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Even if he does, will he still be a long way behind Hamilton? Is he just not that good?


Or does he have it in him to bounce back strong and put himself in the frame for a WDC?

It's fair to say he had more bad luck than Hamilton and had to endure team orders at times so I expect him to do better, if it's Hamilton's turn to have the bad luck like in 2016 then it could be a lot closer?

As for a WDC challenge I think he either needs the out and out best car or lots of luck.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

I'm struggling to work Bottas out. In both years alongside Hamilton he looked a good match for him in the first half of the season and then was nowhere near in the second half. It doesn't appear to be as simple as being inconsistent from race to race, he's been consistently fast for half a season and then consistently uncompetitive for half a season.

I don't think he'll put himself in the frame for a WDC. He can be very quick but I don't think he has the mentality of a Champion

Is this a bit like Vettel and Raikkonen in that the design is based around the main driver and the other one has to adapt? He has at times had superfast times but Hamilton is clearly a better and faster racer.

I agree to a point. Remember that the second half of the season is Lewis's time to shine. He has consistently come on strong after the summer break for years.

That said, Valtteri's second half of the season has been lackluster compared to the other drivers in the big three teams also.

Right now I don't see how he does not lose his seat to Esteban Ocon at the end of 2019. The question is then raised as to where he goes for 2020. Most of the good teams have made their decisions for drivers through the end of 2020 and the new regs. that start in 2021.

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Mission WinLater

No, because he isn’t a talented enough driver to compete with Hamilton. It’s like expecting Barrichello to bounce back against Schumacher, or Webber to bounce back against Vettel. It won’t happen because he (Bottas) simply isn’t good enough.

Bottas has been close to Hamilton near the start of both seasons. He should he can be pretty strong. This year, he let bad luck affect his performance and he looks like it either distracts him, or he can't quite focus on getting the best results after this. If he benifited from some luck near the start of the season, that i think would boost his confidence and performance massively later on. Then I think he will surprise a few. I's still not convinced Mercedes will go for Ocon. I don't know what evidence there currently is to show that he's better than Bottas. Bottas has far more experience in F1 and this team. I think Bottas still has good chance to prove he's good enough to remain. And he won't have signed a deal with an option to extend for no reason.

Well said!

He doesn't have the skill of Hamilton and he rolls over too easily.

Rosberg also didn't have the skill of Hamilton but generally speaking he gave as good as he got so far as obeying team orders etc (Monaco 2016 aside, I still think that was a big mistake from him). Rosberg effectively demanded equal treatment within the team for the most part, and he got it. Bottas will keep getting screwed until he puts his foot down and I suspect it's already too late for that with Ocon in the frame for 2020.

I doubt his biggest fans would expect him to beat Hamilton, if he could finish the year next to Hamilton in the standings that would count as a great result – even that feels a bit of a long shot.

I feel for Bottas a bit. He is a good racer but has come up against a great racer.

It was funny reading on here before Bottas joined Mercedes (I have been a long time lurker) people thought Lewis was scared of Bottas joining the team as Lewis didn't want to share car data with him. Do people still think he is scared of Bottas?

I think that's been more down to Hamilton's slow starts as he gets a grip on the new car and the new tyres, once Hamilton gets things sussed out then he basically leaves Bottas for dead.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

It might just be a case that Mercedes have made a commitment to Ocon and they will put him in the car even if he is seen as being on a similar level to Bottas?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

I think you have to take the view now that Rosberg was simply that bit better than Bottas speedwise, however in today's climate if Rosberg kept pulling some of the stunts he did I think Mercedes would sack him.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

Interesting you say that word is now that people thought Bottas was never that good.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

Maybe in qualifying yes, but I'd offset that by saying Bottas is a better wheel to wheel racer, they both falter in race pace.

I think the 14-16 Mercedes flatter Rosberg, Bottas would have looked similar in those cars and vice versa.

I don't think there's anything for Bottas to bounce back to. 2018 was sort of it really.

Barrichello was a better driver than Bottas and much closer to Michael's elite level than many give him credit for. In at least 2 seasons with Michael he was on it from the start of the season, only to be told to hang back and help ensure Michael's dominance is never jeopardized. He didn't like it but he acted like the consummate professional and adhered to his employer's wishes. Michael Knows this is well as anyone and that's why Ruby-Ruby–Rubaaay left the team. That's why he was snapped up by Honda. Honda could have singed several young, up and coming talents but they knew Rubens' worth and he was the guy they went after, and he was worth every penny.

