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When the podium has twelve steps.

mds wrote:They've taken a step forward, they were genuinely quicker than Sauber, but as I said above I don't feel like that's particularly exciting what with them running full power for the first time. It means that this is probably the biggest jump in performance relative to others you'll see for the entire year. Sure they still have tokens - but the others do too.

I've been wondering, is there any conformation that they were able to do that? I know we heard a lot coming into the weekend about how that was the goal, but I can't recall seeing it ever mentioned by McLaren that they were in fact able to do so.

Alonso finished 24 seconds behind Ricciardo in the end, but he was 26.77 seconds behind the leader when the SC got called in on lap 48.

Had the safety car stayed out one more lap and had the lapped pack been able to close up to the leaders, with to Verstappen's penalty and Ricciardo's front wing change, Alonso could have seriously been on the podium today.

KingVoid wrote:Alonso finished 24 seconds behind Ricciardo in the end, but he was 26.77 seconds behind the leader when the SC got called in on lap 48.

Had the safety car stayed out one more lap and had the lapped pack been able to close up to the leaders, with to Verstappen's penalty and Ricciardo's front wing change, Alonso could have seriously been on the podium today.

There was a point during the race, when the extent of Ricciardo's damage was unclear and Kvyat was under investigation and it wasn't fully clear what for or what the penalty might be, that I briefly thought we might see a Vettel - Verstappen - Alonso podium. Which I was then thinking could have been one of those podiums that goes down in history, like Spain 93, if Verstappen goes on to live up to the hype at least.

Standing trackside the Merc power unit sounded smooth and sweet, the Honda sounded like a chainsaw. I was genuinely shocked McLaren were so high on the timesheet on Friday. And then massively disappointed by their typical Saturday problems.

They did look on the pace with Toro Rosso, Lotus, etc. for a significant portion of the race. But I'm expecting a return to the usual at Spa and Monza.

mcdo wrote:Standing trackside the Merc power unit sounded smooth and sweet, the Honda sounded like a chainsaw. I was genuinely shocked McLaren were so high on the timesheet on Friday. And then massively disappointed by their typical Saturday problems.

They did look on the pace with Toro Rosso, Lotus, etc. for a significant portion of the race. But I'm expecting a return to the usual at Spa and Monza.

Alonso did say before that that's the way it's meant to sound like. Yeah I do remember seeing Alonso being faster than Sainz while Verstappen was getting away from Alonso. I think they were both ahead of the two Lotus cars at that point as well. Ironically, the only pair of cars that seemed to have a faultless race were the Mclarens! Although Alonso did have a puncture.

Exediron wrote:

mds wrote:They've taken a step forward, they were genuinely quicker than Sauber, but as I said above I don't feel like that's particularly exciting what with them running full power for the first time. It means that this is probably the biggest jump in performance relative to others you'll see for the entire year. Sure they still have tokens - but the others do too.

I've been wondering, is there any conformation that they were able to do that? I know we heard a lot coming into the weekend about how that was the goal, but I can't recall seeing it ever mentioned by McLaren that they were in fact able to do so.

Good question and I'm not sure. I'm inclined to think they were indeed running full power, because of a few reasons (conjecture, I know ):
- they still just edged getting into Q2 (well, Alonso did, Button didn't even make it that far). If they hadn't run full power, they might have attributed another underwhelming qualifying display to the fact that they couldn't run full power as expected - but we didn't hear that.
- their race pace though wasn't bad. They were largely running with the STR's, which they hadn't managed before.
- I haven't got any figures about their top speeds, but they seemed to be doing OK-ish in that regard. I think it was Alonso who convincingly flew past a Renault-engined car on the main straight, which is something we haven't seen before.

Problem is, let's face it. The weekend was not the first time they were able to hit points for both drivers. They had just faced reliability.

You also have to remember this was one of those few races where we had a lot of collisions, penalties, safety car and in Alonso's case - the right tyre choice.

