50 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
Johnson wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
From what I read of their use of the tyres at the start of each year, Bottas seems to figure out how to adapt his driving better to make better use of the tyres. Once the team learn from that, then with the team using the info to develop the car and Hamilton knowing what works, Bottas's advantage is gone.

It would help Bottas if it was team policy for both drivers to allow the other to stay on the track. I doubt very much if Hamilton would accept that. It did seem when Hamilton was at McLaren, that there was more of a team policy that their drivers would be nicer to each other than they were to drivers in other teams.


I agree with this, but Bottas doesn't have an advantage in the early season - they are equal.


True - if you ignore that Bottas is leading the World Championship.


So what you are saying is, for two drivers to be performing at an equal level, they must have an exact identical amount of points in the WDC at that exact moment?

Especially so when you’re original comment on advantage was with regards to on track and not points table.


No - just that there are different ways of looking at things. Bottas could have eased off on the last lap at Baku, but he still pushed on for the fastest lap (before Leclerc took that away). I think that shows that Bottas is going to do what he can to stay in front.


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2019 6:05 pm 
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What does that have to do with what we are discussing. Baku was Bottas weekend anyway. You said Bottas has an advantage over Hamilton. Everything points toward them essentially being equal in these 4 races. They both have 2 wins, 2 seconds. Its 2-2 in races and 2-2 in qualifying. They are 87-86 in points. They couldn't really be anymore equal, but if you want to say Bottas has had an advantage, why has he lost 2 races and 2 qualifying sessions to Hamilton?


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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2019 8:54 am 
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It's to do with what goes on in Hamilton and Bottas' heads. Hamilton had fastest lap in Bacu and if Leclerc had screwed up his final lap, then Hamilton would have drawn level in the World Championship. But then Hamilton screwed up and ran wide, taking the pressure off Bottas. Bottas would have known about the fastest lap situation, and he could have coasted home for the win, but he took the fastest lap away from Hamilton on the last lap (then Leclerc took it on his last lap).

It shows Bottas' mindset. Bottas took the fastest lap (and the potential extra point) away from Hamilton even though Leclerc was likely to beat it. Bottas wanted to be the one who took it away from Hamilton.

That sort of thing (and Bottas ignoring the instruction to not go for fastest lap in Australia) is the kind of thing Bottas has to do to get into Hamilton's head. Bottas has to do things like that to have a chance this year.


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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2019 9:13 am 
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Bottas took the fastest lap on the 2nd to last lap, he set it as he was being put under big pressure from Hamilton. This was the lap Hamilton got closest.
He also got an advantage that lap, as he was lapping a Williams that was 3 seconds a lap slower, Bottas got to run in clean air through the majority of the lap and only caught the Williams at the end of sc2 so got a tow and DRS on the straight without the dirty air in sc1 sc2. He didn’t “go for fastest lap” he was driving as quickly as possible to avoid being overtaken and the only reason that lap was quicker than the 5 preceding it was the 0.4-0.5 advantage of a tow and DRS that he got without having the negative time loss of dirty air in sc1 and sc2.

Having said that, Bottas’ mindset has nothing to do with the fact the pair are basically equal as it quite obvious from on track results.


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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2019 10:23 am 
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Johnson wrote:
Bottas took the fastest lap on the 2nd to last lap, he set it as he was being put under big pressure from Hamilton. This was the lap Hamilton got closest.
He also got an advantage that lap, as he was lapping a Williams that was 3 seconds a lap slower, Bottas got to run in clean air through the majority of the lap and only caught the Williams at the end of sc2 so got a tow and DRS on the straight without the dirty air in sc1 sc2. He didn’t “go for fastest lap” he was driving as quickly as possible to avoid being overtaken and the only reason that lap was quicker than the 5 preceding it was the 0.4-0.5 advantage of a tow and DRS that he got without having the negative time loss of dirty air in sc1 and sc2.

Having said that, Bottas’ mindset has nothing to do with the fact the pair are basically equal as it quite obvious from on track results.


That sounds like a better analysis than mine. :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 11:29 am 
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I am starting to wonder if Bottas really has found something special in qualifying now. So far he is leading 3 - 2 to Hamilton. And had a massive 0.6 second advantage over Hamilton in the latest weekend. While Hamilton may have been effected a little on his first lap, his messy run with several mistakes were not caused by a low battery. and even on his 2nd run compared to Bottas's, he was still over 3 tenths behind Bottas. The fact that both times Bottas was behind Hamilton in qualifying, he was pretty close and had managed to beat him my a massive margin one time certainly shows that he has improved IMO.

I don't think this pole sitter looses out will always be the case. Hamilton admitted to having iffy starts that he blamed himself for. And Bottas in both China and Spain gave quite a detailed explanation as to why he struggled to get off the line. But if Mercedes continue to me dominant and Bottas keeps up his good form in qualifying, with the overtaking difficulties this year, Bottas has a good chance of getting many more wins. Even if Hamilton is a bit quicker in the race.