Bottas is excellent in his own right, but he himself pointed out the biggest difference between he and Hamilton, and it was consistency. He said that while he has the talent and ability to put down a perfect lap just as good or better than anyone, Hamilton is able to do it every lap. Vettel is in the same category there, as was Alonso.

If you look at Verstappen, he has the same ability to go fast, but his consistency isn't yet quite at the same level as Hamilton and Vettel, race to race. He still make little mistakes/bobbles that cost him time and in particular, his unwillingness accept that a driver may be slightly quicker at certain times in a race causes him to push the envelope too far, when a wiser driver would realize it's best to let them by and press on so the race can come back to him.

As for Bottas, I don't think he has much to bounce back from really. He didn't do as well as Hamilton, but he wasn't all that bad, and had a victory stripped from him to ensure his teammate achieved the maximum points. I can understand him losing a bit of motivation, but I'm sure he just kept repeating to himself… Concentrate on a better 2019.

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HAMILTON :: VERSTAPPEN :: LECLERC :: BOTTAS :: VETTEL :: SAINZ :: NORRIS
KVYAT :: RAIKKONEN :: RUSSEL :: ALBON :: RICCIARDO :: HULKENBURG :: PEREZ
STROLL :: MAGNUSSEN :: GROSJEAN :: GASLY :: GIOVANAZZI :: KUBICA

Noooo Waaaaaaaaaaay!!!

Rosberg is closer to Hamilton than anyone we've ever seen, outside Alonso. That Hamilton is a supreme driver is not to say that Nico lacked much if anything.
Rosberg is a superb wheel to wheel racer and more aware than most drivers of EVERYTHING going on around him. Just ask Mr Kamikaze Daniel Ricciardo. If not for Rosberg's elite awareness in spotting a dive bombing and out of control Ricciardo, closing in at breakneck speed, they would have collided. About the only 2 times I can recall Rosberg making a mess of things was at Spa and Spain when he ELECTED to purposely stay the course and move over to cause a collision in an attempt to intimidate Hamilton.

If I owned a team and had the option of signing Rosberg or Bottas, I wouldn't even have to think about it. It would be Rosberg 100% and I'm sure most, if not all of the teams feel the same way as well.

Additionally, if Rosberg did all the things he did today, Mercedes would treat the situation exactly the same. Elite drivers are too difficult to come by and having 2 on your team is the best thing possible. And if you look back through their time together, the times Hamilton and Rosberg came together equate to an extremely low percentage. Verstappen slamming the door on his teammate on a street circuit this year was pretty extreme and his team simply bit their lip and gave him a slap in the hand. Why?… because Elite drivers are extremely difficult to find, and when you have them, you do everything you can to make sure they continue with you for as long as you can retain their services.

About the only driver I can think of that was too much personality wise for any team to even think of taking a chance on him was Tommy Byrne.

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HAMILTON :: VERSTAPPEN :: LECLERC :: BOTTAS :: VETTEL :: SAINZ :: NORRIS
KVYAT :: RAIKKONEN :: RUSSEL :: ALBON :: RICCIARDO :: HULKENBURG :: PEREZ
STROLL :: MAGNUSSEN :: GROSJEAN :: GASLY :: GIOVANAZZI :: KUBICA

I don't see it. Bottas is poor as far as being aggressive and overtaking goes but one thing he does very well is keep drivers behind him. Rosberg was poor wheel to wheel and he was nowhere near Hamilton.

Really?

Verstappen and Ricciardo both overtook Bottas several times in 2018 and they weren't the only ones.
All you have to do to realize which driver is better is look at the number of poles and wins comparative to Hamilton as his teammates.
Rosberg 1,000x out of 100 for me.

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HAMILTON :: VERSTAPPEN :: LECLERC :: BOTTAS :: VETTEL :: SAINZ :: NORRIS
KVYAT :: RAIKKONEN :: RUSSEL :: ALBON :: RICCIARDO :: HULKENBURG :: PEREZ
STROLL :: MAGNUSSEN :: GROSJEAN :: GASLY :: GIOVANAZZI :: KUBICA

You've got to be kidding, how many of Hamilton's teammates have had some of the most dominant cars in F1 history? 1, just 1.

Of course Rosberg has more wins and poles than Button and Bottas while teammates with Hamilton but as we know that's not a good indicator of how good a driver is.