They are still fighting for measly points and just had luck on their side this weekend. I still do not see a single podium this season (unless some insane luck) and come next year - I don't see much of a change. I personally see JB out of McLaren when they do fight for podiums and I am not too sure Alonso will be there when they are.

I honestly do not see McLaren fighting for wins within 2 Years, fighting for Podiums within 18 months and maybe the 2 Years too....

Teddy007 wrote:Problem is, let's face it. The weekend was not the first time they were able to hit points for both drivers. They had just faced reliability.

You also have to remember this was one of those few races where we had a lot of collisions, penalties, safety car and in Alonso's case - the right tyre choice.

They are still fighting for measly points and just had luck on their side this weekend. I still do not see a single podium this season (unless some insane luck) and come next year - I don't see much of a change. I personally see JB out of McLaren when they do fight for podiums and I am not too sure Alonso will be there when they are.

I honestly do not see McLaren fighting for wins within 2 Years, fighting for Podiums within 18 months and maybe the 2 Years too....

What you say is true - if extremely pessimistic - but doesn't answer the question - which of the teams, if any, will they beat this year?

Teddy007 wrote:Problem is, let's face it. The weekend was not the first time they were able to hit points for both drivers. They had just faced reliability.

You also have to remember this was one of those few races where we had a lot of collisions, penalties, safety car and in Alonso's case - the right tyre choice.

They are still fighting for measly points and just had luck on their side this weekend. I still do not see a single podium this season (unless some insane luck) and come next year - I don't see much of a change. I personally see JB out of McLaren when they do fight for podiums and I am not too sure Alonso will be there when they are.

I honestly do not see McLaren fighting for wins within 2 Years, fighting for Podiums within 18 months and maybe the 2 Years too....

Who would have thought Alonso would have finished ahead of Mercedes drivers who also completed the race. I think that says it all about the results in Hungary. Where Hamilton would have cruised to victory considering how ominous he was looking before Sunday.

I think Singapore too they can target some decent points. RBR too will be strong but otherwise it is going to be a struggle for them. Hungary will most likely be their best result of this year. Podium chance will be sometime next year

Herb wrote:

Teddy007 wrote:Problem is, let's face it. The weekend was not the first time they were able to hit points for both drivers. They had just faced reliability.

You also have to remember this was one of those few races where we had a lot of collisions, penalties, safety car and in Alonso's case - the right tyre choice.

They are still fighting for measly points and just had luck on their side this weekend. I still do not see a single podium this season (unless some insane luck) and come next year - I don't see much of a change. I personally see JB out of McLaren when they do fight for podiums and I am not too sure Alonso will be there when they are.

I honestly do not see McLaren fighting for wins within 2 Years, fighting for Podiums within 18 months and maybe the 2 Years too....

What you say is true - if extremely pessimistic - but doesn't answer the question - which of the teams, if any, will they beat this year?

I think you're in the wrong thread- this one is about when they will get a podium and Teddy007 if talking about exactly that.

mds wrote:

Herb wrote:

Teddy007 wrote:Problem is, let's face it. The weekend was not the first time they were able to hit points for both drivers. They had just faced reliability.

You also have to remember this was one of those few races where we had a lot of collisions, penalties, safety car and in Alonso's case - the right tyre choice.

They are still fighting for measly points and just had luck on their side this weekend. I still do not see a single podium this season (unless some insane luck) and come next year - I don't see much of a change. I personally see JB out of McLaren when they do fight for podiums and I am not too sure Alonso will be there when they are.

I honestly do not see McLaren fighting for wins within 2 Years, fighting for Podiums within 18 months and maybe the 2 Years too....

What you say is true - if extremely pessimistic - but doesn't answer the question - which of the teams, if any, will they beat this year?

I think you're in the wrong thread- this one is about when they will get a podium and Teddy007 if talking about exactly that.

My apologies, you are completely correct. Not sure how I did that.



Sorry Teddy007

mds wrote:

Exediron wrote:

mds wrote:They've taken a step forward, they were genuinely quicker than Sauber, but as I said above I don't feel like that's particularly exciting what with them running full power for the first time. It means that this is probably the biggest jump in performance relative to others you'll see for the entire year. Sure they still have tokens - but the others do too.