With Monaco coming next which hasn't always been great for Hamilton, maybe Bottas has a chance of beating him again. If either Mercedes driver get pole here and they keep the race mistake free, I think it is pretty much a guaranteed win. At the moment, they look far better than Ferrari on low grip tracks. Even with Canada and soon Austria coming up, Bottas should be able to remember that he managed to comfortably beat Hamilton before at both of these tracks. I have a feeling that at least once more in this season, Bottas will be able to match or be ahead of Hamilton in the points, but I'm not sure he'll be able to keep it up. But rather than his performance going downhill, i think it will be more like Hamilton finding more.


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PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 11:37 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
I am starting to wonder if Bottas really has found something special in qualifying now. So far he is leading 3 - 2 to Hamilton. And had a massive 0.6 second advantage over Hamilton in the latest weekend. While Hamilton may have been effected a little on his first lap, his messy run with several mistakes were not caused by a low battery. and even on his 2nd run compared to Bottas's, he was still over 3 tenths behind Bottas. The fact that both times Bottas was behind Hamilton in qualifying, he was pretty close and had managed to beat him my a massive margin one time certainly shows that he has improved IMO.

I don't think this pole sitter looses out will always be the case. Hamilton admitted to having iffy starts that he blamed himself for. And Bottas in both China and Spain gave quite a detailed explanation as to why he struggled to get off the line. But if Mercedes continue to me dominant and Bottas keeps up his good form in qualifying, with the overtaking difficulties this year, Bottas has a good chance of getting many more wins. Even if Hamilton is a bit quicker in the race.

With Monaco coming next which hasn't always been great for Hamilton, maybe Bottas has a chance of beating him again. If either Mercedes driver get pole here and they keep the race mistake free, I think it is pretty much a guaranteed win. At the moment, they look far better than Ferrari on low grip tracks. Even with Canada and soon Austria coming up, Bottas should be able to remember that he managed to comfortably beat Hamilton before at both of these tracks. I have a feeling that at least once more in this season, Bottas will be able to match or be ahead of Hamilton in the points, but I'm not sure he'll be able to keep it up. But rather than his performance going downhill, i think it will be more like Hamilton finding more.


Hamilton has not done well first half of the season, but dominates in the 2nd half. I'm glad Bottas is getting wins under his belt and hopefully Mercedes will renew his contract. Hamilton has some strong races coming up, specially in the second half. I expect a nip and tuck with both of these drivers, but come the 2nd half of the season Hamilton will outscore Bottas...


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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 12:49 am 
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Noni wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
I am starting to wonder if Bottas really has found something special in qualifying now. So far he is leading 3 - 2 to Hamilton. And had a massive 0.6 second advantage over Hamilton in the latest weekend. While Hamilton may have been effected a little on his first lap, his messy run with several mistakes were not caused by a low battery. and even on his 2nd run compared to Bottas's, he was still over 3 tenths behind Bottas. The fact that both times Bottas was behind Hamilton in qualifying, he was pretty close and had managed to beat him my a massive margin one time certainly shows that he has improved IMO.

I don't think this pole sitter looses out will always be the case. Hamilton admitted to having iffy starts that he blamed himself for. And Bottas in both China and Spain gave quite a detailed explanation as to why he struggled to get off the line. But if Mercedes continue to me dominant and Bottas keeps up his good form in qualifying, with the overtaking difficulties this year, Bottas has a good chance of getting many more wins. Even if Hamilton is a bit quicker in the race.

With Monaco coming next which hasn't always been great for Hamilton, maybe Bottas has a chance of beating him again. If either Mercedes driver get pole here and they keep the race mistake free, I think it is pretty much a guaranteed win. At the moment, they look far better than Ferrari on low grip tracks. Even with Canada and soon Austria coming up, Bottas should be able to remember that he managed to comfortably beat Hamilton before at both of these tracks. I have a feeling that at least once more in this season, Bottas will be able to match or be ahead of Hamilton in the points, but I'm not sure he'll be able to keep it up. But rather than his performance going downhill, i think it will be more like Hamilton finding more.


Hamilton has not done well first half of the season, but dominates in the 2nd half. I'm glad Bottas is getting wins under his belt and hopefully Mercedes will renew his contract. Hamilton has some strong races coming up, specially in the second half. I expect a nip and tuck with both of these drivers, but come the 2nd half of the season Hamilton will outscore Bottas...


Last year Lewis and Sebastian traded the lead back and forth through the German GP with no driver getting more than about 1 win advantage. Starting in Italy, Sebastian started melting down and Lewis started gapping him big time with four wins in a row.

Valtteri and Lewis have been trading the lead, and that may last for a few more races. My guess is that when Lewis gets down to business like he traditionally does in the second half, Valtteri will need a bundle of points in hand to stave off the rampage that is Hamilton's late season charge.

