planetf1.com

1 Ferrari
2 Red Bull
3 Mercedes
4 Renault
5 McLaren
6 Alfa Romeo
7 Toro Rosso
8 Haas
9 Racing Point
10 Williams

There will be nothing between the top 3.
A smaller gap than usual between top 3 and the rest, but still sizable.
Nothing at all between 4-8.
Little between Racing Point and Willams.
Although back at the grid, Williams will score more points than last season.

I read somewhere RP is basically 2018 car with some updates and their B spec should get ready by Australia. So another slow start to the season by them. I think P4 will be between Renault, Alfa Romeo and Mclaren with Haas and RP having some good races. Midfield will be great IMO.

Ferrari should start good again. But championship will really start from the second half and I think Mercedes will win again.

RBR should be competitive in the race. In qualifying it will be difficult for them to get into row2 on most tracks.

KingVoid wrote:

Zoue wrote:

KingVoid wrote:Gasly is going to surprise people in a positive way. I don’t expect him to match Verstappen or anything, but I believe that by the end of 2019, Bottas will be wildly regarded as the weakest driver of the top 3 teams.

I thought he already was tbh

As it stands right now, I think most people rate Bottas above Gasly.

I reckon Gasly’s gap in qualifying to Verstappen will be similar to Bottas-Hamilton, but Gasly will be more competitive and racy than Bottas on race day.

Imo Gasly will be the worse in the top 6 by a mile. Wasn’t impressed with how he fared against Hartley and now in pre season testing he has binned it twice, perhaps trying too hard to match what max is doing in the car. I foresee a bad season for him, unfortunately.

Bottas vs Raikkonen: I thought Bottas was better in 2017, but kimi outshined him in 2018. But with Bottas being relegated to wingman status halfway in I don’t think it’s quite fair to him. Still, if I had to pick the driver for my team out of these two I would pick Bottas.

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:If Leclerc shows himself to be better than Bottas that's not good for Bottas but if Leclerc matches Vettel what would that make Vettel given that being worse than Leclerc is not a good look because Leclerc himself is not top tier I would assume?

Wouldn't it be far more rational to assume that if Leclerc can beat Vettel, he is tier one? When Hamilton matched Alonso way back in 2007, it didn't prove that Alonso wasn't the driver we thought he was - it proved that Hamilton was special. If Leclerc can match Vettel, it will just be the same situation again.

I'm just going from the notion that apparently it's a bad thing for Bottas to be judged as being worse than Leclerc so Leclerc's level can't be that high?

There is a lot of assumptions being made before the season has even started based it seems on some statements that are questionable to begin with, like Kimi was better than Bottas and Gasly will also be better than Bottas.

pokerman wrote:

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:If Leclerc shows himself to be better than Bottas that's not good for Bottas but if Leclerc matches Vettel what would that make Vettel given that being worse than Leclerc is not a good look because Leclerc himself is not top tier I would assume?

Wouldn't it be far more rational to assume that if Leclerc can beat Vettel, he is tier one? When Hamilton matched Alonso way back in 2007, it didn't prove that Alonso wasn't the driver we thought he was - it proved that Hamilton was special. If Leclerc can match Vettel, it will just be the same situation again.

I'm just going from the notion that apparently it's a bad thing for Bottas to be judged as being worse than Leclerc so Leclerc's level can't be that high?

There is a lot of assumptions being made before the season has even started based it seems on some statements that are questionable to begin with, like Kimi was better than Bottas and Gasly will also be better than Bottas.

I think Kimi was certainly better than Bottas towards the end of 2018, which is what's fresh in everyone's mind. I have my personal doubts that Gasly will prove better than Bottas.

But it is, indeed, just speculation at this point. I'll just say that I fully expect Leclerc to prove better than Bottas. We don't know that yet, however.

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:If Leclerc shows himself to be better than Bottas that's not good for Bottas but if Leclerc matches Vettel what would that make Vettel given that being worse than Leclerc is not a good look because Leclerc himself is not top tier I would assume?

Wouldn't it be far more rational to assume that if Leclerc can beat Vettel, he is tier one? When Hamilton matched Alonso way back in 2007, it didn't prove that Alonso wasn't the driver we thought he was - it proved that Hamilton was special. If Leclerc can match Vettel, it will just be the same situation again.

