Re: CarlPotter's Top Three Championship 2017
Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:42 pm
Brazil
The ham
Bottas
Vettel
The ham
Bottas
Vettel
Herb and I the only ones who took Vettel?Exediron wrote:With almost everybody picking Lewis to win, I'm afraid his quali error has this one looking like a pretty anticlimactic race. If Vettel takes the lead we might see some points scored, but if they finish in the order they're starting we'll get a whole lot of duck eggs.
How much were you hoping for Ham to get Raikkonen?Bentrovato wrote:Herb and I the only ones who took Vettel?Exediron wrote:With almost everybody picking Lewis to win, I'm afraid his quali error has this one looking like a pretty anticlimactic race. If Vettel takes the lead we might see some points scored, but if they finish in the order they're starting we'll get a whole lot of duck eggs.
I was on the edge of my seat for the last 5 laps! Top three championship has delivered way more excitement than F1 itselfHerb wrote:How much were you hoping for Ham to get Raikkonen?Bentrovato wrote:Herb and I the only ones who took Vettel?Exediron wrote:With almost everybody picking Lewis to win, I'm afraid his quali error has this one looking like a pretty anticlimactic race. If Vettel takes the lead we might see some points scored, but if they finish in the order they're starting we'll get a whole lot of duck eggs.
I almost came to adjust my picks on Saturday morning. But got distracted then fell asleep...
I think really what it comes down to is that the Pick 10 is a consistency championship, and this one rewards getting it just right (but less often). You can be champion of the Pick 10 without ever winning a round, whereas I really can't imagine that happening here.mcdo wrote:It has to be said, the Top 3 is more difficult than the Pick 10. The Pick 10 has more players and more visibility... but this one is an absolute b*stard!
If you get close to the right order in the Pick 10 you'll score big. Only getting close in Top 3 gives you nothing but duck eggs. I honestly don't know which one I'd be more pleased at winning (come on TypingChicane... gimme one of them )
Both are fun and a different challenge. This one demands a more accurate prediction, and perhaps a little more luck as well, whereas Pick 10 is a little more forgiving but obviously requires you to think a little more. And then you've got The Oracle game, which feels like it is somewhere between the two in that your predictions have to be good but it also requires you to think about more than just who'll be the fastest two/three teams.Exediron wrote:I think really what it comes down to is that the Pick 10 is a consistency championship, and this one rewards getting it just right (but less often). You can be champion of the Pick 10 without ever winning a round, whereas I really can't imagine that happening here.mcdo wrote:It has to be said, the Top 3 is more difficult than the Pick 10. The Pick 10 has more players and more visibility... but this one is an absolute b*stard!
If you get close to the right order in the Pick 10 you'll score big. Only getting close in Top 3 gives you nothing but duck eggs. I honestly don't know which one I'd be more pleased at winning (come on TypingChicane... gimme one of them )
I also do think our championship deserves more players and visibility, but there is something to be said for having a tighter field of more engaged players.
I really consider predicting after FP2 to be the default in this championship, particularly since we changed the rule to extend the deadline to any time before FP3. I never intend my prediction to be final until after I've had a chance to look over the practice data.Jenson's Understeer wrote:The only thing I would change about this game is to perhaps introduce a small penalty for predictions made after FP1 or FP2. Maybe even as simple as a single point penalty if your prediction comes after FP2 has started, or one point per practice session that has commenced. That way you might get a little more variation in terms of points scored (instead of three people scoring 5 points, eight people scoring 3, and the rest all scoring 1, etc.) whilst also rewarding correct picks that are made prior to any running, which to me is more of an achievement than doing so after FP2, and should be rewarded as such. We might even end up with some minus scores if people predict after FP2, take a small penalty and get none of the top three correct!
Exediron wrote:I really consider predicting after FP2 to be the default in this championship, particularly since we changed the rule to extend the deadline to any time before FP3. I never intend my prediction to be final until after I've had a chance to look over the practice data.Jenson's Understeer wrote:The only thing I would change about this game is to perhaps introduce a small penalty for predictions made after FP1 or FP2. Maybe even as simple as a single point penalty if your prediction comes after FP2 has started, or one point per practice session that has commenced. That way you might get a little more variation in terms of points scored (instead of three people scoring 5 points, eight people scoring 3, and the rest all scoring 1, etc.) whilst also rewarding correct picks that are made prior to any running, which to me is more of an achievement than doing so after FP2, and should be rewarded as such. We might even end up with some minus scores if people predict after FP2, take a small penalty and get none of the top three correct!
However, I could see awarding a bonus for not predicting after practice, which would amount to the same thing. We can bounce the idea around a little bit; if I'm still curating the thread next year (which seems fairly likely) I'll provide a chance for people to vote on rule changes again ahead of the 2018 season.