I rate Button easily better than both of them and while I would rank Rosberg ahead of Bottas I don't think there's much between them.

Maybe qualifying but in the races between 2014-16 was generally a period of who leads the first corner wins with equal status, same strategy and such a dominant car. Bottas would have won plenty of races.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018

Almost nobody thought that. My memory is people being quite disappointed with the choice when he was announced as Rosberg's replacement. If this is the thread you're thinking of, it's not an allegation that Lewis was scared - just that he didn't want another Rosberg incident of helping another driver get closer to him.

Here are the other period threads I could find from the time Bottas was announced:

Bottas officially signed with Mercedes AMG Petronas
Is Bottas really fast enough to go up against Hamilton?

The general tone of both threads is very definitely not that anyone thinks Lewis will be under any threat.

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PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 15 podiums): 3rd in 2016
TOP THREE CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): Champions in 2015 & 2018 | 2nd in 2017 & 2019
AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 USA & P-F1 Champion

Agreed. The only other person that could now compete neck to neck with Hamilton is Vettel. Bottas is not even close to both Rosberg and Vettel.

On Dutch TV Verstappen even said that a pass on Bottas should never be nominated for overtake of the year, because he always leaves the door open (paraphrasing here). He then went on to say that you can ask anyone in the paddock that it's easy to pass Bottas, before talking about Hamilton being such a complete driver in comparison.

On topic:
On Autosport, Gary Anderson admitted that if he was involved in Mercedes if would have been very difficult for him not to replace Bottas with Ocon before the start of the season. I think I probably agree with him there. Ocon probably won't bother Hamilton all that much, but he won't be worse than Bottas for sure and still has years in front of him to become an even better driver.

So will Bottas bounce back? No, this is it.

That indeed was the thread I was referring to - and the first couple of posts other than the OP asks why is Lewis scared of sharing data and that he is perhaps intimidated.

Granted, my memory exaggerated my claims, but there were some who thought it was an act of weakness.

Nico's was up and down but overall I would say his race pace was superior to Bottas in 2015-2016.
2014, Nico had great 1 lap pace but his race pace was similar to Bottas.

It doesn't take much in terms of reliability/luck to turn a season. Give Hamilton 1 more DNF than Bottas and a couple of grid penalties and Bottas' would have beaten him in 2017 just like Nico did. Hamilton only beat him by 58 points and Bottas had a mechanical DNF from P3. Would have been 43 points if both had no mechical DNF. Give Hamilton a DNF in at say Monza and that is 11 points between them which would be covered by 1 or 2 grid penalties. Bottas wins a narrow WDC.

Yes, in a year where Hamilton didn't drive flawlessly. In a year like 2018, Hamilton is too far ahead for a few mishaps to turn the tables. I honestly don't see anything wrong with the idea that the better driver can lose to misfortune if he didn't drive perfectly.

_________________
PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 15 podiums): 3rd in 2016
TOP THREE CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): Champions in 2015 & 2018 | 2nd in 2017 & 2019
AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 USA & P-F1 Champion

Yes it happened in 2016.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

Hamilton drove as well in 2016 as he did 2014,2015 and 2017. Arguably better than some of those. He just got 60% of the cars dodgy clutch starts (not too high) but 90% of the reliability issues which was the killer. It’s his best season against Rosberg on many metrics.

Wolff indirectly has given Bottas a warning saying he needs to justify his seat at Mercedes for 2019. It won't be easy for him or any other driver to beat Hamilton often & with Ocon joining Mercedes as reserve driver, Bottas will be the driver with the most pressure in 2019. It feels Wolff is itching to put Ocon in the Mercedes car as soon as possible so it looks a little bleak for Bottas come 2020.
https://www.gpblog.com/en/news/28287/wolff-says-bottas-must-justify-his-place.html

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Feel The Fourth

Well he might have a better season but I think we've seen enough to know where he sits. He's good, but he's up against one of the best of all time at his peak. That's a high benchmark. I don't think Ocon is better..yet, but there's enough to suggest he has the potential to be better than Bottas. Bottas hasn't been *bad* this year I just think Hamilton has been pretty flawless and the reality is Bottas isn't at that level. No disgrace there but what jumps out is the unacceptable gap between the two in the WDC. If you believe the assertion that in terms of outright speed there's probably not more than 4/10th between the drivers, and you have a car that is capable of winning 10 races and winning the WDC, i think it's reasonable to expect nothing less than 2nd place in the WDC for the other driver. Bottas ended up with 161 points, two Ferraris and a Red Bull between him and Hamilton. Av points/race is 19.4 to 11.8 That's basically Lewis coming 1st/2nd every race with Bottas not even on the podium.