I'm just going from the notion that apparently it's a bad thing for Bottas to be judged as being worse than Leclerc so Leclerc's level can't be that high?

There is a lot of assumptions being made before the season has even started based it seems on some statements that are questionable to begin with, like Kimi was better than Bottas and Gasly will also be better than Bottas.

I think Kimi was certainly better than Bottas towards the end of 2018, which is what's fresh in everyone's mind. I have my personal doubts that Gasly will prove better than Bottas.

But it is, indeed, just speculation at this point. I'll just say that I fully expect Leclerc to prove better than Bottas. We don't know that yet, however.

Well there are hard facts and then there is personal opinion, I don't understand why Bottas gets singled out for poor performances when Kimi has under performed in respect to his teammates for the last 5 years, last year in a car that was second to none Kimi managed 1 win and one pole position, Bottas had 2 pole positions and was robbed of 2 wins, one because of a safety car and one because of team orders, without team orders Bottas out scores Kimi in the WDC, as it is Kimi scored 4 more points than Bottas.

I don't see how it's so clear that Kimi performed better than Bottas and it's strange how it's seen as being a good season by Kimi, have we become accustomed to Kimi performing so poorly?

In respect to the post I replied to it comes across as Bottas just being seen as the worse of the worse and even before this season as begun, perceptions are strange when I see how strongly Vandoorne was defended after the complete thrashing he was given by Alonso, in this case we have to take into account the driver that beat Vandoorne.

Like you say both Leclerc and Gasly still have to prove themselves and it's kind of strange that Bottas should be seen as the weak link because Hamilton is better than him how do we assume these 2 drivers would perform better?

I can understand the pass given to Leclerc, he does look like he could be quite special, but Gasly he's done nothing thus far in F1 and what's he doing crashing the car twice heavily in testing, how does that foster confidence?

Mercedes-Benz wrote:I read somewhere RP is basically 2018 car with some updates and their B spec should get ready by Australia. So another slow start to the season by them. I think P4 will be between Renault, Alfa Romeo and Mclaren with Haas and RP having some good races. Midfield will be great IMO.

Ferrari should start good again. But championship will really start from the second half and I think Mercedes will win again.

RBR should be competitive in the race. In qualifying it will be difficult for them to get into row2 on most tracks.

RP were not concentrating at all on doing fast laps in either test. Understanding tyres & getting the balance right was their main priority. Their car was very basic but they're getting a major upgrade package in Australia & a B-Spec when the season resumes its European schedule from Spain.

pokerman wrote:Like you say both Leclerc and Gasly still have to prove themselves and it's kind of strange that Bottas should be seen as the weak link because Hamilton is better than him how do we assume these 2 drivers would perform better?

I can understand the pass given to Leclerc, he does look like he could be quite special, but Gasly he's done nothing thus far in F1 and what's he doing crashing the car twice heavily in testing, how does that foster confidence?

These are just predictions, nothing more.

Gasly became GP2 champion at the age of 20, the second youngest champions of that series. Only Rosberg won GP2 at a younger age. His performances in Bahrain and Hungary last season were also quite special.

Again, this is just my hunch. I don’t rate Gasly higher than Bottas right now, but I predict that he will prove himself to be better.

KingVoid wrote:

pokerman wrote:Like you say both Leclerc and Gasly still have to prove themselves and it's kind of strange that Bottas should be seen as the weak link because Hamilton is better than him how do we assume these 2 drivers would perform better?

I can understand the pass given to Leclerc, he does look like he could be quite special, but Gasly he's done nothing thus far in F1 and what's he doing crashing the car twice heavily in testing, how does that foster confidence?

These are just predictions, nothing more.

Gasly became GP2 champion at the age of 20, the second youngest champions of that series. Only Rosberg won GP2 at a younger age. His performances in Bahrain and Hungary last season were also quite special.

Again, this is just my hunch. I don’t rate Gasly higher than Bottas right now, but I predict that he will prove himself to be better.

Don't get me wrong I believe Gasly deserves the chance he has been given but in respect to GP2 he won that at his second attempt, the likes of Rosberg, Hamilton, Hulkenberg, Leclerc and Russell won at their first attempts and were all a similar age to Gasly:-

Rosberg - 20
Hamilton - 21
Hulkenberg - 22
Leclerc - 20
Russell - 20

There is nothing special about Gasly winning F2 in his second season aged 20 when the drivers above won the series as rookies.