I've thought about doing something with the scoring to add more variety (I very rarely have to fill all three steps of my scoring podium), but I think it's partly just a symptom of the perceived uncompetitiveness of the current grid that people all make similar predictions. You do have a point that encouraging people to pick before practice would dramatically increase the variation of the selections, which is a good argument for instituting some rule of that sort.
It wouldn't prevent anyone from guessing after FP2. I just look at the general trends and, as Exediron mentions, a lot of us predict after FP2 or alter our predictions then. The only reason to not do so? If you've made a prediction prior to FP1 that doesn't need to be changed. And it is exactly that kind of prediction I'd like to see better rewarded. Perhaps my referring to it as a penalty is too negative; it could be as simple as offering a bonus point for anyone who makes a correct prediction prior to FP1.mcdo wrote:My only issue with that is that you're bringing the Top 3 closer to the Pick 10
Pick 10 can often be a complete guess. You're going in cold with little information. If your small bit of knowledge and your gut feel are right you score big time. Get it wrong and you're not out of it by any means, you'll usually do OK regardless
Top 3 is actually an educated guess. It's based on data and results. Get your educated guess wrong and you get nothing. And that's the appropriate way to do it
Maybe it's just me but only having one competition rewarding wild guesses is enough for meJenson's Understeer wrote:Exediron wrote:I really consider predicting after FP2 to be the default in this championship, particularly since we changed the rule to extend the deadline to any time before FP3. I never intend my prediction to be final until after I've had a chance to look over the practice data.Jenson's Understeer wrote:The only thing I would change about this game is to perhaps introduce a small penalty for predictions made after FP1 or FP2. Maybe even as simple as a single point penalty if your prediction comes after FP2 has started, or one point per practice session that has commenced. That way you might get a little more variation in terms of points scored (instead of three people scoring 5 points, eight people scoring 3, and the rest all scoring 1, etc.) whilst also rewarding correct picks that are made prior to any running, which to me is more of an achievement than doing so after FP2, and should be rewarded as such. We might even end up with some minus scores if people predict after FP2, take a small penalty and get none of the top three correct!
However, I could see awarding a bonus for not predicting after practice, which would amount to the same thing. We can bounce the idea around a little bit; if I'm still curating the thread next year (which seems fairly likely) I'll provide a chance for people to vote on rule changes again ahead of the 2018 season.
I've thought about doing something with the scoring to add more variety (I very rarely have to fill all three steps of my scoring podium), but I think it's partly just a symptom of the perceived uncompetitiveness of the current grid that people all make similar predictions. You do have a point that encouraging people to pick before practice would dramatically increase the variation of the selections, which is a good argument for instituting some rule of that sort.It wouldn't prevent anyone from guessing after FP2. I just look at the general trends and, as Exediron mentions, a lot of us predict after FP2 or alter our predictions then. The only reason to not do so? If you've made a prediction prior to FP1 that doesn't need to be changed. And it is exactly that kind of prediction I'd like to see better rewarded. Perhaps my referring to it as a penalty is too negative; it could be as simple as offering a bonus point for anyone who makes a correct prediction prior to FP1.mcdo wrote:My only issue with that is that you're bringing the Top 3 closer to the Pick 10
Pick 10 can often be a complete guess. You're going in cold with little information. If your small bit of knowledge and your gut feel are right you score big time. Get it wrong and you're not out of it by any means, you'll usually do OK regardless
Top 3 is actually an educated guess. It's based on data and results. Get your educated guess wrong and you get nothing. And that's the appropriate way to do it
Completely agree with this. Top 10 is more guess work , while atleast here we can see the Friday practice and predict. It still won't be very good as many teams sand-bag during Fridays , or the occasional change in tyre pressures by Pirelli from Friday to Saturday will change the competitiveness of teams.mcdo wrote:My only issue with that is that you're bringing the Top 3 closer to the Pick 10
Pick 10 can often be a complete guess. You're going in cold with little information. If your small bit of knowledge and your gut feel are right you score big time. Get it wrong and you're not out of it by any means, you'll usually do OK regardless
Top 3 is actually an educated guess. It's based on data and results. Get your educated guess wrong and you get nothing. And that's the appropriate way to do it
I agree with this as well, although I can see both sides. Certainly I'm much more competitive with the educated guess - as reflected by the fact that I'm currently 21st out of 34 contestants in the Pick 10 (without using practice information) and 36th out of 149,132 contestants in the AutoSport GP Predictor (with practice information).mcdo wrote:My only issue with that is that you're bringing the Top 3 closer to the Pick 10
Pick 10 can often be a complete guess. You're going in cold with little information. If your small bit of knowledge and your gut feel are right you score big time. Get it wrong and you're not out of it by any means, you'll usually do OK regardless