Even more worrying Bottas only had 1 retirement, Verstappen had 3 and Raikkonen 4 and they still finished ahead.

I like Bottas and he's handy enough, but for that seat...not good enough.

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"I'd rather lose a race going fast enough to win it, than win one going slow enough to lose it".
-Stirling Moss

The thing is, I haven't seen any good luck go Bottas's way this season. Verstappen won 1 of his races thanks to both Mercedes retiring. Kimi had multiple races near the start of the season where others retiring or messing up infornt of him gained him a lot of positions. baku as an example. He has easily gained a good deal of his missed points back by good fortune. And he had 3 retirements, not 4. Verstappen not so much but still a fair bit. I can't see any races where Bottas has been lucky due to things happening around him. I could even add Britain as an unfortunate outcome for Bottas. Mercedes shoulf have pitted him. They knew that the tyres would pass the recommended stint length before the end of the race. They pitted him a bit too early for that to work out so i don't know why they didn't get him a guaranteed podium. If I am correct, he had Vettel pass him pretty much bang on the lap the tyres has got to their reccomended limit, and they really quickly lost performance after that. Perhaps explaining why he couldn't hold the others back either. If there were no team orders in Russia and nothign else had changed, Bottas would be 3rd and not 5th. Bottas's main issue is self confidence letting him down. He looked super aggressive near the start of the season and if a little luck goes his way and not having several weekends like China, Baku and France and Austria all going wrong for him early on, I easily see him justifying his seat. He just lets things get to him and then he under performs sometimes.
The other thing is that when Bottas does under perform a bit, he's basically helped Hamilton get some wins this season. I'm not totally sure Hamilton will have won some of the last few races without Bottas holding several drivers up. As several of them did look quicker than Hamilton. And they will have got the best life out of their tyres while stuck behind Bottas. If Bottas had kept up with hamilton, they would to and quite possibly get past both. It was possibly just the wrong time to get an idea of hod good Bottas is at this team. He will have looked way better to many if they were dominant. Rosberg was overall better, but still don't think it is by much. I'm not sure how well Rosberg would manage being at the top, but with a good deal of races with 2 other teams as good as you or better. Rosberg seemed to get involved in more incidents than Bottas. or at least was blamed for them more. But he certainly was more aggressive when it came to overtaking.


I myself still think Bottas is going to be able to do enough to get a seat in 2020. What is this deal that he signed? They is no confirmation of Ocon driving at this team in 2020. But Bottas most certainly did sign a deal with an option to extend it from the wording used. If Bottas doesn't get the chance to remain at Mercedes or go to another strong team even if he is just decent next year, it seems just as harsh if not more so than not giving Ocon a drive.

1 and 2 in the WDC is fair enough if you have the best car, the Mercedes wasn't the best car it was edged out by the Ferrari, Bottas is not as good as Vettel so a realistic position for him was third if we take on board that he is better than Kimi?

Bottas simply had no luck plus team orders against him which cost him 2 wins and a bit more luck could easily have had 3 wins, and also had a car failure whilst running in second place, without all of this he would easily have finished 3rd in the WDC.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

I think his performance this year was good enough to keep his seat given his bad luck, team orders against him which he complied with without complaint and enabled Hamilton to comfortably close out the season and also enabled Mercedes to win the WCC.

However there is a desire to put Ocon in the car and another season like 2018 then I think Bottas will be gone, however you can't be too sad for Bottas if that happens, 3 years at a title winning team is more than most drivers get and it's enabled him to tick off some things like pole positions and race wins.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

Bottas never made a longish string of good results against Hamilton. Like Rosberg did. However, form is variable that can change in both drivers. It is possible that Bottas will bounce back.

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The end is near

Button is by no measure better than Rosberg.

Button was seriously flattered by Hamilton’s meltdown in 2011. In 2010 and 2012 he was typically further behind Hamilton than Rosberg was.

Bottas is a nothing racer. At least Rosberg made some very brave late-braking moves sometimes.

Rosberg’s race pace is also better than Bottas, so was his tyre management.