Wild prediction, Gasly to be replaced by Kvyat at Red Bull mid season! (Lol)

Toro Rosso will make a few steps forward this year.
I read somewhere that when James Key left, they weren’t going to replace his exact position as they were going to share as many parts from the Red Bull as permitted. (Like Haas and Alfa are doing with Ferrari)

Leclerc imho is more mature than Max in his 2nd season (Vs Max’s 5th).
Leclerc will beat Vettel in Melbourne!

Does anyone have any bold post-testing, pre-Australia predictions?

I saw someone predict the other day that Verstappen will leave Red Bull at the end of the season

JN23 wrote:Does anyone have any bold post-testing, pre-Australia predictions?

I saw someone predict the other day that Verstappen will leave Red Bull at the end of the season

Here's some bold predictions!

Charles Leclerc will beat Vettel immediately in Melbourne.
Hamilton will win the title fairly easily despite not having a car advantage.
McLaren will have the fourth best car, but won't have the drivers to beat Renault.
The Honda engine is nowhere near as good as Red Bull claims, and they will fail to win a single race.
Someone will actually receive a race ban for dangerous driving, and it will be one of the Haas pair.

Bold enough?

Exediron wrote:

JN23 wrote:Does anyone have any bold post-testing, pre-Australia predictions?

I saw someone predict the other day that Verstappen will leave Red Bull at the end of the season

Here's some bold predictions!

Charles Leclerc will beat Vettel immediately in Melbourne.
Hamilton will win the title fairly easily despite not having a car advantage.
McLaren will have the fourth best car, but won't have the drivers to beat Renault.
The Honda engine is nowhere near as good as Red Bull claims, and they will fail to win a single race.
Someone will actually receive a race ban for dangerous driving, and it will be one of the Haas pair.

Bold enough?

Yes! That's what I'm after.

Here are some predictions and analysis from whatthefat aka F1Metrics...

https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/03 ... -analysis/

I found the following amusing, somehow:

"Last year, I concluded Mercedes had the edge coming out of preseason testing. This year, I have to say that Ferrari look strongest of the pair."

He has to say it.

Oh, and his model suggests that Leclerc should beat Vettel.

JN23 wrote:Does anyone have any bold post-testing, pre-Australia predictions?

I saw someone predict the other day that Verstappen will leave Red Bull at the end of the season

I'll have a go at some...

Leclerc to be WDC
Gasly replaced mid season
Norris podium in a mad wet race somewhere
Engine parity between teams by year end
FIA ban on some things related to the 'B' team situation

Invade wrote:Here are some predictions and analysis from whatthefat aka F1Metrics...

https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/03 ... -analysis/

I found the following amusing, somehow:

"Last year, I concluded Mercedes had the edge coming out of preseason testing. This year, I have to say that Ferrari look strongest of the pair."

He has to say it.

Oh, and his model suggests that Leclerc should beat Vettel.

I don't know where these statistics come from or how they are done. But to begin with, I don't see Leclerc being any closer to Vettel than Bottas is to Hamilton. As has been the case the last 2 seasons, during the first part of the season, Bottas has been pretty close to Hamilton.

I myself think Leclerc has been severely overrated. Considering he was a rookie, ok, it was very impressive (probably the most impressive in recent years), but remember, this was only his first season. The car was significantly better than the previous season, which possibly made him look better than he really was. He also had a very weak team mate who was not really a very good driver to compare him with. Sauber were sometimes in the points and sometimes not. How do we know if it was the car being inconsistent and not Leclerc or Ericsson? Leclerc certainly had 1 weakness and that was in the wet. I thought that was Ericsson's weakness, but he was obviously better than Leclerc in this area last year. So we can either say Ericsson is a good wet weather driver based on last year alone, or Leclerc was really poor.

I personally think that Leclerc is going to be no better than Kimi to begin with. I expect him to get better than Kimi was in time, but I doubt there will be much of a threat of beating Vettel at all this season. I think Verstappen is one of the few drivers who managed to really surprise in their 2nd season with how well they coped suddenly moving up to a top team. While Ricciardo also put in a surprise, it isn't like he didn't have experience behind him. And the car was nearly as new to Vettel as it was to him so that will have made things easier for him.
I don't think Ferrari will be significantly different to last year. So Vettel IMO will be extremely comfortable with it. It is his 5th year with the team and there are not dramatic changes like there were in 2014. Leclerc will have to have some time to get used to the team. I just don't see it being much, if any closer between Vettel and Leclerc than Hamilton and Bottas this season. But I certainly could be wrong.