Top 3 is actually an educated guess. It's based on data and results. Get your educated guess wrong and you get nothing. And that's the appropriate way to do it
I have PM'd you my picks. Can you please confirm if you received it?Black_Flag_11 wrote:Reminder
Can all of the top 7 PM me their predictions this weekend. So that’s:
TypingChicane
mcdo
TheDamus
Exediron
Bentrovato
Herb
Icemanjee1
It will be the PM’d predictions which take precedence over any posted in the thread so if you PM me but then change your mind make sure to PM me the changes as just posting them in the thread will not alter your official prediction. Good luck
Yes I’ve received yours, Herb’s and Bentrovato’s so farIcemanjee1 wrote:I have PM'd you my picks. Can you please confirm if you received it?Black_Flag_11 wrote:Reminder
Can all of the top 7 PM me their predictions this weekend. So that’s:
TypingChicane
mcdo
TheDamus
Exediron
Bentrovato
Herb
Icemanjee1
It will be the PM’d predictions which take precedence over any posted in the thread so if you PM me but then change your mind make sure to PM me the changes as just posting them in the thread will not alter your official prediction. Good luck
Personally I like the scoring how it is and even tho we get more info from practices its still not guarenteed points scoring as anything can happen in a race.Exediron wrote:I agree with this as well, although I can see both sides. Certainly I'm much more competitive with the educated guess - as reflected by the fact that I'm currently 21st out of 34 contestants in the Pick 10 (without using practice information) and 36th out of 149,132 contestants in the AutoSport GP Predictor (with practice information).mcdo wrote:My only issue with that is that you're bringing the Top 3 closer to the Pick 10
Pick 10 can often be a complete guess. You're going in cold with little information. If your small bit of knowledge and your gut feel are right you score big time. Get it wrong and you're not out of it by any means, you'll usually do OK regardless
Top 3 is actually an educated guess. It's based on data and results. Get your educated guess wrong and you get nothing. And that's the appropriate way to do it
My only real issue is that all too often everyone makes the same predictions, and there's not much to be done about that. Some of it is purely down to our own failings: Raikkonen has gathered 7 podiums this year, including 3 in a row, and nobody picked him for Brazil; similarly, Ricciardo has taken 9 podiums this year (meaning half of all races!) and people hardly ever put him up there. If there was some way to encourage people to take a bit of risk and spread the picks, I'd like to try it - but I agree, not at the cost of making the competition more of a lottery.
I'll still put it up to vote ahead of next season (so you can all keep thinking of proposals) but it sounds like sentiment is in favor of not altering the scoring right now.
Mayhem wrote:Personally I like the scoring how it is and even tho we get more info from practices its still not guarenteed points scoring as anything can happen in a race.Exediron wrote:I agree with this as well, although I can see both sides. Certainly I'm much more competitive with the educated guess - as reflected by the fact that I'm currently 21st out of 34 contestants in the Pick 10 (without using practice information) and 36th out of 149,132 contestants in the AutoSport GP Predictor (with practice information).mcdo wrote:My only issue with that is that you're bringing the Top 3 closer to the Pick 10
Pick 10 can often be a complete guess. You're going in cold with little information. If your small bit of knowledge and your gut feel are right you score big time. Get it wrong and you're not out of it by any means, you'll usually do OK regardless
Top 3 is actually an educated guess. It's based on data and results. Get your educated guess wrong and you get nothing. And that's the appropriate way to do it
My only real issue is that all too often everyone makes the same predictions, and there's not much to be done about that. Some of it is purely down to our own failings: Raikkonen has gathered 7 podiums this year, including 3 in a row, and nobody picked him for Brazil; similarly, Ricciardo has taken 9 podiums this year (meaning half of all races!) and people hardly ever put him up there. If there was some way to encourage people to take a bit of risk and spread the picks, I'd like to try it - but I agree, not at the cost of making the competition more of a lottery.
I'll still put it up to vote ahead of next season (so you can all keep thinking of proposals) but it sounds like sentiment is in favor of not altering the scoring right now.
Possible ideas
- if u predict before practice starts maybe a small bonus +2
- after fp1 +1
- to help variety we can do hidden entries through pm. (Some times it seems everyone just goes with the flow so that they arent left behind.)
Just some ideas
Said bonus Points should only be applied if you get the perfect podium going in blind. If your brave enough to take that risk then you should get something for it.Bentrovato wrote: I’m not crazy about bonus points just because it wouldn’t be an even playing field. This year was straightforward if you picked Hamilton-Vettel 1-2 every single race. Hindsight is 20/20
Got it. So you get an extra point or two by getting all 3 correct before FP1 starts. That’s not bad. I’d be 50/50 on rule changes. Won’t push for them, but not really opposing. I just found the knockout cup less interesting, but that could be because I wasn’t really involved in itMayhem wrote:Said bonus Points should only be applied if you get the perfect podium going in blind. If your brave enough to take that risk then you should get something for it.Bentrovato wrote: I’m not crazy about bonus points just because it wouldn’t be an even playing field. This year was straightforward if you picked Hamilton-Vettel 1-2 every single race. Hindsight is 20/20