I've been wondering, is there any conformation that they were able to do that? I know we heard a lot coming into the weekend about how that was the goal, but I can't recall seeing it ever mentioned by McLaren that they were in fact able to do so.

Good question and I'm not sure. I'm inclined to think they were indeed running full power, because of a few reasons (conjecture, I know ):
- they still just edged getting into Q2 (well, Alonso did, Button didn't even make it that far). If they hadn't run full power, they might have attributed another underwhelming qualifying display to the fact that they couldn't run full power as expected - but we didn't hear that.
- their race pace though wasn't bad. They were largely running with the STR's, which they hadn't managed before.
- I haven't got any figures about their top speeds, but they seemed to be doing OK-ish in that regard. I think it was Alonso who convincingly flew past a Renault-engined car on the main straight, which is something we haven't seen before.

Don't know how reliable this source is, but:

http://en.f1i.com/news/20345-honda-ran- ... ngary.html

If true, then they did indeed run the engine at full.

Exediron wrote:

mds wrote:

Exediron wrote:

mds wrote:They've taken a step forward, they were genuinely quicker than Sauber, but as I said above I don't feel like that's particularly exciting what with them running full power for the first time. It means that this is probably the biggest jump in performance relative to others you'll see for the entire year. Sure they still have tokens - but the others do too.

I've been wondering, is there any conformation that they were able to do that? I know we heard a lot coming into the weekend about how that was the goal, but I can't recall seeing it ever mentioned by McLaren that they were in fact able to do so.

Good question and I'm not sure. I'm inclined to think they were indeed running full power, because of a few reasons (conjecture, I know ):
- they still just edged getting into Q2 (well, Alonso did, Button didn't even make it that far). If they hadn't run full power, they might have attributed another underwhelming qualifying display to the fact that they couldn't run full power as expected - but we didn't hear that.
- their race pace though wasn't bad. They were largely running with the STR's, which they hadn't managed before.
- I haven't got any figures about their top speeds, but they seemed to be doing OK-ish in that regard. I think it was Alonso who convincingly flew past a Renault-engined car on the main straight, which is something we haven't seen before.

Don't know how reliable this source is, but:

http://en.f1i.com/news/20345-honda-ran- ... ngary.html

If true, then they did indeed run the engine at full.

Yes, I read the same on the Marca website yesterday evening.

According to this report they will be getting a further 45BHP upgrade after the summer brake. In the small print though they think they are 120BHP down on Mercedes, so they will still have a considerable deficit. The report also claims they will have used up nearly all, or possibly even all, of their tokens with the upgrade, too. So a mixed bag

15% of us are now wrong.

What was your original prediction, and has it changed since you made it? I still think 2017 but maybe I rate the chances of a fluke third place in 2016 a bit higher after Hungary.

Liket wrote: What was your original prediction, and has it changed since you made it?

Second half of 2016. I'm going to stick to that.

mds wrote:

Liket wrote: What was your original prediction, and has it changed since you made it?

Second half of 2016. I'm going to stick to that.

Me too. I guess second half would start after summer break?

dizlexik wrote:

mds wrote:

Liket wrote: What was your original prediction, and has it changed since you made it?

Second half of 2016. I'm going to stick to that.

Me too. I guess second half would start after summer break?

Summer break divides season into 12 and 9 races.
Hmm... If they get podium in between those, then second half starts after summer break. Else, second half starts after race 10.

mds wrote:

dizlexik wrote:

mds wrote:

Liket wrote: What was your original prediction, and has it changed since you made it?

Second half of 2016. I'm going to stick to that.

Me too. I guess second half would start after summer break?

Summer break divides season into 12 and 9 races.
Hmm... If they get podium in between those, then second half starts after summer break. Else, second half starts after race 10.

Keep being creative

Liket wrote:What was your original prediction, and has it changed since you made it? I still think 2017 but maybe I rate the chances of a fluke third place in 2016 a bit higher after Hungary.