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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 12:45 pm 
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Noni wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
I am starting to wonder if Bottas really has found something special in qualifying now. So far he is leading 3 - 2 to Hamilton. And had a massive 0.6 second advantage over Hamilton in the latest weekend. While Hamilton may have been effected a little on his first lap, his messy run with several mistakes were not caused by a low battery. and even on his 2nd run compared to Bottas's, he was still over 3 tenths behind Bottas. The fact that both times Bottas was behind Hamilton in qualifying, he was pretty close and had managed to beat him my a massive margin one time certainly shows that he has improved IMO.

I don't think this pole sitter looses out will always be the case. Hamilton admitted to having iffy starts that he blamed himself for. And Bottas in both China and Spain gave quite a detailed explanation as to why he struggled to get off the line. But if Mercedes continue to me dominant and Bottas keeps up his good form in qualifying, with the overtaking difficulties this year, Bottas has a good chance of getting many more wins. Even if Hamilton is a bit quicker in the race.

With Monaco coming next which hasn't always been great for Hamilton, maybe Bottas has a chance of beating him again. If either Mercedes driver get pole here and they keep the race mistake free, I think it is pretty much a guaranteed win. At the moment, they look far better than Ferrari on low grip tracks. Even with Canada and soon Austria coming up, Bottas should be able to remember that he managed to comfortably beat Hamilton before at both of these tracks. I have a feeling that at least once more in this season, Bottas will be able to match or be ahead of Hamilton in the points, but I'm not sure he'll be able to keep it up. But rather than his performance going downhill, i think it will be more like Hamilton finding more.


Hamilton has not done well first half of the season, but dominates in the 2nd half. I'm glad Bottas is getting wins under his belt and hopefully Mercedes will renew his contract. Hamilton has some strong races coming up, specially in the second half. I expect a nip and tuck with both of these drivers, but come the 2nd half of the season Hamilton will outscore Bottas...


In a two horse race within the Mercedes team, strong track is pretty meaningless. Hamilton/Bottas can have the best weekend of their lives but if they get slipstreamed into T1 off the grid and overtaken by there team mate, they won't win the race.

We are back to, leader after turn 1 will likely win the race and these cars are so long and draggy that its even more of a lottery than ever. Its a really odd phenomenon, if the guy in P2 gets too good of a start, he actually doesn't get much slipstream, if they make an equal start he gets a little. I think the optimum start for guy in P2 is to get a ever so slightly worse start than the pole sitter for maximum slipstream. Obviously this depends on the length of the run to T1. Hamilton got too good of a start (relative to Bottas) in Spain and didn't get to slipstream. This allowed Vettel to join them come T1 as he got a massive slipstream.


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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 3:42 pm 
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I was curious to see Rosbergs qualifying performance in 2016 in the races he actually won. Given the post above about pace not really being important and just being ahead after the first turns deciding it all. Rosbergs 9 wins.

Australia +0.5 behind Hamilton, ahead after first turn
Bahrain +0.1 behind Hamiltn, ahead after first turn
China, Hamilton broke down and did not take part in Q3
Russia, Hamilton broke down and did not take part in Q3
Baku, Hamilton crashed out
Belgium, Hamilton took grid penalties, skipped Q2 and Q3
Italy, +0.5 behind Hamilton, ahead after first turn
Singapore -0.7 ahead of Hamilton, but Hamilton missed FP2 and FP3 and all night time practise sessions
Japan, 0.013 ahead, held lead and won.

In about half of the Q3's both contested, Hamilton was over 0.3 ahead in just under half of them, often around 0.5 quicker. You don't need to be quick to beat Hamilton to the title in a two horse race, just need to beat him to T1 from P2 on the grid quite a few times and hope he has slightly worse reliability.

Bottas' problem is, that Hamilton has launched better than him in the last 3 races and if Baku was a slightly longer run would have lost the lead 3 times. The 2017 Mercedes is also very reliable. Pacewise, Bottas is vastly superior to Nico's 2016.


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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 2:31 pm 
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Looking at the schedule, if Bottas can win tomorrow or even P2, he has a run of tracks he is typically very good on. Canada and Austria being 2 of the next 3. After that, there are a bunch of strong Hamilton tracks in Silverstone, Germany, Monza, Hungary, Spa and Singapore before Russia another Bottas strong track.


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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 7:16 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Looking at the schedule, if Bottas can win tomorrow or even P2, he has a run of tracks he is typically very good on. Canada and Austria being 2 of the next 3. After that, there are a bunch of strong Hamilton tracks in Silverstone, Germany, Monza, Hungary, Spa and Singapore before Russia another Bottas strong track.

Canada is a big Hamilton track. He had a bad race there last year but that's the first bad outing from him there in ages. I think Bottas has already finished his strongest patch or races relative to Hamilton. From here on; only Austria and Russia are races where I would expect him to be able to give Lewis a real run for his money. We'll see.


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