Otmar has said the car which will be arriving in Australia is quite different to the one used for testing in Barcelona. They're starting the season with a big upgrade & have a good development plan for the rest of the season as well.

A lot of journalists, forum users etc. wrote them off as the 9th best team after testing but they deliberately held back during testing stating it as a strategic decision. I'm expecting good results but mainly from Perez due to his race experience & tenacity.

https://www.racefans.net/2019/03/12/rac ... irst-race/

Invade wrote:Here are some predictions and analysis from whatthefat aka F1Metrics...

https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/03 ... -analysis/

I found the following amusing, somehow:

"Last year, I concluded Mercedes had the edge coming out of preseason testing. This year, I have to say that Ferrari look strongest of the pair."

He has to say it.

Oh, and his model suggests that Leclerc should beat Vettel.

I wouldn't be a big fan of F1Metrics, in regards to winter testing I guess they are just using the same data as the F1 experts thus coming to the same conclusions?

In regards to Leclerc beating Vettel very bold, this is the first time I've seen them making a prediction based on their model and I'm not sure of what reference points they are using?

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Invade wrote:Here are some predictions and analysis from whatthefat aka F1Metrics...

https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/03 ... -analysis/

I found the following amusing, somehow:

"Last year, I concluded Mercedes had the edge coming out of preseason testing. This year, I have to say that Ferrari look strongest of the pair."

He has to say it.

Oh, and his model suggests that Leclerc should beat Vettel.

I don't know where these statistics come from or how they are done. But to begin with, I don't see Leclerc being any closer to Vettel than Bottas is to Hamilton. As has been the case the last 2 seasons, during the first part of the season, Bottas has been pretty close to Hamilton.

I myself think Leclerc has been severely overrated. Considering he was a rookie, ok, it was very impressive (probably the most impressive in recent years), but remember, this was only his first season. The car was significantly better than the previous season, which possibly made him look better than he really was. He also had a very weak team mate who was not really a very good driver to compare him with. Sauber were sometimes in the points and sometimes not. How do we know if it was the car being inconsistent and not Leclerc or Ericsson? Leclerc certainly had 1 weakness and that was in the wet. I thought that was Ericsson's weakness, but he was obviously better than Leclerc in this area last year. So we can either say Ericsson is a good wet weather driver based on last year alone, or Leclerc was really poor.

I personally think that Leclerc is going to be no better than Kimi to begin with. I expect him to get better than Kimi was in time, but I doubt there will be much of a threat of beating Vettel at all this season. I think Verstappen is one of the few drivers who managed to really surprise in their 2nd season with how well they coped suddenly moving up to a top team. While Ricciardo also put in a surprise, it isn't like he didn't have experience behind him. And the car was nearly as new to Vettel as it was to him so that will have made things easier for him.
I don't think Ferrari will be significantly different to last year. So Vettel IMO will be extremely comfortable with it. It is his 5th year with the team and there are not dramatic changes like there were in 2014. Leclerc will have to have some time to get used to the team. I just don't see it being much, if any closer between Vettel and Leclerc than Hamilton and Bottas this season. But I certainly could be wrong.

It's one thing to say that Leclerc will not beat Vettel then somewhat the opposite to say that Leclerc will be no better than Kimi in my opinion, I would venture Leclerc will be somewhere inbetween?

Lotus49 wrote:

JN23 wrote:Does anyone have any bold post-testing, pre-Australia predictions?

I saw someone predict the other day that Verstappen will leave Red Bull at the end of the season

I'll have a go at some...

Leclerc to be WDC
Gasly replaced mid season
Norris podium in a mad wet race somewhere
Engine parity between teams by year end
FIA ban on some things related to the 'B' team situation

I can see everything you said there happening except the first one. To me I think it is impossible for him to be Wdc this year.

pokerman wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Invade wrote:Here are some predictions and analysis from whatthefat aka F1Metrics...

https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/03 ... -analysis/

I found the following amusing, somehow:

"Last year, I concluded Mercedes had the edge coming out of preseason testing. This year, I have to say that Ferrari look strongest of the pair."