I said first half of 2016, and while it sounds a bit optimistic now I probably wouldn't change it. I will say I expect they'll either get one in the first half of 2016 or not until 2017 - their ability to take podiums in 2016 is going to be down to the engine development, and if that isn't right at the start of the season it's not gonna be.

Not for a long long time.

I'm still as pessimistic as my "After both drivers have left the team" vote

Actually, did anyone read Craig Scarborough's Q&A on Autosport? He was asked one question about McLaren not making significant steps forward despite their budget. I copied this snippet:
"Progress through 2015 was enormous. This wasn't always apparent on track, but by the season's end the car had changed immeasurably and a solid direction had been found for 2016.

I don't think McLaren has to justify its 2015 programme, but similar failure in '16 may be less easy to swallow."

http://plus.autosport.com/premium/featu ... 1391611055

Button was pretty much midfield in Abu Dhabi, despite being 25 km/h slower than Mercedes powered cars down the straight. If Honda can sort their engine out and make it at least Ferrari-level, McLaren could be right up there.

I voted 2017 and I have seen no reason to want to change it.

Covalent wrote:I voted 2017 and I have seen no reason to want to change it.

Can you elaborate why? IMO even if Honda is as bad as Renault last season, podium seems very possible. McLaren has quite good chasiss and very good drivers.

dizlexik wrote:

Covalent wrote:I voted 2017 and I have seen no reason to want to change it.

Can you elaborate why? IMO even if Honda is as bad as Renault last season, podium seems very possible. McLaren has quite good chasiss and very good drivers.

Well I think for them to get some podiums next year both their reliability and speed need to improve by quite a bit, and as they were still very far from achieving that at the end of this season I just don't see them being anything better than a midfield team next year. The drivers are good but Alonso seems to have given up and Jenson is more a steady performer than someone to pull out something extraordinary from the hat to produce a surprise podium with that package.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong though.

Covalent wrote:

dizlexik wrote:

Covalent wrote:I voted 2017 and I have seen no reason to want to change it.

Can you elaborate why? IMO even if Honda is as bad as Renault last season, podium seems very possible. McLaren has quite good chasiss and very good drivers.

Well I think for them to get some podiums next year both their reliability and speed need to improve by quite a bit, and as they were still very far from achieving that at the end of this season I just don't see them being anything better than a midfield team next year. The drivers are good but Alonso seems to have given up and Jenson is more a steady performer than someone to pull out something extraordinary from the hat to produce a surprise podium with that package.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong though.

I agree with everything except the drivers. Why would either of them have any motivation to keep going when things go wrong during a GP? Especially when pushing their PU components any further would probably result in ridiculous penalties at the next round? That's not giving up - it's being a bit smart and thinking everything through

And Jense is the exact kinda guy you want to pull out an alternative strategy and produce the goods and bring it home. Many a driver in a crap car got into a position for a big result and failed

mcdo wrote:

Covalent wrote:

dizlexik wrote:

Covalent wrote:I voted 2017 and I have seen no reason to want to change it.

Can you elaborate why? IMO even if Honda is as bad as Renault last season, podium seems very possible. McLaren has quite good chasiss and very good drivers.

Well I think for them to get some podiums next year both their reliability and speed need to improve by quite a bit, and as they were still very far from achieving that at the end of this season I just don't see them being anything better than a midfield team next year. The drivers are good but Alonso seems to have given up and Jenson is more a steady performer than someone to pull out something extraordinary from the hat to produce a surprise podium with that package.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong though.

I agree with everything except the drivers. Why would either of them have any motivation to keep going when things go wrong during a GP? Especially when pushing their PU components any further would probably result in ridiculous penalties at the next round? That's not giving up - it's being a bit smart and thinking everything through

And Jense is the exact kinda guy you want to pull out an alternative strategy and produce the goods and bring it home. Many a driver in a crap car got into a position for a big result and failed

Well he gave up in the last race where Jenson was going for a good result, I don't think the penalties carry over the off-season? True about about Jenson and the alternative strategy, so if I knew there'd be a race in changeable conditions at a specific track that might suit the McLaren anyway, I'd be more inclined to believe in a podium too.

The second half of 2016, after the summer break, strikes me as the most likely (unless something has gone horribly wrong with their plans for next year, which I'm working under the assumption hasn't happened). That will leave room for some in-season development, and if they start with a much better engine next year, it doesn't seem unrealistic.

Of course, there's also the question of how far above the field Mercedes will be next year. If they're pretty much guaranteed to take up two slots on the podium like this season, and Ferrari or another team other than McLaren has nearly caught them, it could take longer than that without being a sign of no progress. I'm going to guess that they'll at least be fighting for podiums by then, though.

I said Early 2016, that's still possible IMO.

Assuming they move at least into the midfield (perhaps a big assumption!), they can make it onto the podium, both Lotus and Force India managed it last year (as did Red Bull, who were high-mid field last year).

First half of 2016 is up soon, and the closest they got was Alonsos 5th in Monaco. I'd be amazed if they manage to do it at Spielberg or Silverstone.

I haven't been paying that close attention to engine components this year, but isn't Alonso already sniffing at grid penalties?

As they're still even struggling for points at some tracks, it's starting to look like my 2017 vote wasn't too pessimistic. Looks like they're pretty much tied for 7th best car with Haas and not looking like they're going anywhere soon.

Liket wrote:First half of 2016 is up soon, and the closest they got was Alonsos 5th in Monaco. I'd be amazed if they manage to do it at Spielberg or Silverstone.

I haven't been paying that close attention to engine components this year, but isn't Alonso already sniffing at grid penalties?

As they're still even struggling for points at some tracks, it's starting to look like my 2017 vote wasn't too pessimistic. Looks like they're pretty much tied for 7th best car with Haas and not looking like they're going anywhere soon.

Voted 2017 too, but looks like I was optimistic. They are nowhere near the pace, and the competition if fierce.

Would be fun if they do it in 2018, the only option NO ONE voted for =)

Then again, it could very well coincide with both drivers having left the team...

Teddy007 wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:They're in bigger trouble than most expected.

Corrected for you.

I for one said they were in trouble at the start of the season when they were 4-5? seconds off the pace at Australia. I said they would struggle and even their first points in Monaco wasn't special. When you are having to rely on a "less" power required track to get a few points, that really does say it all.

McLaren have realised how much work is required just to get in the top 10 which for McLaren is beyond incredibly poor.

I took my original quote and still stand by it. Which is no answer at all and certainly not within 12 months. Maybe just maybe later next year but in all honesty that's my nice hat.

Bold( prediction: Vandoorne on the podium in the opening race of 2017. For a bonus point, he laps Jenson Button in a struggling Williams in the final few laps.

No many tracks will suit McLaren this season. Probably just Hungary? Maybe Singapore?

Only two races left to keep me from being wrong...

C'mon, Silverstone! Give us a soaking wet race of attrition!

EDIT: Unless the first half is just before the summer break? In which case, Hungary offers a slim glimmer of hope.

Exediron wrote:Only two races left to keep me from being wrong...

C'mon, Silverstone! Give us a soaking wet race of attrition!

EDIT: Unless the first half is just before the summer break? In which case, Hungary offers a slim glimmer of hope.

It's not just bad weather you need, it's quite a few cars in front to crash out or make huge mistakes.

You need a team to wipe each other out, aka Merc. Ferrari/Red Bull to make huge mistakes. Force India and Williams to fight over what's left which allows McLaren to snatch a podium.

Considering how much they need going for them to scrap in to the points.... it isn't looking good for them to get 5th again for a few races let alone a podium. And considering how much went their way to get that 5th.... I think that is going to be their best result in 2016. I see maybe 4th being their best result with a lot of luck in 2017 maybe even 5th again. And in F1 when problems, crashes, mistakes etc can cause half the grid to be out of position you would think luck would give them something....