He has to say it.

Oh, and his model suggests that Leclerc should beat Vettel.

I don't know where these statistics come from or how they are done. But to begin with, I don't see Leclerc being any closer to Vettel than Bottas is to Hamilton. As has been the case the last 2 seasons, during the first part of the season, Bottas has been pretty close to Hamilton.

I myself think Leclerc has been severely overrated. Considering he was a rookie, ok, it was very impressive (probably the most impressive in recent years), but remember, this was only his first season. The car was significantly better than the previous season, which possibly made him look better than he really was. He also had a very weak team mate who was not really a very good driver to compare him with. Sauber were sometimes in the points and sometimes not. How do we know if it was the car being inconsistent and not Leclerc or Ericsson? Leclerc certainly had 1 weakness and that was in the wet. I thought that was Ericsson's weakness, but he was obviously better than Leclerc in this area last year. So we can either say Ericsson is a good wet weather driver based on last year alone, or Leclerc was really poor.

I personally think that Leclerc is going to be no better than Kimi to begin with. I expect him to get better than Kimi was in time, but I doubt there will be much of a threat of beating Vettel at all this season. I think Verstappen is one of the few drivers who managed to really surprise in their 2nd season with how well they coped suddenly moving up to a top team. While Ricciardo also put in a surprise, it isn't like he didn't have experience behind him. And the car was nearly as new to Vettel as it was to him so that will have made things easier for him.
I don't think Ferrari will be significantly different to last year. So Vettel IMO will be extremely comfortable with it. It is his 5th year with the team and there are not dramatic changes like there were in 2014. Leclerc will have to have some time to get used to the team. I just don't see it being much, if any closer between Vettel and Leclerc than Hamilton and Bottas this season. But I certainly could be wrong.

It's one thing to say that Leclerc will not beat Vettel then somewhat the opposite to say that Leclerc will be no better than Kimi in my opinion, I would venture Leclerc will be somewhere inbetween?

I think my words sort of imply that i don't expect him to be no better than kimi for long... ? So that is why I put after that, that this season is unlikely to be much of a threat for Vettel. If the points for the championship started mid way through the season, or we were talking about next year, then maybe I would have wrote differently. But anyway, I think we haven't had anywhere near enough evidence of what Leclerc is like yet to judge how well he well he will cope against top drivers. Vettel may make mistakes, but when he's on it, he's as good as Hamilton IMO, he just isn't as consistent.

kleefton wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

JN23 wrote:Does anyone have any bold post-testing, pre-Australia predictions?

I saw someone predict the other day that Verstappen will leave Red Bull at the end of the season

I'll have a go at some...

Leclerc to be WDC
Gasly replaced mid season
Norris podium in a mad wet race somewhere
Engine parity between teams by year end
FIA ban on some things related to the 'B' team situation

I can see everything you said there happening except the first one. To me I think it is impossible for him to be Wdc this year.

Yeah its a bold one. Any good showing from Leclerc and challenge to Seb probably works in Lewis's favour if anything because the wins would be split on Ferrari's best tracks so even if Leclerc can challenge Seb it could be tough to convert that to a drivers title if the Merc is clear second best at most places but has a couple it is the best on and Lewis delivers like he has been.

But I've just got a weird feeling Leclerc is going to shine and win it.

Exediron wrote:

JN23 wrote:Does anyone have any bold post-testing, pre-Australia predictions?

I saw someone predict the other day that Verstappen will leave Red Bull at the end of the season

Here's some bold predictions!

Charles Leclerc will beat Vettel immediately in Melbourne.
Hamilton will win the title fairly easily despite not having a car advantage.
McLaren will have the fourth best car, but won't have the drivers to beat Renault.
The Honda engine is nowhere near as good as Red Bull claims, and they will fail to win a single race.
Someone will actually receive a race ban for dangerous driving, and it will be one of the Haas pair.

Bold enough?

As Wild donkey Guesses (or WAGS) go I like your thinking. I don't think that KMag and RoGro have a lock on being the first to receive the race ban. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Max wasn't the one to get the dunce cap for a weekend. If Seb has a second half like 2018 I would almost put one of his red mist fits in the running for a free Grand Prix holiday.

I don't see Gasly being ejected from the Red Bull but would not be surprised if RoGro were not booted before the end of the year if he takes as long to get going as he did last year.